60-40 Nation

CONFORMITY IS THE WISDOM OF CROWDS:

Against Angst: Most teen movies encourage rebellion and nonconformity, but a few offer lessons in prudence (Peter Tonguette, 8/24/25, American Conservative)

Based on a play by William Inge, the 1955 drama Picnic revolves around the competing dispositions and worldviews of two sisters in Kansas, the pretty and fawned-over Madge (Kim Novak) and the tomboyish and ignored Millie (Susan Strasberg), who seems to conceive of herself in opposition to her sibling. When we meet her in the film, Millie is first seen bouncing a basketball that she soon trades for a book and a cigarette—sure signs that she is an apostate to the conventions of mid-American life at midcentury. By contrast, Madge is first encountered drying her “silly hair,” as Millie calls it, while hanging her head outside of her window.

In fact, Inge leans on Millie to offer remarks on and against the real and imagined provincialism of the town into which she was born and from which she eagerly hopes to one day flee. For example, urged by her mother and sister to find herself a date for the Labor Day picnic, Millie says, “I will dress and act the way I want,” before arming herself with a baseball cap and eyeglasses and digging ever deeper into her copy of The Heart is a Lonely Hunter—just the sort of mildly literary, slightly scandalous book that signals to the audience her delusions of grandeur.

Not that I considered Millie deluded at all when I saw the movie all those years ago. I took her perspective as a rally cry. Having grown up on The Catcher in the Rye and Dead Poets Society, I loved it when Millie said, “When I graduate from college, I’m going to New York and write novels that’ll shock people right out of their senses.” Moving to New York, writing novels, upsetting the pieties of narrow-minded readers—it all sounded so worthwhile, so glamorous, so clearly right.

Yet the movie comes to a different conclusion. The great issue in the story is whether Madge will marry a fellow named Hal (William Holden), a wayward drifter who nonetheless has great reserves of magnetism, charm, and decency. At the decisive moment, Millie, of all people, encourages Madge to take the risk of going with Hal. She is careful to clarify that the path she is urging for her sister is not one she will ever take: “I’m never going to fall in love. Not me. I’m not going to live in some jerkwater town and marry some ornery guy and raise a lot of grimy kids.” Then, getting up from the bed where she was sitting, Millie exhorts Madge to choose another way: “But just because I’m a dope doesn’t mean you have to be.”

THE CULTURE WARS ARE A ROUT:

U.S. Drinking Rate at New Low as Alcohol Concerns Surge (Lydia Saad, 8/13/25, Gallup)

The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend. This coincides with a growing belief among Americans that moderate alcohol consumption is bad for one’s health, now the majority view for the first time.

TAXING AND SPENDING ARE INVARIANT:

Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL (The Big Picture, March 24, 2025)

GETTING THE KITTENS TO CHASE THE LASER PEN:

Bringing Elon to a knife fight: Wishing for a more orderly disruption may misunderstand the nature of government reform (Jennifer Pahlka, Dec 13, 2024, eating Policy)

I am guessing that those most worried that DOGE will succeed have never tried their hand at reforming government. It’s hard. But easier, you say, with no respect for the law, and the DOGE team will be unencumbered by such details. But that’s not true. The lawsuits will come. A lot of the government tech community is skipping the hand wringing; they’ve basically just grabbed a bag of popcorn and are watching in real time as Elon and Vivek learn all the things they’ve known, lived, and absolutely hated for their entire time in public service. They don’t see DOGE as their savior, but they are feeling vindicated after years of shouting into the void. I am struck by how different the tone of the DOGE conversation is between political leaders on the left and the people who’ve been fighting in the implementation trenches. One group is terrified they’ll succeed. The other is starting to ask a surprising question (or at least I am): What if even billionaires can’t disrupt the system we have built?

Take the issue of respect for the law. Put aside the headline grabbing issues for a second and live in the mundane world of implementation in government. If you’ve spent the past ten years trying to make, say, better online services for veterans, or clearer ways to understand your Medicare benefits, or even better ways to support warfighters, you’ve sat in countless -– and I mean countless — meetings where you’ve been told that something you were trying to do was illegal. Was it? Now, instead of launching your new web form or doing the user research your team needed to do, you spend weeks researching why you are now branded as dangerously lawless, only to find that either a) it was absolutely not illegal but 25 years ago someone wrote a memo that has since been interpreted as advising against this thing, b) no one had heard of the thing you were trying to do (the cloud, user research, A/B testing) and didn’t understand what you were talking about so had simply asserted it was illegal out of fear, c) there was an actual provision in law somewhere that did seem to address this and interpreting it required understanding both the actual intent of the law and the operational mechanics of the thing you were trying to do, which actually matched up pretty well or d) (and this one is uncommon) that the basic, common sense thing you were trying to do was actually illegal, which was clearly the result of a misunderstanding by policymakers or the people who draft legislation and policy on their behalf, and if they understood how their words had been operationalized, they’d be horrified. It is absolutely possible to both respect the rule of law, considering the democratic process and the peaceful transfer of power sacred, and have developed an aversion to the fetishization of law that perverts its intent. The majority of public servants I know have well earned this right.

DOGE is about to crash into this wall of weaponization of the complexities of law, policy, regulation, process, and lore in defense of the status quo and yes, the people in my community are watching. While our eyes are on potential abuses, they are also on the durability of the wall generally, and with deeply mixed emotions. It must be said: the wall is a problem. It is a problem for people who value the rule of law. It is a problem for people who care about an effective, responsive government.

NEOLIBERAL WE:

Poll: 63% of Americans Want to Increase Trade with Other Nations, 75% Worry Tariffs Are Raising Consumer Prices (Emily Ekins, 8/07/24, Cato)

A newly released national survey from the Cato Institute of 2,000 Americans conducted by YouGov finds that two-thirds (66%) of Americans say global trade is good for the US economy, and 58% say it has helped raise their standard of living. This may help explain why 63% of the public favors the United States increasing trade with other nations.

Three-fourths (75%) are concerned about tariffs raising the prices of products they buy at the store. Indeed, two-thirds (66%) of Americans would oppose paying even $10 more for a pair of blue jeans due to tariffs, even if they are intended to help US blue jean manufacturing.

60-40 NATION:

Behind the Curtain: America’s reality distortion machine (Jim VandeHei & Mike Allen, 4/13/24, Axios)

[O]n almost every topic of monthly outrage, it’s a fringe view — or example — amplified by the loudest voices on social media and politicians driving it.

No, most Christians aren’t white Christian nationalists who see Donald Trump as a God-like figure. Most are ignoring politics and wrestling with their faith.

No, most college professors aren’t trying to silence conservatives or turn kids into liberal activists. Most are teaching math, or physics, or biology.

No, most kids don’t hate Israel and run around chanting, “From the river to the sea.” On most campuses, most of the time, students are doing what students have always done.

No, most Republicans don’t want to ban all abortions starting at conception. No, most Democrats don’t want to allow them until birth.

No, immigrants who are here illegally aren’t rushing to vote and commit crimes. Actual data show both rarely happen — even amid a genuine crisis at the border.

No, most people aren’t fighting on X. Turns out, the vast majority of Americans never tweet at all.

No, most people aren’t cheering insults on Fox News and MSNBC in the evening. Turns out, less than 2 percent of Americans are even watching.