Energy

EASY SQUEEZY:

40% of US electricity is now emissions-free (JOHN TIMMER – 12/28/2023, Ars Technica)

If we combine nuclear and renewables under the umbrella of carbon-free generation, then that’s up by nearly 1 percent since 2022 and is likely to surpass 40 percent for the first time.

The only thing that’s keeping carbon-free power from growing faster is natural gas, which is the fastest-growing source of generation at the moment, going from 40 percent of the year-to-date total in 2022 to 43.3 percent this year. (It’s actually slightly below that level in the October data.) The explosive growth of natural gas in the US has been a big environmental win, since it creates the least particulate pollution of all the fossil fuels, as well as the lowest carbon emissions per unit of electricity. But its use is going to need to start dropping soon if the US is to meet its climate goals, so it will be critical to see whether its growth flat lines over the next few years.

Outside of natural gas, however, all the trends in US generation are good, especially considering that the rise of renewable production would have seemed like an impossibility a decade ago.

THAT WAS EASY:

Uruguay’s green power revolution: rapid shift to wind shows the world how it’s done: Stung by 2008’s oil price spike, Uruguay now produces up to 98% of its electricity from renewables. Can other countries follow suit? (Sam Meadows, 27 Dec 2023, The Guardian)

It was the 2000s, and fossil fuel prices were rising worldwide. After a period of volatility in the 1980s, the crude oil price per barrel had reached one of its lowest points – $20 – at the end of 2001 but then, over the course of six years, it tripled before a new oil shock saw prices surpass those of the 1970s, reaching a record $145 a barrel on 3 July 2008.

Uruguay imports its oil, so it had a problem. Demand for energy in the country had grown by 8.4% the previous year and household energy bills were increasing at a similar rate. The 3.4 million-strong population was becoming restless. Lacking alternatives, President Tabaré Vázquez was forced to buy energy from neighbouring states at higher prices, even though Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay had a mutual aid agreement in case of emergency conditions.

To escape the trap, Vázquez needed rapid solutions. He turned to an unlikely source: Ramón Méndez Galain, a physicist who would transform the country’s energy grid into one of the cleanest in the world.

Today, the country has almost phased out fossil fuels in electricity production. Depending on the weather, anything between 90% and 95% of its power comes from renewables. In some years, that number has crept as high as 98%.

Tax the externalities of oil and we’re transitioned by 2030.

ELECTRIC DEFLATION:

Six reasons to be optimistic about the energy transition: Yes, the world is hooked on fossil fuels, but Canary Media’s experts are still hopeful about the rise of clean energy. Here’s why. (Staff, 28 December 2023, Canary Media)

The economics are on the side of climate solutions

The core technologies for the first phase of the energy transition — solar, wind, batteries and heat pumps — are getting so affordable that demand for them will soon outweigh the institutional inertia that stands in their way.

Solar and wind power are now by far the cheapest source of new electricity generation, both globally and in the U.S., and those trends are set to continue. Lithium-ion battery prices have fallen to record lows again after a brief Covid-induced uptick, meaning it’s more affordable than ever to store wind and solar power for hours at a time. That same trend is also driving down the cost of electric vehicles, which can already outcompete gas cars on a lifetime basis in most parts of the country. And heat pumps, which are less expensive than ever thanks to federal tax credits, continue to demonstrate that they’re far more efficient at heating (and cooling) than conventional methods — even in the cold.

Together, these technologies alone are enough to get us far along the decarbonization pathways for electricity generation, transportation and buildings. The victories — for the climate, for consumers and for the companies that can capitalize on these technological realities — are there for the taking. — Jeff St. John

The Right hating Greens won’t stop economics.

DRIVING SUCKS…:

We Own More Cars Than Ever. So Why Are We Driving Less? (David Harrison, Dec. 25, 2023, WSJ)

All those vehicles had to stay in the garage during the pandemic. Now, with the pandemic largely behind us, many of those vehicles are still there.

As of 2022, the number of trips Americans took had fallen by more than a third compared with 2017, according to surveys conducted by the Transportation Department. (A trip here is defined as going from one place to another. In other words, driving to the grocery store and back counts as two trips.)

The rise of remote work accounts for some, but not all, of this decline. Shopping, restaurant dining and recreational trips, regardless of travel mode, are all down from 2017. The pandemic has turned us into homebodies.

…homes are good.

WE CAN’T GET RID OF THEM FAST ENOUGH:

STUDIES SHOW ONE DAILY ROUTINE IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING OUR HEALTH (Jeremiah Budin, December 25, 2023, The Cool Down)

The study, conducted by researchers in Spain, found that the amount of time a person spends commuting to work in a car directly correlates to decreased sleep, increased depression, and increased feelings of being under pressure, Business Insider reported.

The study’s findings echo other reports that driving a car makes people less happy and less healthy. According to one study conducted in Sweden, couples in which one partner commutes for more than 45 minutes are 40% more likely to end in divorce, reported Slate.

According to the American Heart Association, people who drive to work instead of taking the train or bus are at greater risk of high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity, as the Huffington Post noted.

SO BY 2040 THEN…:

Electric utility plans are consistent with Renewable Portfolio Standards and Clean Energy Standards in most US states (Grace D. Kroeger & Matthew G. Burgess, 12/18.23, Climatic Change)

Electricity is one of the easiest—and therefore most urgent—sectors to decarbonize. In the USA, state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Clean Energy Standards (CES) are key policy tools pursuant to this objective. These policies mandate that electric utilities achieve specified renewable compositions on specified timelines. In recent US history, electricity has been decarbonizing faster than major agencies predicted, which raises the question of whether utilities are decarbonizing faster than RPS and CES targets prescribe. We address this question by comparing state-level RPS and CES targets to historical progress and stated decarbonization targets from 220 utilities, comprising at least 52% of sales in every state and 76% of sales on average. In 18 of 26 states with current RPS or CES and 9 of 11 states with expired RPS or CES, utilities’ generation and targets meet, nearly meet, or exceed state targets. We project that utility targets and linear progress thereafter put six states without current RPS or CES on track for over 90% renewable electricity by 2050, and they put US electricity on track to reach 100% renewable by 2060.

No matter how much the Right hates the environmentalists they can’t stop an economic revolution.

THANKS, VLAD!:

Renewables to exceed half of German electricity use in 2023 ((AFP, Dec 18, 2023)

According to preliminary figures, Germans will consume a total of around 517 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity this year, compared with 540 billion kWh in 2022.

Some 52 percent of that will come from renewables, compared to 47 percent in 2022, the agency said.

THAT WAS EASY:

US nuclear-fusion lab enters new era: achieving ‘ignition’ over and over (Jeff Tollefson, 12/17/23, Nature)

In December 2022, after more than a decade of effort and frustration, scientists at the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) announced that they had set a world record by producing a fusion reaction that released more energy than it consumed — a phenomenon known as ignition. They have now proved that the feat was no accident by replicating it again and again, and the administration of US President Joe Biden is looking to build on this success by establishing a trio of US research centres to help advance the science.

The stadium-sized laser facility, housed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California, has unequivocally achieved its goal of ignition in four out of its last six attempts, creating a reaction that generates pressures and temperatures greater than those that occur inside the Sun.

THE MINIMUM JOB EXPECTANCY:

Free electric vehicle charging at work? It’s possible with optimum solar (SPX, Dec 18, 2023)

The global surge in electric vehicle sales has prompted an Australian university to explore how it could offer free or nominal EV charging facilities to staff and students by optimising its solar PV system and minimising workplace electricity costs.
Engineering researchers based at the University of South Australia (UniSA) Mawson Lakes campus say that using renewable energy to power EV day charging is the key, lowering electricity grid demand in the evening and helping to support Australia’s net zero emission targets by 2050.

Both The Wife and I have free charging at work, meaning we’ve very nearly never spent a cent to power our vehicle.

TRANSITORY IS AS TRANSITORY DOES:

Utility rate roundup: Decreases for Eversource and Unitil, controversy for Liberty (HADLEY BARNDOLLAR, DECEMBER 18, 2023, NH Bulletin)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural gas prices to decline by 24 percent from last winter. In New England, natural gas is used to produce roughly half of the region’s electricity.

Last year’s exorbitant cost of energy was mainly attributed to the war in Ukraine, the region’s overreliance on natural gas, and extreme weather events, utilities have said.