Technology

ALWAYS BET AGAINST INFLATION:

Meet America’s Newest Oil Trader Extraordinaire: Joe Biden (David Uberti, Dec. 31, 2023, WSJ

President Biden’s unprecedented release of oil from America’s petroleum reserves in 2022 turned the White House into an unusually active player in the volatile crude market. The flood of emergency supplies helped arrest surging oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, and pulled billions of dollars into the Energy Department’s coffers in the process.

Oil prices have sputtered since and allowed officials who sold high to start replenishing U.S. stockpiles on the cheap.

EASY SQUEEZY:

40% of US electricity is now emissions-free (JOHN TIMMER – 12/28/2023, Ars Technica)

If we combine nuclear and renewables under the umbrella of carbon-free generation, then that’s up by nearly 1 percent since 2022 and is likely to surpass 40 percent for the first time.

The only thing that’s keeping carbon-free power from growing faster is natural gas, which is the fastest-growing source of generation at the moment, going from 40 percent of the year-to-date total in 2022 to 43.3 percent this year. (It’s actually slightly below that level in the October data.) The explosive growth of natural gas in the US has been a big environmental win, since it creates the least particulate pollution of all the fossil fuels, as well as the lowest carbon emissions per unit of electricity. But its use is going to need to start dropping soon if the US is to meet its climate goals, so it will be critical to see whether its growth flat lines over the next few years.

Outside of natural gas, however, all the trends in US generation are good, especially considering that the rise of renewable production would have seemed like an impossibility a decade ago.

THAT WAS EASY:

Uruguay’s green power revolution: rapid shift to wind shows the world how it’s done: Stung by 2008’s oil price spike, Uruguay now produces up to 98% of its electricity from renewables. Can other countries follow suit? (Sam Meadows, 27 Dec 2023, The Guardian)

It was the 2000s, and fossil fuel prices were rising worldwide. After a period of volatility in the 1980s, the crude oil price per barrel had reached one of its lowest points – $20 – at the end of 2001 but then, over the course of six years, it tripled before a new oil shock saw prices surpass those of the 1970s, reaching a record $145 a barrel on 3 July 2008.

Uruguay imports its oil, so it had a problem. Demand for energy in the country had grown by 8.4% the previous year and household energy bills were increasing at a similar rate. The 3.4 million-strong population was becoming restless. Lacking alternatives, President Tabaré Vázquez was forced to buy energy from neighbouring states at higher prices, even though Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay had a mutual aid agreement in case of emergency conditions.

To escape the trap, Vázquez needed rapid solutions. He turned to an unlikely source: Ramón Méndez Galain, a physicist who would transform the country’s energy grid into one of the cleanest in the world.

Today, the country has almost phased out fossil fuels in electricity production. Depending on the weather, anything between 90% and 95% of its power comes from renewables. In some years, that number has crept as high as 98%.

Tax the externalities of oil and we’re transitioned by 2030.

ELECTRIC DEFLATION:

Six reasons to be optimistic about the energy transition: Yes, the world is hooked on fossil fuels, but Canary Media’s experts are still hopeful about the rise of clean energy. Here’s why. (Staff, 28 December 2023, Canary Media)

The economics are on the side of climate solutions

The core technologies for the first phase of the energy transition — solar, wind, batteries and heat pumps — are getting so affordable that demand for them will soon outweigh the institutional inertia that stands in their way.

Solar and wind power are now by far the cheapest source of new electricity generation, both globally and in the U.S., and those trends are set to continue. Lithium-ion battery prices have fallen to record lows again after a brief Covid-induced uptick, meaning it’s more affordable than ever to store wind and solar power for hours at a time. That same trend is also driving down the cost of electric vehicles, which can already outcompete gas cars on a lifetime basis in most parts of the country. And heat pumps, which are less expensive than ever thanks to federal tax credits, continue to demonstrate that they’re far more efficient at heating (and cooling) than conventional methods — even in the cold.

Together, these technologies alone are enough to get us far along the decarbonization pathways for electricity generation, transportation and buildings. The victories — for the climate, for consumers and for the companies that can capitalize on these technological realities — are there for the taking. — Jeff St. John

The Right hating Greens won’t stop economics.

DRIVING SUCKS…:

We Own More Cars Than Ever. So Why Are We Driving Less? (David Harrison, Dec. 25, 2023, WSJ)

All those vehicles had to stay in the garage during the pandemic. Now, with the pandemic largely behind us, many of those vehicles are still there.

As of 2022, the number of trips Americans took had fallen by more than a third compared with 2017, according to surveys conducted by the Transportation Department. (A trip here is defined as going from one place to another. In other words, driving to the grocery store and back counts as two trips.)

The rise of remote work accounts for some, but not all, of this decline. Shopping, restaurant dining and recreational trips, regardless of travel mode, are all down from 2017. The pandemic has turned us into homebodies.

…homes are good.