One Economy to Rule Them All

THE rIGHT IS THE lEFT:

Dear conservatives, industrial policy is a dead end (Samuel Gregg, 26 May 2026, CapX)

Industrial policy is in fact already widespread in Western societies. State subsidies, special tax write-offs, outright capital grants and joint public-private enterprises are rife in developed economies. The differences are really about scale and form.

One reason why many governments have often been reluctant to acknowledge the degree to which they promote such practices are the well-documented economic and political problems associated with industrial policy.

Among other things, these include: 1) the fact that governments cannot know everything they would need to know if they were to design successful industrial policies; 2) the massive opportunity costs associated with diverting scarce resources to less productive economic sectors; 3) industrial policy’s inherently political nature and its consequent susceptibility to political machinations and rampant cronyism.

Then there is the reality that the world’s economies are littered with powerful examples of industrial policy failure. Japan was once considered the poster child for industrial policy success. In the 1980s, many American commentators insisted that unless the US imitated Japan’s extensive use of industrial policy, it risked being supplanted by Japan as the world’s economic superpower.

The irony is that from the early-1990s onwards, Japan started slipping into its ‘Lost Decades’ of stagnation, and there is little doubt that industrial policy played a leading part in facilitating that decline. Indeed, one of the most comprehensive studies of industrial policy’s long-term impact upon Japan concluded that it produced ‘little, if any positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare’.

This track record should cause conservatives to be more wary of industrial policy, including the current Chinese variety.

AS IF HE WAS SECRETLY TRYING TO DISCREDIT THE ECONOMICS OF THE lEFT:

The triple toll of Trump’s terrible tariffs: Ultimately, American workers and consumers suffer three different ways. (Tom Schaller, May 25, 2026, Public Notice)

Yes, tariff receipts temporarily ended up in Washington. But those taxes were paid indirectly, via increased retail prices, by every American who bought imported goods or products made from imported components. Yale Budget Lab estimated the price tag per American at $2,400 per year, which is almost how long tariffs were in effect until the Supreme Court’s February 20 decision. Because it’s nearly impossible for individual citizens to compute how much they paid in tariffs, no less apply for reimbursements, most will get nothing.

ASSEMBLING STUFF WE INVENT IS WHAT COLONIES ARE FOR:

How I Became a Manufacturing Skeptic (Dani Rodrik, 5/12/26, Project Syndicate)

In recent years, I have become skeptical about the viability of the traditional industrialization-led growth model. I have argued for a different model of economic growth, emphasizing the development of productive capabilities in labor-absorbing, mostly non-tradable services. I have warned policymakers in Africa and other developing regions that trying to emulate the East Asian model would produce, at best, manufacturing enclaves, with a tiny sliver of productive firms integrated into global value chains while the bulk of the labor force remains stuck in low-productivity activities.

Mexico exemplifies this outcome. As Santiago Levy, a former Mexican deputy minister of finance, pointed out at the same conference, Mexico’s exports of manufactured goods have increased more than tenfold since the country joined the United States and Canada to form the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. At the doorstep of a giant market and with policymakers determined to promote foreign trade and inward investment, few countries were blessed with better circumstances for export-oriented industrialization. Yet Mexico’s overall economic performance has been dismal, even by undemanding Latin American standards, with a declining productivity trajectory.

OPEN THE BORDERS:

Using trade to undergird peace (Alan Wm. Wolff, May 20, 2026, PIIE)

To only see the WTO as a trade agreement, without appreciating its role as a peace project, is to overlook a central element of its value. Through its Trade for Peace initiative and the accession of conflict-affected countries, the WTO is seeking to carry forward the lessons learned from members that have experienced conflict, using trade integration and institution-building to support stability and reconstruction. Conflict-affected countries that are in the process of acceding include: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Iraq, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Lebanon. (Iran has had observer status since 2005; its accession process is paused.)

The accessions process is designed to deliver, particularly to fragile and conflict-affected countries needed economic stability and growth, made possible by adhering to the organization’s rules for trade. It brings external discipline to bear, as well as opening economic opportunities. It aims at deeper integration of acceding countries into the world economy. Reforms at home are central to the benefit of acceding and being a WTO member. The WTO Chief Economist, Robert Staiger, on a panel at Yaoundé, Cameroon, during MC 14, the most recent WTO Ministerial Conference said that: “Economic arguments and evidence produced by WTO economists suggest that the largest benefits from market access bargaining in the GATT/WTO, whether for accession or during a multilateral negotiating round, are associated with the reduction of economic distortions in one’s own economy, distortions that are reduced by one’s own reciprocal market access liberalization.” An important benefit of WTO membership is the external discipline and pressure for economic reform that it provides. This can be especially valuable for conflict-affected and least-developed countries, which are often more conscious of their institutional and developmental needs than wealthier countries are of their own.

History Ends everywhere.

ACHIEVING ABEL:

The Politics of Jobless Prosperity (Andy Hall, May 13, 2026, Free Systems)


In the scenario the labs are sketching, the politics of AGI will be the politics of jobless prosperity. And this makes it hard to forecast well. The economy will be growing rapidly even as jobs disappear, more like the Industrial Revolution or the China Shock than a normal recession, with mass disruption alongside the explosive enrichment of a small class of elites at the top. Voters in this world will not be anxious about a shrinking economy but furious about being shut out of a booming one, and they may well stop the boom from arriving at all. Jasmine Sun has documented how this anxiety is already curdling into nascent political anger, observing that “the anti-elite and nihilistic attitudes that have dominated US political culture in the last few years are transmuting into anger at AI billionaires.” Alex Imas, in “What will be scarce?“, has made the most careful economic case for taking the underlying disruption seriously, even while laying out why both the short and long-term doomers may be wrong about mass unemployment.

The labs see all of this coming, which is why their policy memos have grown so ambitious. It would be easy to read this as good news, since the parties who would have to pay for redistribution are pre-emptively volunteering to do it.

But it cannot work. First, social contracts tend to get extracted from the powerful by the affected, not handed down from above to a public that has not yet decided what it wants.

An economy exists to create wealth, which becomes ever easier as we remove labor and energy costs. Distribution of that wealth is a political question, which the many will determine.

PITY THE POOR MALTHUSIANS:

The Simon Abundance Index 2026: Earth was 536.4 percent more abundant in 2025 than it was in 1980.(Marian L Tupy and Gale Pooley, Apr 22, 2026, Doomslayer)

The Simon Abundance Index (SAI) measures the relationship between resource abundance and population. It combines the per-person abundance of 50 basic commodities with the size of the world’s population into a single number. The index began in 1980 with a base value of 100. In 2025, the SAI stood at 636.4, indicating that resources have become 536.4 percent more abundant over the past 45 years. All 50 commodities in the dataset were more abundant in 2025 than they were in 1980. The global abundance of resources increased at a compound annual growth rate of 4.20 percent, thus doubling every 17 years.

IT’S A PURITAN NATION:

The Happy Capitalism of Richard Scarry’s Busytown: Welcome to the pro-market world of children’s book author and illustrator Richard Scarry. (Elizabeth Nolan Brown, June 2026, reason)

To me, the book’s most notable feature is its uncomplicated and nonchalant promotion of free market economics. Again and again in What Do People Do All Day?, Scarry illustrates how capitalism can benefit both buyer and seller. Busytown characters use their labor and skills to provide products and services their neighbors want and, in exchange, earn money that they use to fulfill their own families’ needs or invest in their own business activities.

What makes this especially great is that the book’s pro-market bent feels more incidental than ideological. This isn’t a book that hits readers over the head with a particular worldview. Rather, it implies a defense of free market capitalism just by describing the simple and symbiotic way that free markets work.

FORGETTING THE LESSON OF THE THIRD WAY:

Tiptoeing Towards Abundance?: Even when thriving markets are the goal, progressives have little interest in restraining the state. (Samuel Gregg, 4/01/26, Law & Liberty)

Given such opposition, it seems unlikely that supply-side progressivism will triumph anytime soon on the American left. That, however, raises the question of whether abundance liberalism could help facilitate some unexpected political realignments. Might, for example, there be opportunities for strategic or tactical alliances between abundanistas on the one hand, and classical liberals and fiscal conservatives on the other?

Those who believe in free markets have good reason to be disillusioned with the American right. It has been disturbing to witness the willingness of many conservative commentators and organizations once committed to free markets to contort themselves to conform to the latest economic nationalist policy. Equally problematic is some conservatives’ hard-to-disguise prioritization of acquiring power—or, in some instances, being seen in close proximity to it—over a principled adherence to economic liberty and limited government. Expediency has become the rule in far too many conservative circles, and the reputational cost is real.

But does this mean that classical liberals and fiscal conservatives can do business with those on the American center-left who are persuaded that there is value in abundance liberalism? Is there sufficient compatibility between, for example, their respective views of regulation to make substantive and lasting cooperation feasible?

I would not want to rule out the possibility of tactical or issue-specific alliances between supply-side progressives and free marketers. Politics often produces unlikely bedfellows, and it is possible to imagine partnerships focused on reducing excessive red tape. That said, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the prospects for any major collaboration, let alone a lasting political realignment.

One significant obstacle to any substantive alliance is the fact that abundance liberals are not fundamentally in the business of reducing the sway of government power throughout the economy. On the contrary, they think that a core goal of supply-side progressivism is to make the government more powerful through greater efficiency. A desire to engage in smart as opposed to ham-fisted industrial policy is different from being skeptical of industrial policy per se.

Moreover, the abundance liberals show little interest in a long-standing priority of American free marketers: reducing the size and growth of America’s ever metastasizing entitlement programs. Progressives are critical of Klein and Thompson’s willingness to prioritize other goals over maintaining and growing the welfare state. Yet that does not mean that anyone on the left is open to substantially reforming entitlement programs along the lines supported by President Clinton in the mid-1990s or affirming Clinton’s claim in his 1996 State of the Union address, “The era of big government is over.”

Debates over the size and reach of government bring us to another factor likely to obstruct any constructive conversation between supply-side progressives and free marketers: the reality that many influential segments of the progressive left—trial lawyers, public sector unions, environmentalists, government workers, university administrators, etc.—derive much of their power (not to mention, in some cases, their incomes) from precisely the type of complicated and growing nest of regulations that abundance liberals want to tackle. It is not clear why any of these actors would compromise critical foundations of their economic well-being and political power to enhance the abundance of goods throughout the economy. These hard political facts would raise real questions about the abundanistas’ ability to deliver on their side of any bargain that they made with fiscal conservatives.

Lastly, and most significantly, there is a basic incongruity between free marketers’ and supply-side progressives’ respective views of the state. Classical liberals and fiscal conservatives want strong and preferably constitutionally grounded limits on the state’s capacity to pursue interventionist policies. That is not the position of supply-side progressives.

Klein and Thompson, for instance, are careful to praise progressive totems such as the New Deal for its “boldness” and for cementing into policy-stone the belief that “the federal government must take an active role in managing the American economy and protecting workers.” But no serious free marketer is going to affirm either the New Deal or the notion that any government should—or even can—“manage” an economy that reached the size of approximately $31.49 trillion (nominal GDP) in 2025. Trying to make the government more efficient at directing economic life is not the same thing as making the state less economically intrusive.

These and related questions make any lasting rapprochement between free marketers and abundance liberals unlikely. And that creates challenges for both, not the least being the frustrations associated with relative political isolation for as long as the progressive left and nationalist right exercise hegemony over their respective spheres of American politics.

The “abundance” crew have forgotten the insight of the Third Way (Blair, Clinton, etc.): you can use First Way (capitalist) means to generate ever greater wealth to fund the Second Way’s ends (a secure social safety net)

AN ECONOMY EXISTS TO CREATE WEALTH, NOT JOBS:


Why Europe doesn’t have a Tesla (Pieter Garicano, 17th February 2026, Works in Progress)


What really sets Europe apart from states like California is different. Relative to income, it costs large companies four times more to lay off Germans and French than American workers, a difference arising entirely from different regulatory approaches. As a result, it virtually never happens: Americans are ten times more likely to be fired than Germans in any given year. In this respect, the European economy differs greatly from the American one. By American standards, a European business has to be exceptionally confident that it will want an employee for a long time before hiring them.

This may sound like a great virtue of European life, and in a way it is. But it has costs. If it is expensive to fire people, then companies may pay them less in order to balance out employment costs, or they may not employ people at all. To understand the innovation gap, however, there is a third effect that is even more important. If it is expensive to lay people off, employers avoid creating jobs that they might subsequently discontinue. Innovation involves experimentation and risk, so jobs in innovative areas of the economy are more likely to be discontinued than jobs elsewhere. High severance costs create a fundamental incentive for European businesses to avoid innovative areas and concentrate on safe, unchanging ones. In the long run, this is a recipe for decline.