Anglospherics

THE IRON LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES:

Electoral reform won’t save the Republicans or the Democrats (David L. Leal, 05/16/26, The Hill)

Decades of research have found that socioeconomic status, and particularly education, is key to explaining voter turnout. To understand why, consider this formula: Voting likelihood equals benefits minus costs, plus duty. The benefits of voting are small for individuals, but so is the cost. While few have cast the deciding ballot in an election, voting usually requires minimal effort.

However, in “The Turnout Myth,” my Hoover Institution colleague Daron Shaw and his coauthors discuss a large “diploma gap” that has existed for decades. We see turnout differences across education levels, with the most educated about twice as likely to vote, at 80 percent, as the least, at 40 percent.

Scholars explain this in several ways: First, education reinforces the belief that voting is a civic obligation, or duty. Second, education increases knowledge about politics and government. Voting is easier when you’re familiar with the issues and parties. Third, education enhances civic skills such as public speaking, group organizing and managing paperwork that can make political participation easier.

People with more education therefore have lower costs and higher duty, which leads to greater turnout among them. Education is also associated with higher incomes and professional occupations, which allow individuals to better meet any financial or time costs of voting.

So, when voting is made more challenging, the more educated are, on average, more motivated and able to overcome the obstacles than are people with less education.

And in today’s politics, those individuals are increasingly likely to be Democrats.

BREXIT SQUANDERED:

What Britain needs to learn from America: Who’s laughing now? (Henry Oliver, 5/18/26, The Pursuit of Liberalism)

Indeed, in many ways, England has been left behind. When you leave London and the South East, you quickly find a standard of living that is low by international standards. A recent poll of three thousand people found that more than half of Brits thought the UK would rank as the seventh-richest state if it joined the USA.1 In reality, we would rank fifty-first, with a lower GDP per capita than any of the fifty states. London is competitive with New York, but the North East is not competitive with the American South.

But Britain is in denial: a few years ago, even the FT claimed the US was a poor country with some rich people, but as Noah Smith pointed out, “the median American earns more income than the median resident of almost any other country on the planet.” He went on to explain that Americans considered to be poor would be doing relatively well by British standards.

…someone at around the 18th percentile of income in America in 2019 — a working-class person on the edge of being considered poor — lived in a household making $21,400 a year. That’s about the same as the median income of households in Japan, and about 84% of the median income of households in the UK.

In other words, a working-class American on the edge of poverty makes as much as a middle-class person in some rich countries.

US gas prices might be over $4 a gallon at the national average this spring thanks to the war in Iran, but that is still half of what petrol costs in England thanks to high taxes. The British government is going to ban traditional dryers, which people hardly use because British electricity prices are among the highest in Europe, while Americans have relatively low-cost energy and run their dryers all the time. In London, it is normal to live with wet laundry in the house. The British who are sceptical of America like to ask, why do I need a bigger fridge? without having lived with the joy of a fridge that can actually hold enough food for a hungry family.

The standard of living in Britain has hardly improved since the financial crisis. In 1990, the GDP per capita of the USA was $44,379 and in the UK it was $32,993. By 2024 the numbers were $75,489 and $52,621. (Expressed in international dollars at 2021 prices.) The UK, in other words, is about as rich as the USA was in 1998. And the gap is widening. US GDP is 15% higher than the pre-pandemic level. UK GDP is 6% higher. The IMF predicts GDP growth of over 2% for the USA and of less than 1% for the UK. At the same time, the UK public debt is equivalent to 93.8% of GDP, and the deficit is 4% of GDP. Productivity growth stalled during the financial crisis and never recovered, averaging about 0.6% a year now, compared to 2% in the USA.

The failure to use restored self-determination as an opportunity to open borders and deregulate was catastrophic.

ILLIBERALISM IS NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE eND OF hISTORY:

It may not feel like it, but hope is on the horizon: Trump, Netanyahu and Putin’s powers appear to be waning (Simon Tisdall, 5/17/26, The Guardian)

Intense negativity characterises European and, to a lesser degree, North American political sentiment. In France, 90% of people questioned by Ipsos believed their country is on the wrong track. In Britain, it was 79%; in Germany, 77%; in the US, 60%. Europeans feel similarly glum about the bigger, global picture, unlike the Chinese, Saudis and Nigerians who are broadly upbeat, according to a GlobeScan survey.

Pew Research Center polling in 25 countries last year found that the US, Russia and China are seen, by most but not all, as the biggest international threats.

ESCHEWING RESPONSIBILITY:

We Are Sliding Back Into the Middle Ages (Katya Ungerman, 5/17/26, NY Times)


Demonic vexation, teleportation, increased interest in religious practice — those phenomena are all signs that life feels, to many, increasingly charged with unseen forces. You might say it has been re-enchanted. There’s a widespread feeling that the material explanation is no longer sufficient; that something uncanny, maybe even numinous, is diffused into the texture of ordinary American life.

Any excuse is better than accepting that they are the authors of their own misery.

NO RACISM REQUIRED:

Why Neutral Maps Could Empower Black Voters as Much as the Voting Rights Act (Nate Cohn and Eve Washington, May 17, 2026, NY Times)

A race-neutral, nonpartisan redistricting process could create just as many House districts where the candidate preferred by nonwhite voters — usually a Democrat — would be favored to win.

One way to tell whether nonwhite voters would lose their power in that kind of redistricting process is by looking at computer simulations of hypothetical congressional districts. The algorithms, first designed by a team of political scientists in 2022, try to draw compact districts that respect county and municipal lines. After the Supreme Court weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, we reran the simulations without consideration of race. Using the algorithms to draw new districts thousands of times with those compactness constraints can give a good sense of what neutral maps could look like.

And the simulations yield roughly as many so-called minority-opportunity districts across the South as existed under the Voting Rights Act.

In other words, the act didn’t create minority representation that couldn’t have existed otherwise. Nonpartisan, race-neutral redistricting would still preserve many such districts, even if in a different configuration…

CONSPIRACIES HELP THEM EXPLAIN AWAY PERSONAL FAILURES:

12 Things Everyone Should Know About Conspiracy Theories: The strange psychology of suspicious minds (Steve Stewart-Williams, Nov 15, 2025, Nature-Nurture)

Some personalities are more fertile soil for conspiracy theories than others. Research on the Big Five personality traits, for instance, shows that low agreeableness and high neuroticism tilt the odds toward conspiratorial thinking. Other personality predictors include entitlement, low inquisitiveness, low humility, and a victimhood mentality.

    But the single strongest personality predictor is narcissism. Narcissists are particularly prone to conspiracy theories because they have a strong need for uniqueness, are prone to paranoia, and can also be remarkably gullible.

    OPEN THE BORDERS:

    Make Trade, Not War: How Capitalism Creates Peace: Open markets lead to closed battlefields. (Walker Wright, 5/15/26, Human Progress)

    While the liberal peace theory remains influential, a growing wave of empirical research over the last three decades suggests that markets may play a bigger role than the ballot box. This shift in consensus toward what’s known as the capitalist peace theory posits that trade openness and economic interdependence are among the primary forces that mitigate war. Of course, scholars continue to debate over how much trade and economic freedom contribute to peace. But liberal peace theorists now include economic interdependence as an essential element within the broader liberal peace project. Economic interdependence is “part of the glue that cements the ‘liberal peace’ together.”

    More Reagan/Bush, less Trump/Biden.

    ASSUMED IDENTITY:

    Black Candidates Do Not Need Black Voters to Win (Deroy Murdock, May 15, 2026, American Spectator)

    In her dissenting opinion, liberal Justice Elena Kagan argued: “If other States follow Louisiana’s lead, the minority citizens residing there will no longer have an equal opportunity to elect candidates of their choice.”

    Can Kagan read the minds of “minority citizens?” If not, how would she know whether the “candidates of their choice” are minorities, Democrats, or anything else?

    Also important: Where is it written that minority candidates must represent minority voters?

    Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District is 61.3 percent black and only 24.5 percent white, the Census Bureau reports. And yet, since 2006, this majority-black, greater-Memphis electorate has voted 10 times to send Steve Cohen to the U.S. House. Cohen is white.

    Conversely, the Left whines that black Democrats can win only if a majority of voters of color (typically black) elect them. They assume that black contenders cannot secure a plurality or even a majority of white votes. This racist argument suggests that black candidates lack the charm, ideas, or ideas to win white votes, and/or whites are too bigoted to back blacks.

    Thus, race-obsessed Democrats concentrate black candidates in constituencies that resemble South Africa’s Apartheid-era Bantustans. Predominantly minority congressional districts recall Bophuthatswana, KwaZulu, Transkei, and other black “homelands.” And yet, for decades, constituencies with neither black majorities nor shapes like Rorschach blots have elected black Democrats and Republicans.

    LIBERALISM VS IDENTITARIANISM:

    Heroes of 1776 Shows That Remembering the Past Is Key to Progress: Neil Gorsuch’s new book reminds us that to accelerate progress, we must first acknowledge the progress that has already occurred. (Nick Gillespie | 5.11.2026, reason)

    Neil Gorsuch: There’s no doubt that the Revolution, the Constitution, and our country have always had challenges living up to the Declaration. I think of the Declaration as sort of our mission statement, the Constitution our how-to manual. But look at the mission statement. The mission statement is all of us are equal, that we all have an inalienable rights, and that we have the right to self-rule. Those ideas are perfect ideas. They exclude no one.

    THE DRAGON HAS NO TEETH:

    China Is Squandering a Golden Opportunity: Why Beijing Has Failed to Exploit Trump’s Missteps (David Shambaugh and Steven F. Jackson, May 12, 2026, Foreign Affairs)

    Although China’s diplomatic footprint is broad, it is not necessarily impactful. Beijing is not driving the international diplomatic agenda, and it is not the most influential power in any region of the world. It never gets in the middle of the world’s most troublesome issues or conflicts, and it rarely brokers negotiations between contested parties (as is currently the case with the Iran conflict). Beijing tends to offer anodyne calls for peace and negotiation but rarely forges direct negotiations to truly resolve conflicts. This diplomatic disappearing act is symptomatic of China’s exaggerated sense of its own global power.

    Xiism is no more a viable alternative to liberalism than Trumpism is. Then again, Xi and Donald are pretty similar.