February 2026

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF JOY:

A Cloudspotters’ Guide to Climate Change: On a lost-in-time island off the coast of England, a group called the Cloud Appreciation Society gathers to look skyward and bask in the delights of nature. But halfway around the world, scientists have modeled a scenario in which Stratocumulus actually disappear under extreme climate conditions. What’s a cloud lover to do in the Age of the Anthropocene? (MARI SAITO on LUNDY ISLAND, ENGLAND, Photographs by PHIL NOBLE, July 25, 2019, Reuters)

Apath of trampled grass leads up the hill to St. Helen’s, the only church on Lundy Island. Near its doors, a stray lamb nibbles on tufts of tall weeds. From a Gothic tower topped with the English flag, the coastline of Devon is faintly visible to the east, while the expanse of the Atlantic Ocean stretches west, the seas uninterrupted all the way to North America.

Inside, a handful of visitors in windproof jackets lean forward on wooden benches to catch the Rev. Jane Skinner’s words.

“Majestic or wispy, solid yet ephemeral. Who could conceive of clouds?” Skinner asks, sturdy Teva sandals peeking out from underneath her white robes. “God has the whole spectrum in view, from the heavenly sphere to the atom, the clouds delivering dramatic forces of nature, shielding and obscuring light.”

As she speaks, workmen bustle about the nave setting up equipment for the days to come. It’s no easy task, hosting a group on an off-grid island powered by a generator that switches off at midnight, and where the internet signal goes down in overloaded circuits whenever someone uses electricity to make tea.

Cirrus and contrails compete in the sky above Lundy Island, with a lighthouse in view in the distance on this spit of land off England’s southwest coast.


“Clouds remind us to be joyful,” Skinner starts again. “To pause and glory in nature, which is beautiful and good.”

TEST LESS:

99% of adults over 40 have shoulder “abnormalities” on an MRI, study finds (Beth Mole, Feb 17, 2026, Ars Technica)

In a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine this week, 99 percent of adults over 40 were found to have at least one abnormality in a rotator cuff on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The rotator cuff is the group of muscles and tendons in a shoulder joint that keeps the upper arm bone securely in the shoulder socket—and is often blamed for pain and other symptoms. The trouble is, the vast majority of people in the study had no shoulder problems.

In other words, it’s normal.

GEORGE SHOULD HAVE GIVEN US OUR OWN PARLIAMENT:

The Shots Heard Round the World (.John Ferling, , Spring 2025, American Heritage)


The stirrings that led to the conflagration were set in motion in the 1760s, when Great Britain embarked on a striking departure in its colonial policies. It was a multifaceted divergence that stepped on many toes, including those of the most powerful residents in the 13 North American colonies. Britain tightened its regulation of imperial trade, hoping to eliminate smuggling by urban merchants who trafficked in outlawed foreign commodities and sought to avoid paying duties on legitimate commerce. Imperial authorities also mandated a temporary halt to western migration beyond the Appalachian Mountains, antagonizing land speculators — mostly wealthy and influential colonists — and land-hungry farmers.

With the Stamp Act, in 1765, Parliament for the first time sought to levy taxes on its American subjects. It subsequently turned to other forms of taxation. To many colonists it seemed, as it did in 1774 to the Virginia planter and businessman George Washington, that Great Britain was pursuing “a Systematic ascertion of an arbitrary power” in violation of “the Laws & Constitution of their Country, & to violate the most essential & valuable rights of mankind.”

The Colonists had grievances beyond taxes and regulations, including their status as second-rate citizens unable to rise in British ranks.


Many colonists harbored grievances other than those concerning regulations and taxes. Some people in some provinces were unhappy with having to pay tithes to the established Church of England. Ambitious colonists resented the fact-of-life limitations that faced them. Confronted with an unspoken but all-too-real second-class rank within the British Empire, aspiring colonists recognized that the door was closed to their sitting in Parliament, gaining ministerial and diplomatic posts, or rising to the loftiest ranks in the British army or the Royal Navy.

THE FALKLANDS IS A NATION:

Change is afoot in the Falkland Islands: Falkland Islanders are showing that their future is theirs alone to decide (Daniel Toft, 2/16/26, The Critic)

Elections are free and fair, candidates stand as individuals rather than party labels, the media scrutinises those in office, and the result is accepted without question. Independent observers are unnecessary, although utilised for the first time, because confidence in the system is so high.

That matters, as for decades, Falkland Islanders have made clear that the future is theirs alone to decide. From the 2013 referendum to successive general elections, the Islands have consistently demonstrated that self-determination is a lived, practical reality and not some abstract principle.

CHILDREN OF FAITH:

My Conversion to Skeptical Belief (Christopher Beha, 2/10/26, NY Times)

To many, this will sound like a bit of a paradox, since skepticism and belief are understood to be in serious tension, if not outright opposition. We are all skeptical at certain times about certain things, but when we refer to someone more generally as a “skeptic,” we tend to mean that this person bases beliefs about the world entirely on the rational examination of objective evidence. More pointedly, we almost always mean that this person does not believe in God. But this is not at all the term’s historical meaning.

The Greek philosopher Pyrrho of Elis is often counted as the first philosophical skeptic. His complete doubt about the possibility of any human knowledge extended so far that, according to an ancient, possibly apocryphal account, he refused even to accept the evidence of his senses while walking down the street, “taking no precaution, but facing all risks as they came, whether carts, precipices, dogs or what not.” (His less skeptical friends followed behind to keep him out of trouble.)

Pyrrho’s first great modern disciple, the French essayist Michel de Montaigne, would not even say that he knew nothing, which seemed to express too much certainty. He preferred to put the matter as a question: “What do I know?” Yet Montaigne’s essays contain countless expressions of Christian piety. Precisely because we can’t have knowledge about even the most basic points, he argued, we must inevitably take certain things on faith — at least, if we don’t have friends kind enough to spend their lives guiding us around dogs and carts.


It’s possible to understand the entire modern philosophical tradition as an effort to grapple with the extreme skepticism that Montaigne reintroduced to Western culture without falling, as Montaigne did, back on faith. Four hundred and fifty years later, that project has brought us to a strange point.

The strangeness resides in the fact that reason disproves the foundations of Reason and demonstrates that all is faith.

DEEP STATE RISING:

The Spirit of Liberty—Horace E. Read Memorial Lecture (Jameel Jaffer, February 14, 2026, Just Security)

Meanwhile, the costs to the institutions that settled—not to mention the costs to our democracy—have been profound, even if they’ve been difficult to measure. CBS was once the most respected news organization in America thanks, ironically, to its fearless coverage of McCarthyism; now it’s a punchline on the late-night talk shows. The law firms that capitulated to Trump have lost not only their credibility as advocates but also some of their clients, partners, and associates. The leaders of these institutions were absolutely right to conclude that litigation would be risky, costly, and insufficient. But we know now that litigation, for all of its drawbacks, was preferable to the alternative.

Third, some institutions settled with Trump because they were sympathetic to his administration’s agenda, or to parts of it. Some university leaders were sympathetic to the Trump administration’s criticisms of affirmative action and DEI, and they shared the view that elite universities had become hostile to conservative viewpoints and to white men. Some university trustees and alumni thought the arrests of foreign students who had participated in pro-Palestinian protests were not just justified but overdue. Some trustees, administrators, faculty, and advocacy groups saw in the Trump administration’s hostility to higher education an opportunity to institute changes that they themselves had been advocating for many years. I said earlier that universities had capitulated to the Trump administration but in some cases the dynamic was more collaboration than capitulation.

I think we’ve already seen that this strategy was short-sighted, too. The Trump administration has seized on concerns relating to antisemitism and DEI to justify a much broader and still-expanding attack on higher education. Judge Allison Burroughs, who presided over the case in which Harvard successfully challenged the cancellation of its grants, wrote that the Trump administration has used antisemitism as “a smokescreen” for its own unrelated policy agenda. That assessment seems exactly right to me. The Trump administration is similarly using “free speech” as a smokescreen for all kinds of censorship. For example, in the name of free speech it’s revoking the visas of researchers who study misinformation, investigating news organizations for exercising editorial judgment, and (as I mentioned already) demanding that universities abolish departments that belittle conservative ideas. Those who have tried to make common cause with the administration on issues relating to equality and free speech have been used.

Finally, some institutional leaders just thought it would be better if other institutions did the fighting. This is always the dynamic with bullies, of course. There’s always the hope that, if one keeps one’s head down, the bully will focus his attention on someone else. And there’s always the hope that someone else will do the difficult work of putting the bully in his place. Courage is a public good, and so it’s undersupplied.

In describing the atmosphere in the United States in the years immediately after the Second World War, Norman Mailer wrote that “a stench of fear ha[d] come out of every pore of American life”—that the nation was suffering from “a collective failure of nerve.” He lamented that “the only courage, with rare exceptions, that we have been witness to, has been the isolated courage of isolated people.”

The landscape in the United States now is similar, and for similar reasons. Most of the leaders of the United States’ elite universities, news organizations, law firms, and cultural institutions understand very well that Trump poses an extraordinary threat to the democratic freedoms and values that are essential to their own institutions’ thriving and indeed survival. But there is a collective failure of nerve. The leaders of the United States’ elite institutions haven’t been willing to use the tools that the constitution, the laws, and the courts afford them. They seem also to lack the political structures and human relationships that would allow them to organize a coordinated, collective response to the threat that Trump poses.

Judge Hand delivered his “Spirit of Liberty” speech on May 21, which at that time was known as “I Am an American Day.” It was a naturalization ceremony, a celebration of immigrants and of all they contribute to American life—the kind of celebration that Mohsin Mahdawi, the Columbia student, might have attended had he not been arrested when he arrived for his naturalization interview. The speech is about courage. Hand celebrates immigrants who had “courage to break from the past and brave the dangers and the loneliness of a strange land.” He wonders, “what was the object that nerved us, or those that went before us, to this choice”? And then when he asks them to pledge their faith in “the glorious destiny of our beloved country,” he tells them that the America of their aspirations will never come into being except as “the conscience and courage of Americans create it.” So leaving one’s home requires courage, but creating the nation of one’s aspirations, and defending it—those tasks require courage, too. He pays tribute to the “young men who are at this moment fighting and dying” for an America that has not yet come into being.

The spirit of liberty is still easy to find in the United States, but you have to look beyond the leadership of elite institutions. Among ordinary citizens, there’s no scarcity of civic courage. The No Kings Day rallies over the summer drew around 5 million Americans to demonstrations in 2000 cities and towns across the country. Thousands of Americans protested President Trump’s deployment of the national guard in Portland, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Washington. Government lawyers have resigned rather than participate in corrupt investigations and prosecutions. You’ve all seen the footage of Americans around the country trying to protect their immigrant neighbors from ICE, even as ICE raids have become increasingly violent and Vice President Vance has assured ICE agents, falsely, that they enjoy “absolute immunity” for actions taken in connection with their duties. The tens of thousands of American students who participated in peaceful demonstrations and encampments meant to assert the humanity of Palestinians—those students also exhibited an admirable civic fortitude, a willingness to pay a personal price for the defense of human rights.

One of the people who testified in the case I mentioned earlier—the case in which the AAUP and MESA are challenging the arrests of student protesters—is a guy called Bernard Nickel. He had come to the United States as a student from Germany three decades earlier, and then stayed on to teach philosophy, first at Tufts and then at Harvard. When the trial began, he’d just completed a three-year term as chair of Harvard’s philosophy department. Professor Nickel is a green card holder, not a U.S. citizen, but until very recently he felt that he and his family were secure in the United States, and he didn’t hesitate to speak out publicly on controversial political issues. He assumed that the First Amendment protected him. The arrests of foreign students in the spring of 2024 made him suddenly aware of his own vulnerability. Watching the video of masked ICE agents arresting Rumeysa Ozturk, the Tufts student, was a particular shock. He testified at trial that he decided, after he saw that video, that he would “keep my head down completely. I would not go to protests. I would not write, I would not sign on to public letters, and any other potential forms of publicity I would just avoid.”

On cross-examination, a government lawyer asked Professor Nickel why, if he was really so afraid of government retaliation, he’d agreed to testify in a case which ICE was a defendant. If he’d resolved not to sign on to public letters and engage in public advocacy, why was he here in court testifying against the government? This is what he said in response:

You know, anybody can sign on to an open letter. Anybody can go to a protest. My sense was that, in this trial, somebody in my specific situation, somebody who is a senior scholar with a secure position at Harvard . . . , I don’t know that there are that many people who could have done this. So I thought this is something that’s worth it. . . . This is . . . where I live, and I want this to be a country and a nation of laws, not of men. . . . I believe in these kinds of processes and procedures. . . . [T]his is me doing my part.

Other faculty, from universities around the country, offered similar testimony. They were fearful that their participation in the lawsuit would provoke government retaliation, but they participated nonetheless out of a sense of obligation—to their American families and friends, their students, and to the democracy they had made their own. They did their part.

If the United States is going to return from the brink of this abyss, it will be because ordinary people—citizens and non-citizens alike—still care deeply about their democracy even if so many elites have shown themselves unprepared to defend it.

CLEAVERS:

The Hawthornes In Paradise: Nathaniel was poor and sunk in his solitude; Sophia seemed a hopeless invalid, but a late-flower love gave them at last “a perfect Eden.” (Malcolm Cowley, December 1958, American Heritage)

Sophia Amelia Peabody, five years younger than Hawthorne, never suffered from self-absorption or an icy heart, but she had a serious trouble of lier own. A pretty rather than a beautiful woman, with innocent gray eyes set wide apart, a tiptilted nose, and a mischievous smile, she had beaux attending her whenever she appeared in society; the trouble was that she could seldom appear. When Sophia was fifteen, she had begun to suffer from violent headaches. Her possessive mother explained to her that suffering was woman’s peculiar lot, having something to do with the sin of Eve. Her ineffectual father had her treated by half the doctors in Boston, who prescribed, among other remedies, laudanum, mercury, arsenic, hyoscyamus, homeopathy, and hypnotism, but still the headaches continued. Once as a desperate expedient she was sent to Cuba, where she spent two happy years on a plantation while her quiet sister Mary tutored the planter’s children. Now, back in Salem with the family—where her headaches were always worse—she was spending half of each day in bed. Like all the Peabody women, she had a New England conscience and a firm belief in the True, the Beautiful, and the Transcendental. She also had a limited but genuine talent for painting. When she was strong enough, she worked hard at copying pictures—and the copies sold- or at painting romantic landscapes of her own.


Sophia had been cast by her family in a role from which it seemed unlikely that she would ever escape. Just as Elizabeth Peabody was the intellectual sister, already famous as an educational reformer, and Mary was the quiet sister who did most of the household chores, Sophia was the invalid sister, petted like a child and kept in an upstairs room. There were also three brothers, one of them married, but the Peabodys were a matriarchy and a sorority; nobody paid much attention to the Peabody men. It was written that when the mother died, Sophia would become the invalid aunt of her brother’s children; she would support herself by painting lampshades and firescreens, while enduring her headaches with a brave smile. As for Hawthorne, his fate was written too; he would become the cranky New England bachelor, living in solitude and writing more and more nebulous stories about other lonely souls. But they saved each other, those two unhappy children. Each was the other’s refuge, and they groped their way into each other’s arms, where both found strength to face the world.

FATHER:

The Man Who Would Not Be King (David Boaz, 2/20/26, Cato)

What values did Washington’s character express? He was a farmer, a businessman, an enthusiast for commerce. As a man of the Enlightenment, he was deeply interested in scientific farming. His letters on running Mount Vernon are longer than letters on running the government. (Of course, in 1795 more people worked at Mount Vernon than in the entire executive branch of the federal government.)

He was also a liberal and tolerant man. In a famous letter to the Jewish congregation in Newport, Rhode Island, he hailed the “liberal policy” of the United States on religious freedom as worthy of emulation by other countries. He explained, “It is now no more that toleration is spoken of as if it were the indulgence of one class of people that another enjoyed the exercise of their inherent natural rights, for, happily, the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection should demean themselves as good citizens.”

And most notably, he held “republican” values – that is, he believed in a republic of free citizens, with a government based on consent and established to protect the rights of life, liberty, and property.

From his republican values Washington derived his abhorrence of kingship, even for himself. The writer Garry Wills called him “a virtuoso of resignations.” He gave up power not once but twice – at the end of the revolutionary war, when he resigned his military commission and returned to Mount Vernon, and again at the end of his second term as president, when he refused entreaties to seek a third term. In doing so, he set a standard for American presidents that lasted until the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose taste for power was stronger than the 150 years of precedent set by Washington.

LEVELING UP OPEN INTELLIGENCE:

Building the truth machine (Andy Hall and Elliot, Feb 13, 2026, Free Systems)

The central problem is that the political and policy markets—those arguably most core to the social value proposition of prediction markets—are mostly ghost towns today. […]


For the vast majority of political contracts, there’s almost no one on the other side of the trade. One way to see this: the gap between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are asking—a standard measure of how active a market is—typically exceeds 20% of the midpoint price, and is often much higher than that. That’s enormous. In a healthy, liquid market, that gap is no more than a few percentage points at most.

Interestingly, it’s not the case that less liquid markets are necessarily less accurate at predicting outcomes. Sometimes markets stay illiquid precisely because they’re already accurate, and there’s no incentive for new money to enter. Even quite small prediction markets have historically shown strong predictive performance—Wolfers and Zitzewitz documented accurate forecasts from markets with as few as 20 to 60 participants. More recently, Clinton and Huang’s analysis of over 2,500 political contracts from the 2024 election found that PredictIt—the most restricted platform, with position limits of just $850 per contract—correctly predicted 93% of outcomes, compared with 78% for Kalshi and 67% for Polymarket. Markets with more trading activity were not more accurate, controlling for the types of events being traded.

But thin markets are certainly cheaper to manipulate, as I have argued recently. When liquidity is low, a single motivated actor can move prices without anyone around to push back—and in a world where CNN and CNBC are now broadcasting these prices to millions of viewers, that vulnerability matters more than ever.