Jens Ludwig on American Gun Violence (Social Science Bites, April 1, 2025)
Jens Ludwig: Yeah, let me start off by acknowledging the first part of the question, which the data suggests, is very true, that the 400 million guns that the United States has for a country of 330 million people is without question part of the story. You know, we have state level data on a proxy for household gun ownership. And we can see that over a decades-long period, the household gun ownership rate between the northern part of the United States the southern part of the United States have been converging over time, and we can see over that same time period that murder rates have been converging across these regions as well. So it’s a nice sort of natural experiment that points to something that’s suggestive of a causal relationship between overall gun availability and murders. And so, if you had a wand that one could wave, that would get rid of the 400 million guns in the United States, I think it is very much true that the United States would become much, much safer. But as you say, that’s not the whole story.
David Edmonds: America is not the only country awash with guns. My elder brother lives in Switzerland, where almost everybody has a gun, but they don’t have the murder rate that you have. So it seems like guns alone can’t be the answer.
Jens Ludwig: Yeah, gun violence is really the product of two things, not just one thing. My little cartoon equation for this in the book is gun violence equals guns plus violence. What you can see in the data is that, for instance, that Switzerland and Canada have almost identical levels of gun ownership, and yet, the murder rate in Canada is multiple times what you see in Switzerland. And I think the explanation there is that the rate of violent crime is substantially different between Switzerland and Canada. And so I think what the data seemed to suggest is that guns don’t cause violent behavior, cause violent crime. Guns make the violence that happens much more deadly. So you can have lots of guns and not many murders, lots of violent crime without guns and not many murders, but if you have lots of guns and lots of violence together, that’s the thing that leads to lots of murders.