Energy

ECONOMICS TRUMPS IDEOLOGY:

How we know the energy transition is here (Amy Harder, 4/15/24, Cipher)

[S]everal recent data points suggest the energy transition is happening, often faster than even some experts have predicted.

Take this wild stat about arguably the most recognizable climate technology: electric cars.

“In 2020, around one in 25 cars sold worldwide were electric; just a few years later, in 2023, it was one in five,” wrote Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, in a March Financial Times article.

IT REALLY IS ALL FLUFFY PINK BUNNIES…:

Batteries the biggest player again as renewable records smashed in California, reach 156 pct of load (Giles Parkinson, Apr 22, 2024, Renew Economy)

The astonishing pace of the green energy transition in California appears to be hitting hyper-drive this spring, as big batteries once again emerge as the dominant player in the state’s evening power peaks, and as renewables smash all previous records.

Last week Renew Economy reported on the milestone when battery storage became, for the first time, the largest supply source in the evening peak of what is one of the world’s largest grids. On Tuesday, it discharged more than 6 GW for the first time, providing up to a 25 per cent share of supply, and was the biggest provider on the grid for two hours.

…AND CHEAPER…:

NYC is testing window-mounted devices that could cut heating costs by over 50%: ‘This is the way to do that’ (Stephen ProctorApril 7, 2024, Renew Economy)

These heat pumps are special because they are essentially the same size as a window-mounted air conditioning unit.

These heat pumps will similarly be installed on windowsills, from which they’ll heat apartments in the winter and cool them in the summer. Heat pumps have become increasingly popular across the country, but until now they were only for homeowners with space for the larger prototypical design.

Gradient, one of the companies awarded funding for this experiment, says that on the coldest days, the window heat pumps can reduce heating costs by 15-55% compared to gas-powered steam heat and 51-74% compared to oil-powered steam heat.

Notably, many New York City residents rely on such heat, which the NYCHA calls “19th-century technology incompatible with 21st-century needs.”

HATING GREENS WON’T STOP THE TRANSITION:

“Very predictable:” Study shows global wind energy production is stable (Sophie Vorrath, Apr 5, 2024, Renew Economy)

Wind energy generation may be variable, as anti-renewables folk love to point out, but a new study has found that wind power production from operating projects is actually “very predictable,” with annual variations falling within a range of plus or minus 3 per cent, worldwide.

PITY THE POOR PETROPHILES:

Scientists make ‘major finding’ with nanodevices that can seemingly produce energy out of thin air: ‘Contradicting prior understanding’ (Jeremiah Budin, April 2, 2024, The Cool Down)

Giulia Tagliabue, the head of the laboratory, and Tarique Anwar, a PhD student, focused their research on hydrovoltaic effects, which can harness the power of evaporation to provide a continuous flow of energy in order to harvest electricity using specialized nanodevices.

In less technical terms: It’s a way to create clean energy using the power of evaporation. And scientists are taking interest in it due to its planet-friendliness.

EARTH FIRST:

Geothermal is the hottest thing in clean energy. Here’s why (Maria Gallucci, 25 March 2024, Canary Media)

Solar, wind power and battery-storage projects are already cleaning up the U.S. electrical grid. But energy analysts warn that these technologies might not be enough on their own to fully buck America’s reliance on fossil-fuel-burning power plants, which are the second-largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions after transportation. The grid also needs carbon-free electricity available on demand to guarantee it can provide the sort of 24/7 power needed by cities, data centers and industrial facilities like aluminum smelters or steel mills.

At the moment, however, these so-called ​“clean, firm” sources remain elusive. Recent advances in geothermal technologies, demonstrated by a handful of real-world projects, suggest that harnessing the earth’s heat could be among the most promising ways to solve this clean-energy conundrum. But that can only happen if it can overcome the sizable challenges that stand in its way.

“If we can crack the nut on this new-generation geothermal, it means we can put geothermal just about anywhere,” Cindy Taff, CEO of the Houston-based startup Sage Geosystems, said during a March 9 panel at SXSW in Austin, Texas.

TAX EXTERNALITIES:

New report outlines surprising side effects of switching to electric vehicles (Leo CollisMarch 23, 2024, The Cool Down)

A study from the [American Lung Association] examined what the world would look like if all new vehicles sold by 2035 were powered by electricity rather than dirty fuel, and the results were promising.

This notable shift could lead to almost 2.8 million fewer asthma attacks among children and reduce upper and lower respiratory symptoms in kids by 2.67 million and 1.87 million, respectively.

That’s alongside 147,000 fewer acute cases of bronchitis and a reduction in the infant mortality rate by 508 cases.

SAVING CITIES:

People Hate the Idea of Car-Free Cities—Until They Live in One (ANDREW KERSLEY, MAR 19, 2024, Wired)

London’s car-reduction policies come in a variety of forms. There are charges for dirtier vehicles and for driving into the city center. Road layouts in residential areas have been redesigned, with one-way systems and bollards, barriers, and planters used to reduce through-traffic (creating what are known as “low-traffic neighborhoods”—or LTNs). And schemes to get more people cycling and using public transport have been introduced. The city has avoided the kind of outright car bans seen elsewhere in Europe, such as in Copenhagen, but nevertheless things have changed.

“The level of traffic reduction is transformative, and it’s throughout the whole day,” says Claire Holland, leader of the council in Lambeth, a borough in south London. Lambeth now sees 25,000 fewer daily car journeys than before its LTN scheme was put in place in 2020, even after adjusting for the impact of the pandemic. Meanwhile, there was a 40 percent increase in cycling and similar rises in walking and scooting over that same period.

What seems to work best is a carrot-and-stick approach—creating positive reasons to take a bus or to cycle rather than just making driving harder. “In crowded urban areas, you can’t just make buses better if those buses are still always stuck in car traffic,” says Rachel Aldred, professor of transport at the University of Westminster and director of its Active Travel Academy. “The academic evidence suggests that a mixture of positive and negative characteristics is more effective than either on their own.”

For countries looking to cut emissions, cars are an obvious target. They make up a big proportion of a country’s carbon footprint, accounting for one-fifth of all emissions across the European Union. Of course, urban driving doesn’t make up the majority of a country’s car use, but the kind of short journeys taken when driving in the city are some of the most obviously wasteful, making cities an ideal place to start if you’re looking to get people out from behind the wheel. That, and the fact that many city residents are already car-less (just 40 percent of people in Lambeth own cars, for example) and that cities tend to have better public transport alternatives than elsewhere.

Plus, traffic-reduction programmes also have impacts beyond reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. In cities like Oslo and Helsinki, thanks to car-reduction policies, entire years have passed without a single road traffic death. It’s even been suggested that needing less parking could free up space to help ease the chronic housing shortage felt in so many cities.

IT’LL NEVER FLY, ORVILLE:

Chart of the Day: California surges beyond 100 pct renewables (Giles Parkinson, Mar 18, 2024, Renew Economy)

[C]alifornia, the world’s biggest sub-national economy, and the fifth biggest in the world if it were a country, is also setting new benchmarks for renewables, with its wind, solar and hydro resources more than matching demand over the past week.

According to Mark Jacobsen, the Stanford University academic who has outlined plans for wind, water and solar to provide the bulk, if not all, electricity needs in countries across the globe, California’s wind, water and solar resources have bested 100 per cent of local demand for varying periods in nine of the last 10 days.

On Sunday, California time, the peak was 115 per cent of demand and wind, water and solar beat demand for five solid hours.

Jacobsen says that wind, water and solar have accounted for more than 100 per cent of state demand for between one and six hours for nine out of the last 10 days. And that is one in the eye for all the naysayers.

“In 2009, when we first proposed 100% WWS, the utilities and naysayers claimed the grid would go unstable with more than 20 per cent renewable energy, with no evidence,” Jacobsen wrote on X.

“In 2017, they claimed, with no evidence, a limit of 80 per cent. In 2020, they claimed 90%, then 95% . Now 100% WWS is here to stay.”

HOW COULD DECLINING ENERGY COSTS POSSIBLY AID GROWTH…:

Can We Slash Carbon Emissions and Still Have Economic Growth? (AKIELLY HU & JOSEPH WINTERS, 3/10/24, Grist)

But the kind of decoupling needed to achieve international climate targets is called “absolute” decoupling, when economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions veer in opposite directions: GDP up, emissions down. More recent research has documented this in a number of high-income countries. The U.S., for example, saw a 32 percent increase in GDP between 2005 and 2021, while its overall CO2 emissions fell by about 17 percent.

Something similar appears to have happened in other developed economies like France, Sweden, and Germany—even when you account for so-called “consumption-based” emissions, which include emissions from the production of goods that are imported or exported. In other words, these countries seem to really be reducing climate pollution and not just offshoring it to the developing world.

Since 2016, reports from the World Resources Institute, the Breakthrough Institute, and independent researchers have shown more and more countries achieving periods of absolute decoupling, including their consumption-based emissions. Perhaps the splashiest analysis came in 2022, when a Financial Times data columnist reported that 70 countries—one in three worldwide—had experienced at least five consecutive years of absolute decoupling between 1990 and 2020. “Green growth is already here,” the columnist wrote.