Russia

UNFAIR TO VILLAGES:

Putin’s ‘Cringe’ Weekend of Humiliation: His effort to put on a show of strength didn’t fool anyone. (Cathy Young, Jun 09, 2026, The Bulwark)

RUSSIAN PUNDITS AND JOURNALISTS ABROAD HAD CHOICE WORDS to describe the just-concluded St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: “A freak show.” “A fake.” “A Potemkin village.” For that matter, even the quasi-dissident Russian businessman Dmitry Potapenko, who still lives in Russia and was in attendance at the event, remarked in a YouTube interview that there was “more cringe” (yes, “krindzh” is now a Russian word) than usual—perhaps the perfect way to describe this year’s installment a once-prestigious event dating back to 1997.

For striking examples of krindzh, look no further than the American guest list, where the big names were conspiracy-theory blogger Candace Owens (who is known for many things, but the one Russian commentators found especially juicy was her crusade to prove that French First Lady Brigitte Macron is a man) and “influencer” Andrew Tate, who is also known for many things, especially multiple charges of human trafficking and sexual assault, including against minors. Even many Kremlin loyalists were annoyed by Tate’s presence—among them Ekaterina Mizulina, a prominent crusader for “traditional values” and for a “safe Internet” (i.e., censorship), who grumbled that Russia has enough of its own “dubious bloggers” and doesn’t need to import them. For some reason, no one pointed out that the forum’s American lineup included a convicted child molester, former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who spoke on a panel and shared his wisdom that “today Europe is a rabid dog.”

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

Erdogan and Putin, the End of an Unlikely Partnership (Gonul Tol, 6/07/26, NY Times)

Ukraine has already been capitalizing on the Iran war by cultivating closer military ties with Gulf states. When Iran attacked neighboring countries with Shahed-136 kamikazes, the same drones that Russia has used in Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky quickly sought to leverage Ukraine’s experience, dispatching air defense teams to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.


Turkey, which has strong military ties with the Gulf, sees Ukraine’s growing role as a complement to Ankara’s relationships that will allow it to expand what it’s offering. For Russia, which has spent years developing closer economic and security ties with Gulf monarchies, the shift is yet another setback. [….]

It’s clear that Ankara is no longer balancing between Moscow and NATO and is tilting the field against Mr. Putin. Russia’s decline has given Turkey, after a decade of deference to Moscow, the freedom to pursue its interests. Ukraine is the beneficiary.

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

Thanks largely to robots, Ukraine is now talking about winning, not just surviving: Uncrewed and autonomous systems—and the willingness to adapt to them—have neutered Russian advantages. (Patrick Tucker | June 2, 2026, Defense One)

A small but growing number of European officials and analysts are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn’t just surviving its grueling war with Russia, it is in some ways thriving and may even be on a path to victory.

This isn’t yet captured in headlines—for example, about last weekend’s barrage of Russian drones and missiles around Ukraine—but in the details, like how some 90 percent were intercepted.

Several long-term trends have shifted in Ukraine’s favor, and the core reason is its fierce focus on AI and robotics.

In the crucible of war, Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory—even take it back.

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

I’m the Foreign Minister of Sweden. Russia’s Economy Is More Fragile Than It Seems. ( Maria Malmer Stenergard, 5/20/26, NY Times)

Russia has claimed that its economy grew by around 13 percent between 2020 and 2024, but by measuring nighttime luminosity, an established way of assessing economic activity in countries where official statistics are not available or cannot be trusted, we have estimated that the economy actually contracted by around 8 percent during this period.

We also believe inflation is substantially understated. In 2024, when inflation in Russia was reportedly around 10 percent, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 21 percent, suggesting that inflation was higher. And Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service believes that it is higher than the current official forecast of around 5 percent. This would mean Russia is overstating its purchasing power, and that its military spending capacity is weaker than it appears.

COMIC GOLD:

Is This Cuddly, Big-Eared Rascal Leading Russia to Ruin?: Instead of obsessing over the fictional Cheburashka, Russians should be focused on more important things like the rebirth of a Russian empire, influential conservatives say. (Alexander Nazaryan, March 16, 2026, NY Times)

The standard-bearer of the anti-Cheburashka crusade has been Aleksandr G. Dugin, an influential political theorist with ties to the Kremlin who envisions Russia embracing Orthodox Christianity and regaining influence over parts of Eastern Europe and Asia. Mr. Dugin’s religious nationalism has found traction in the West, and he has been interviewed by Tucker Carlson and the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.

His pronouncements have become strikingly apocalyptic since his daughter, Daria, died in 2022 in a car bombing that U.S. intelligence agencies believe was directed by Ukraine.


Shortly after “Cheburashka 2” premiered, Mr. Dugin took to Telegram, where he offered a blunt assessment. If Russia were to continue its “unhealthy” obsession with Cheburashka, he warned, “God will surely curse us.” Mr. Dugin was more explicit in a subsequent radio interview with the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, blaming Cheburashka for destroying the Soviet Union. (Mainstream historians generally point to other reasons.)

THANKS, VLAD!:

Why Russia has come to the table (Peter Caddick-Adams, 11/28/25, Englesberg Ideas)

Russia’s economy is imploding. Largely due to sanctions caused by the Ukraine War, this year the Economics Ministry posted a record mid-year budget deficit of 3.7 trillion roubles ($45.8 billion) and the Central Bank expects the full-year deficit to reach $55 billion, or 2 per cent of GDP. This is almost certainly the reason peace proposals with Ukraine have surfaced again. […]

Traditionally, the Kremlin has leant heavily on oil and gas exports to generate cash; in 2024, earnings from these exports contributed around 30 per cent of total federal budget revenue. However, from an average price listing of $71.10 per barrel of Urals crude in November 2022, due to sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, reliance on its aging and inefficient ‘shadow tanker’ shipping fleet, and a G7-imposed price cap, after three years, traders report the price of Russian oil has slid to $36.61 per barrel, with other OPEC producers replacing the Urals output. As key export buyers, notably China and India, were threatening to search elsewhere for suppliers, by November 2025 Russian sellers had been obliged to discount their black stuff to an average of $23.52 a barrel.

Thus, the Kremlin has turned to selling assets it cannot replace.

Ukraine needs to increase its demands, starting with regime change.

THE LINCOLN BRIGADES MAY HAVE BEEN JUST DUPES…:

Preface to the Ukrainian Edition of Animal Farm (George Orwell, March 1947)

In the early stages of the war foreigners were on the whole unaware of the inner struggles between the various political parties supporting the Government. Through a series of accidents I joined not the International Brigade like the majority of foreigners, but the POUM militia—i.e. the Spanish Trotskyists.

So in the middle of 1937, when the Communists gained control (or partial control) of the Spanish Government and began to hunt down the Trotskyists, we both found ourselves amongst the victims. We were very lucky to get out of Spain alive, and not even to have been arrested once. Many of our friends were shot, and others spent a long time in prison or simply disappeared.

These man-hunts in Spain went on at the same time as the great purges in the USSR and were a sort of supplement to them. In Spain as well as in Russia the nature of the accusations (namely, conspiracy with the Fascists) was the same and as far as Spain was concerned I had every reason to believe that the accusations were false. To experience all this was a valuable object lesson: it taught me how easily totalitarian propaganda can control the opinion of enlightened people in democratic countries.

My wife and I both saw innocent people being thrown into prison merely because they were suspected of unorthodoxy. Yet on our return to England we found numerous sensible and well-informed observers believing the most fantastic accounts of conspiracy, treachery and sabotage which the press reported from the Moscow trials.

And so I understood, more clearly than ever, the negative influence of the Soviet myth upon the western Socialist movement.

…but the fact is they were serving Stalin, not the Spanish people.

COMPLETE WITH THEIR OWN CHEETO NAPOLEON:

‘Animal Farm’ Never Gets Old: Orwell’s classic turns 80. (Cathy Young, Sep 26, 2025, The Bulwark)

The Soviet parallels in the novel, in which animals on a farm run by the drunk and abusive Mr. Jones band together to drive out their two-legged oppressors and set out to build a haven of freedom and equality for all beasts, are very explicit—right down to specific characters, events, and symbols. Napoleon, the crafty boar who eventually becomes Animal Farm’s totalitarian dictator with a personality cult, clearly represents Stalin; his rival Snowball, who co-leads the revolution but gets outmaneuvered, forced into exile, and branded a traitor—and blamed for everything that goes wrong on the farm—is Trotsky with trotters. (Early on, there’s also a Marx-Lenin mashup: Old Major, the wise boar who inspires the revolt before dying and has his skull reverentially displayed on a post, much like Lenin’s mummified body in the mausoleum in Red Square.) The farm’s flag—a white hoof and horn on a green field—echoes the red flag with the hammer and sickle. Like the early Soviet revolutionaries, the animals throw themselves into enthusiastic labor to make their experiment work, and normal practices turn into political projects: “the Egg Production Committee for the hens,” “the Clean Tails League for the cows,” and “the Whiter Wool Movement for the sheep.”

Soon, the resemblances turn much darker. In an episode that clearly echoes the Holodomor, the mostly man-made famine Stalin used to break the back of peasant resistance to collectivization (and crush Ukrainian nationalism), hens who resist orders to surrender their eggs for trading are starved into submission. Later, the purges and show trials begin. As the assembled animals watch in horror, four pigs who had criticized Napoleon earlier are dragged before him by his pack of trained hounds, confess to treasonous collaboration with Snowball, and are at once dispatched by the same dogs. […]

But in 2025, Americans may be reading this novel with somewhat different eyes than in times gone by, when strongman rule, cult-like worship of leaders, and reality-denying propaganda were things that happened somewhere else. Today, it’s hard to read Orwell’s mordant description of the extravagant panegyrics to Napoleon (“two cows, enjoying a drink at the pool, would exclaim, ‘Thanks to the leadership of Comrade Napoleon, how excellent this water tastes!’”) and not think of the examples we are witnessing daily—from the downright idolatrous sensibility common among Trump’s base to administration officials falling all over each other to heap praise on Trump at a cabinet meeting, or a member of Congress telling reporters Trump is “never wrong,” or press secretary Karoline Leavitt gushing, “Cracker Barrel is a great American company, and they made a great decision to Trust in Trump!” Likewise, when Orwell wryly notes that the animals “had nothing to go upon except Squealer’s lists of figures, which invariably demonstrated that everything was getting better and better,” one can’t help thinking of Trump firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner who wouldn’t deliver that message.

The rewriting of slogans, the insidious conspiracies invoked to explain anything that goes wrong, the propaganda chief convincing the other animals that things they saw with their own eyes didn’t happen or happened very differently: The parallels are all over the place.

While the normals keep the aspidistra flying…

THANKS, VLAD!:

The Real Meaning of Putin’s Middle East Failure (Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani, July 25, 2025, Foreign Affairs)

But over the past 20 months, Russia’s standing in the Middle East has cratered. Israel’s response to Hamas’s October 7 attacks has devastated the so-called axis of resistance, the Iranian-backed network with which Russia had forged close ties. The Assad regime in Syria, long a valuable Russian client, collapsed spectacularly. U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities severely weakened Russia’s most important regional ally. As a result, Russia’s reputation as a patron and guarantor of security in the region lies in tatters. In the new Middle East now taking shape, Moscow is no longer needed.

Moscow’s failures will resound beyond the Middle East. Whether the result of Putin’s conscious decision not to intervene or of the Kremlin’s inability to do so, Russia’s abandonment of partners in the region should be a sobering lesson for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party: that in times of crisis, Russia will not be a reliable ally.

There is no bear in the woods

VLAD IS THE ENEMY:

Westerners foolishly rush to defend Azerbaijan against Russia (Eldar Mamedov, Jul 09, 2025, Responsible Statecraft)

Since Azerbaijan’s 2023 reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, which sidelined Russian peacekeepers and exposed Moscow’s waning regional influence, President Ilham Aliyev has pursued an assertive foreign policy. Aliyev’s sharp public criticisms of Russia over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Russian airspace in December 2024 — in which he demanded accountability, compensation, and justice—signaled a newfound combativeness toward Moscow, marking a departure from Baku’s traditionally cautious diplomacy with its powerful neighbor.

Backed by Turkey and courted by the West for its energy exports, Azerbaijan aims to dominate the South Caucasus and serve as a critical energy hub for Central Asian exports to Europe that bypasses Russia.

Baku’s ambitions center on the proposed Zangezur Corridor, a transit route through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey. This corridor, under prospective Ankara-Baku control, aligns with Western efforts to reduce reliance on Russian hydrocarbon export but is strongly opposed by both Russia and Iran, who fear it would bolster Turkish influence at their expense.

Armenia, caught in the middle, faces intense pressure, with Aliyev threatening military action if Yerevan resists.

Armenia’s own pivot complicates the situation. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western government has distanced itself from Moscow, freezing its participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and signaling openness to NATO membership. Yet, this leaves Armenia isolated, as Western support remains largely rhetorical while Azerbaijan’s threats are tangible. Domestically, Pashinyan’s crackdown on opponents, labeled as “pro-Russian forces,” further destabilizes the country.

Encouraged by the growing geopolitical convergence between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some Western diplomats have rushed to back Baku, seeing an opportunity to push Russia out of the South Caucasus.