Long War

UNFAIR TO VILLAGES:

Putin’s ‘Cringe’ Weekend of Humiliation: His effort to put on a show of strength didn’t fool anyone. (Cathy Young, Jun 09, 2026, The Bulwark)

RUSSIAN PUNDITS AND JOURNALISTS ABROAD HAD CHOICE WORDS to describe the just-concluded St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: “A freak show.” “A fake.” “A Potemkin village.” For that matter, even the quasi-dissident Russian businessman Dmitry Potapenko, who still lives in Russia and was in attendance at the event, remarked in a YouTube interview that there was “more cringe” (yes, “krindzh” is now a Russian word) than usual—perhaps the perfect way to describe this year’s installment a once-prestigious event dating back to 1997.

For striking examples of krindzh, look no further than the American guest list, where the big names were conspiracy-theory blogger Candace Owens (who is known for many things, but the one Russian commentators found especially juicy was her crusade to prove that French First Lady Brigitte Macron is a man) and “influencer” Andrew Tate, who is also known for many things, especially multiple charges of human trafficking and sexual assault, including against minors. Even many Kremlin loyalists were annoyed by Tate’s presence—among them Ekaterina Mizulina, a prominent crusader for “traditional values” and for a “safe Internet” (i.e., censorship), who grumbled that Russia has enough of its own “dubious bloggers” and doesn’t need to import them. For some reason, no one pointed out that the forum’s American lineup included a convicted child molester, former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who spoke on a panel and shared his wisdom that “today Europe is a rabid dog.”

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

Erdogan and Putin, the End of an Unlikely Partnership (Gonul Tol, 6/07/26, NY Times)

Ukraine has already been capitalizing on the Iran war by cultivating closer military ties with Gulf states. When Iran attacked neighboring countries with Shahed-136 kamikazes, the same drones that Russia has used in Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky quickly sought to leverage Ukraine’s experience, dispatching air defense teams to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.


Turkey, which has strong military ties with the Gulf, sees Ukraine’s growing role as a complement to Ankara’s relationships that will allow it to expand what it’s offering. For Russia, which has spent years developing closer economic and security ties with Gulf monarchies, the shift is yet another setback. [….]

It’s clear that Ankara is no longer balancing between Moscow and NATO and is tilting the field against Mr. Putin. Russia’s decline has given Turkey, after a decade of deference to Moscow, the freedom to pursue its interests. Ukraine is the beneficiary.

IDENTITY POLITICS AT ITS UGLIEST:

The Democrats’ Big Decision: Black Representation or More Blue Seats? (Clyde McGrady, June 4, 2026, NY Times)

But the next act in the drama over Black representation will be driven in part by Democratic leaders, some of them Black, who face a difficult decision. Do they preserve the majority-Black, overwhelmingly Democratic districts in blue states like New York, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey? Or do they maximize Democratic representation in the House by diluting urban districts dominated by Black voters and expanding their boundaries into the suburbs. Doing the latter would allow them to target Republican House members in those states.

Those new districts would remain Democratic, though less so, but they may no longer be majority-Black. So Black voters could lose power in two ways — by losing the number of districts they dominate and by losing the number of Black voices in Congress.

Did President Obama only speak for Black Americans?

THE WAGES OF iDENTITARIANISM:

REVIEW: of Allen Buchanan, Political Tribalism: How It Hijacks Our Minds and Diminishes Our Humanity (Alexander Motchoulski, 2026.06.2, Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews)

Morally, tribalistic ideologies impede individuals’ moral reasoning primarily by representing politics as a zero-sum struggle of life and death on which one’s existence and identity depend (52-53). By representing politics as a condition of high-stakes group conflict, such ideologies are supposed to motivate transgression of what would otherwise be seen as moral norms in one’s behavior toward those that one views as Other.

Cognitively, tribalistic ideologies undermine our ability to reason about and with persons perceived as Other because such ideologies represent the other in terms of rigid stereotypes which obscure differences among persons falling within that category (36-37), impede one’s ability to take the perspective of persons deemed Other (45-47), and impede uptake of testimony from persons regarded as Other (80-81). Tribalistic ideologies’ effects on our moral reasoning compound with those cognitive effects, transforming what should be truth-seeking discourse into interactions aimed at defensive scorekeeping against opposition criticism (rather than fair consideration of and response to such criticism) and exercises in signaling one’s group affiliation and sorting one’s interactions to take place with one’s group (62-5).

Tribalism, then, is that way of thinking and feeling, of seeing and desiring and reacting, that is the driving force behind the antagonism observed in contemporary politics.

CONTESTING VICTIMHOOD:

Anti-Woke, or Just Wounded? A Typology of Two Types of Anti-Woke Intellectuals (Scott Barry Kaufman, June 1, 2026, Skeptic)

When we hear “narcissism,” we picture the grandiose type: the swaggering, self-promoting, attention-hungry performer. But in a study with Joshua Miller, W. Keith Campbell, and Brandon Weiss, my colleagues and I mapped how narcissism actually breaks apart into different faces. There’s grandiose narcissism: antagonistic, dominant, status-seeking. And there’s vulnerable narcissism: neurotic, hypersensitive, easily wounded, perpetually aggrieved, convinced the world has failed to grant the recognition it owes. The antagonism is the thread the two share.

Both feed the second anti-woke intellectual, but in different ways. Grandiose narcissism builds the brand: the crusader who discovers that being The Person Who Fights This Thing brings a following, a revenue stream, a standing ovation, and who needs the enemy to stay enormous because the enemy is now load-bearing for the self. Vulnerable narcissismsupplies the wound: the person who was genuinely humiliated—fired, mobbed, exiled, betrayed—and for whom the critique is no longer about the world at all but about settling a score that never closes. A real injury becomes a permanent organizing principle. The crusade is the bandage that never comes off because the cut is never allowed to heal.

And when this goes collective, it gets its own engine. The work of Agnieszka Golec de Zavala on collective narcissism describes groups built around the belief that we are exceptional, that we are not sufficiently recognized, and shows that such groups reliably turn hostile toward whoever they cast as the threat to the in-group’s image. An anti-woke movement organized around shared grievance, rather than shared inquiry, will behave exactly this way: ever-vigilant, ever-aggrieved, retaliating against perceived insults to its own greatness. The truth-seeking recedes; the score-settling takes over.

That’s the distinction I’d draw, and I’d put it as a question anyone in this fight can ask themselves: Am I doing this to make society better, or to repair a narcissistic injury? The two can look identical from the outside. They have very different effects on the world.


And here is the part I find mega-ironic: the second camp talks, almost without exception, from a place of pure victim mindset. The very thing they are most likely to mock in their opponents (the grievance gang, the victimhood culture, the perpetual woundedness group, the “everyone is out to get us” cohort) is the thing they have most thoroughly become. Their accusation becomes a mirror of themselves.

This is the root of the Right’s obsession with manliness: they lack iot.

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

Thanks largely to robots, Ukraine is now talking about winning, not just surviving: Uncrewed and autonomous systems—and the willingness to adapt to them—have neutered Russian advantages. (Patrick Tucker | June 2, 2026, Defense One)

A small but growing number of European officials and analysts are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn’t just surviving its grueling war with Russia, it is in some ways thriving and may even be on a path to victory.

This isn’t yet captured in headlines—for example, about last weekend’s barrage of Russian drones and missiles around Ukraine—but in the details, like how some 90 percent were intercepted.

Several long-term trends have shifted in Ukraine’s favor, and the core reason is its fierce focus on AI and robotics.

In the crucible of war, Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory—even take it back.

DONALD WHO?:

Taiwan’s more relaxed than most of us about Trumpian deal-making (Bill Emmott, May 31, 2026, Asia Times)

So it is worth asking why Taiwan itself seems comparatively relaxed about the potential implications of the Trump-Xi summits. This may help us separate the noise that inevitably surrounds these summits from the true strategic signals that both sides are conveying.

One reason why Taiwan is less concerned than others is a simple one: it has had to learn to live with its geopolitically anomalous status for nearly 80 years now. If it got nervous every time the Chinese and American leaders talked, even ones like Xi and Trump, it would soon have a nervous breakdown.


Moreover, while certainly the People’s Republic of China has become vastly stronger in economic, military and political terms, especially over the past two decades, so has Taiwan. The Taiwanese know that they could not defeat China in a head-on conflict but they also know that they are strong enough to impose huge costs and pose high risks for China.

Ukraine’s success in resisting Russia’s invasion since February 2022 serves as an inspiration for Taiwan but most of all as a warning to China.

What matters to Taiwan is that it can keep on strengthening its defenses sufficiently to help deter an invasion.

Taiwan actually could win a head on conflict.

CHOKING ON THEIR BILE:

How Right-Wing Politics Make You Physically Ill (Kristen French, May 29, 2026, Nautilus)

A team of scientists found that conservative Americans got measurably less healthy than liberal Americans over the course of the 2010s. By the early 2020s they were dying at significantly higher rates, even setting aside COVID-19 deaths. They also ran a separate large survey, in 2024, of more than 21,000 people and found that right-leaning Americans—especially Republicans and Trump voters—are less likely to trust their doctors, follow medical advice, and seek care when they probably should.

It isn’t just about COVID vaccines. It extends to medications for chronic conditions like diabetes and hypertension, and to willingness to go to the doctor for chest pain.

THE DRAGON HAS NO TEETH:

Ten China falsehoods exposed by the Trump-Xi summit (Miles Yu, May 25, 2026, Washington Times)

  1. The myth of the “Thucydides Trap”

The Beijing summit revived the tired mythology of the “Thucydides Trap,” the claim that conflict between the United States and China is inevitable because a rising China is displacing a declining America. This theory is not only intellectually bankrupt, but also historically erroneous, because the rising power was defeated in the Peloponnesian war that Thucydides masterfully documented.

Xi Jinping himself is trapped not by geopolitical reality, but by Marxist-Leninist dogma, which insists capitalism is collapsing and communist victory triumphantly inexorable. The CCP mistakes dogma and propaganda for reality. America remains the world’s leading military, technological and financial power, the global hub of innovation and inspiration, the only superpower capable of shaping global security, trade and alliance environments.

China, meanwhile, faces demographic collapse, economic stagnation, mass unemployment, popular disenchantment and elite political instability. More importantly, the real divide is not “China versus America,” but communist China versus the entire free world.

THE rIGHT IS THE lEFT:

Dear conservatives, industrial policy is a dead end (Samuel Gregg, 26 May 2026, CapX)

Industrial policy is in fact already widespread in Western societies. State subsidies, special tax write-offs, outright capital grants and joint public-private enterprises are rife in developed economies. The differences are really about scale and form.

One reason why many governments have often been reluctant to acknowledge the degree to which they promote such practices are the well-documented economic and political problems associated with industrial policy.

Among other things, these include: 1) the fact that governments cannot know everything they would need to know if they were to design successful industrial policies; 2) the massive opportunity costs associated with diverting scarce resources to less productive economic sectors; 3) industrial policy’s inherently political nature and its consequent susceptibility to political machinations and rampant cronyism.

Then there is the reality that the world’s economies are littered with powerful examples of industrial policy failure. Japan was once considered the poster child for industrial policy success. In the 1980s, many American commentators insisted that unless the US imitated Japan’s extensive use of industrial policy, it risked being supplanted by Japan as the world’s economic superpower.

The irony is that from the early-1990s onwards, Japan started slipping into its ‘Lost Decades’ of stagnation, and there is little doubt that industrial policy played a leading part in facilitating that decline. Indeed, one of the most comprehensive studies of industrial policy’s long-term impact upon Japan concluded that it produced ‘little, if any positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare’.

This track record should cause conservatives to be more wary of industrial policy, including the current Chinese variety.