THERE IS NO AFGHANISTAN:
What’s behind the escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?: A Good Chat with Asfandyar Mir on the latest strikes – and what to watch. (Christopher Clary and Asfandyar Mir – October 13, 2025, Good Authority)
Why did the strikes happen now? I mean that both in the sense of what triggered these strikes in the immediate sense, but also whether there is a deeper context that helps explain the strikes.
The immediate trigger for these strikes appears to be a series of attacks in western Pakistan in September and October, which resulted in over 100 Pakistani security forces fatalities. Pakistani security forces losses in 2025 from anti-Pakistan militants are on track to be the highest ever – and there is a genuine case that this is a result of militants being able to organize in and operate from Taliban-provided sanctuaries.More generally, despite a long history of Pakistan backing the Taliban both in its formation and later in its insurgency against the United States, Pakistan has developed deep animosity toward the Taliban since their return to power in August 2021 – largely because of their state support for anti-Pakistan groups in Afghanistan, particularly the TTP. When Pakistan asks the Taliban to rein in the TTP, the Taliban either urge Pakistan to negotiate and make concessions to the TTP, or claim they cannot control the TTP. Sometimes the Taliban does both. Over time, the Pakistani leadership has come to believe the Taliban are deliberately weaponizing the TTP and other anti-Pakistan militants, either to expand a Taliban-like regime into Pakistan or to enable an allied Pashtun entity to take over northwest Pakistan. In an added twist, India has also pursued a normalization of ties with the Taliban, just as Pakistan-Taliban ties have nosedived. This contributes to the Pakistani inference that the Taliban are pursuing a hostile agenda against Pakistan, in coordination with their archenemy India.