MATERIALISM IS A HOAX:

The brain’s code seems to be in constant flux. Neuroscientists are baffled (Diana Kwon, 5/20/26, Nature)

It is a dogma in neuroscience that certain brain cells respond in the same way to the same thing. Specific neurons always fire, for example, when we see particular shapes and colours; other neurons activate to swing an arm or wiggle a nose. The brain needs this stability, the theory goes, to respond to the outside world in a consistent way.

So, when neuroscientist Laura Driscoll began her doctoral research at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 2012, her first task was to establish this baseline by tracking the activity of individual mouse neurons over time.

To Driscoll’s surprise, the baseline kept moving. Over the course of several days, many of the cells’ responses had shifted noticeably. Neurons that had fired when a mouse was in a specific location on day one were barely responding in the same spot after a few weeks. “It absolutely defied all of our expectations,” recalls Driscoll, who is now at the Allen Institute in Seattle, Washington. “This was so surprising that my whole project changed.”

In 2017, she and her colleagues reported findings from that project that flew in the face of neuroscience dogma.

OPEN THE BORDERS:

Using trade to undergird peace (Alan Wm. Wolff, May 20, 2026, PIIE)

To only see the WTO as a trade agreement, without appreciating its role as a peace project, is to overlook a central element of its value. Through its Trade for Peace initiative and the accession of conflict-affected countries, the WTO is seeking to carry forward the lessons learned from members that have experienced conflict, using trade integration and institution-building to support stability and reconstruction. Conflict-affected countries that are in the process of acceding include: Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Iraq, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Lebanon. (Iran has had observer status since 2005; its accession process is paused.)

The accessions process is designed to deliver, particularly to fragile and conflict-affected countries needed economic stability and growth, made possible by adhering to the organization’s rules for trade. It brings external discipline to bear, as well as opening economic opportunities. It aims at deeper integration of acceding countries into the world economy. Reforms at home are central to the benefit of acceding and being a WTO member. The WTO Chief Economist, Robert Staiger, on a panel at Yaoundé, Cameroon, during MC 14, the most recent WTO Ministerial Conference said that: “Economic arguments and evidence produced by WTO economists suggest that the largest benefits from market access bargaining in the GATT/WTO, whether for accession or during a multilateral negotiating round, are associated with the reduction of economic distortions in one’s own economy, distortions that are reduced by one’s own reciprocal market access liberalization.” An important benefit of WTO membership is the external discipline and pressure for economic reform that it provides. This can be especially valuable for conflict-affected and least-developed countries, which are often more conscious of their institutional and developmental needs than wealthier countries are of their own.

History Ends everywhere.

HOW LOSERS “WIN”:

Actually, Democracy Dies in H.R. (Amanda Taub, May 18, 2026, NY Times)

New research, drawing on an extraordinary data set from Argentina’s Dirty War in the 1970s and ’80s, suggests a very different explanation. It turns out that the kinds of career pressures familiar to employees everywhere — the desire to revive a stalled career or obtain a minor promotion — can be enough to incentivize lower- and midlevel officials to violate professional obligations, fundamental norms and even basic morality. The people who make those decisions, the research suggests, are neither extremists nor victims. They are often just middling workers looking for a way to get ahead.

“Making a Career in Dictatorship,” a new book by two German political scientists, Adam Scharpf and Christian Glassel, reads like what you might get if you crossed Hannah Arendt’s ideas about the “banality of evil” with a business school guide on how to get the most out of low performers.

Their in-depth study of Argentina’s military during that country’s era of coups and forced disappearances found that low performers — whom they refer to as “career-pressured” individuals — filled the ranks of the secret police. That service allowed them to “detour” around the ordinary military hierarchy, the book shows, achieving promotions and career success they could never have managed otherwise.

It turns out that would-be authoritarians don’t need to staff their regimes with ideological true believers, offer extreme enticements or impose draconian punishments in order to make successful power grabs. They just need to figure out how to target their ideal labor pool: the frustrated and mediocre.

MITCH AND THE FEDERALIST SOCIETY PICKED CONSERVATIVES, NOT TRUMPISTS:

The Hard Right Hates Neil Gorsuch: How the freakout over Gorsuch’s comments reveals a deeper rift between constitutionalists and nativists. (Daniel Ruggles, May 18, 2026, The Bulwark)

During a media blitz this month to promote his new children’s book, Heroes of 1776: The Story of the Declaration of Independence, Gorsuch repeated the same message over and over: The United States is a “creedal” nation—that is, a nation unified by common belief in rights, liberties, and democratic institutions. Yes, he explained, we are a people with a singular “heritage,” but it’s one of ideals, not ethnicity. Being an American requires not lineage, but belief.

It was a gentle rebuke of nationalism—and it drove the hard right nuts.

Americans largely agree with Gorsuch that, when it comes to citizenship, belief in American ideas trumps genealogy. In an earlier dispensation, his comments would have been taken as an innocuous, even saccharine, idealism about the nation’s founding and self-rule—totally typical for a conservative jurist.

But we are not in that earlier dispensation. Gorsuch’s repeated references to “creed” exposed a stark divide between far-right ideologues (with their nativist America First agenda) and the conservative originalist old guard. For decades, the right has campaigned to fill courtrooms with self-professing originalists. Now, that old guard—personified by Gorsuch, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, and Chief Justice John Roberts—is something of a wild card on the Supreme Court. And it’s causing tension, especially as the court gets ready to rule on birthright citizenship.

THERE IS NO BEAR IN THE WOODS:

I’m the Foreign Minister of Sweden. Russia’s Economy Is More Fragile Than It Seems. ( Maria Malmer Stenergard, 5/20/26, NY Times)

Russia has claimed that its economy grew by around 13 percent between 2020 and 2024, but by measuring nighttime luminosity, an established way of assessing economic activity in countries where official statistics are not available or cannot be trusted, we have estimated that the economy actually contracted by around 8 percent during this period.

We also believe inflation is substantially understated. In 2024, when inflation in Russia was reportedly around 10 percent, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 21 percent, suggesting that inflation was higher. And Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service believes that it is higher than the current official forecast of around 5 percent. This would mean Russia is overstating its purchasing power, and that its military spending capacity is weaker than it appears.

EMPATHY IS A HOAX:

Introspection is an illusion created by the brain (Nick Chater, 2/13/26, IAI News)

Yet a synthesis of decades of research in psychology and neuroscience shows that the very idea of introspection is an illusion. And for a surprising reason. It is not merely that we find it difficult to accurately perceive our inner motives, beliefs, principles, and desires (or that these are repressed, as Freud suggested). The problem is more fundamental: there are no such stable beliefs and desires “inside” us that can be observed and reported. Instead, the human mind is a wonderfully fluent, but profoundly deceptive, improviser: spinning stories justifying our thoughts and actions as fast as we ask questions. And these invented explanations are vague, inconsistent, and often provably wrong.

You can’t even know yourself, nevermind an other.

OPEN THE BORDERS UNILATERALLY:

Does Britain really want to rejoin the EU? (Julian Jessop, 19 May 2026, CapX)

For example, one recent poll by More in Common found that most people are keen that the UK and EU should be able to trade more freely with each other (why would anyone not be?). However, only a minority want to ‘align more closely with EU laws and regulations’. The UK would, of course, be obliged to adopt all ‘EU laws and regulations’ automatically if Britain rejoined the bloc.

Similarly, YouGov polling has suggested that 80% of Labour voters want a ‘customs union’ with the EU. But more sophisticated polling by the same company (for Queen Mary University London) has found that only 9% of Labour voters think that UK tariff policy should be decided by someone other than the UK government. Again, this is exactly what a customs union with the EU would entail.

THE IRON LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES:

Electoral reform won’t save the Republicans or the Democrats (David L. Leal, 05/16/26, The Hill)

Decades of research have found that socioeconomic status, and particularly education, is key to explaining voter turnout. To understand why, consider this formula: Voting likelihood equals benefits minus costs, plus duty. The benefits of voting are small for individuals, but so is the cost. While few have cast the deciding ballot in an election, voting usually requires minimal effort.

However, in “The Turnout Myth,” my Hoover Institution colleague Daron Shaw and his coauthors discuss a large “diploma gap” that has existed for decades. We see turnout differences across education levels, with the most educated about twice as likely to vote, at 80 percent, as the least, at 40 percent.

Scholars explain this in several ways: First, education reinforces the belief that voting is a civic obligation, or duty. Second, education increases knowledge about politics and government. Voting is easier when you’re familiar with the issues and parties. Third, education enhances civic skills such as public speaking, group organizing and managing paperwork that can make political participation easier.

People with more education therefore have lower costs and higher duty, which leads to greater turnout among them. Education is also associated with higher incomes and professional occupations, which allow individuals to better meet any financial or time costs of voting.

So, when voting is made more challenging, the more educated are, on average, more motivated and able to overcome the obstacles than are people with less education.

And in today’s politics, those individuals are increasingly likely to be Democrats.

LOW-HANGING FRUIT:

An Opening for Cuban Democracy: Activist Rosa María Payá says the West should recognize change is possible—and make it happen. (Carolyn Kennedy, May 15, 2026, Freedom Frequency)

Rosa María Payá continues her father’s fight against a regime that is enduring its worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The country’s economy began to falter during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the collapse of the tourism industry, and has not recovered since. Blackouts, food shortages, and a crumbling health care system are the new normal. As Rosa María Payá describes, this is not a humanitarian crisis; it is a “humanitarian catastrophe.”


Cuba is part of a larger network of authoritarian regimes working against democratic stability in Latin America and the Caribbean. “When we talk about the Cuban regime, we are talking about the head of the authoritarian octopus in our hemisphere,” said Payá. Most recently, the regime lost a key partner, Venezuela, with the US capture of Nicolás Maduro.

Payá believes this time of vulnerability for the regime presents a window of opportunity.

BREXIT SQUANDERED:

What Britain needs to learn from America: Who’s laughing now? (Henry Oliver, 5/18/26, The Pursuit of Liberalism)

Indeed, in many ways, England has been left behind. When you leave London and the South East, you quickly find a standard of living that is low by international standards. A recent poll of three thousand people found that more than half of Brits thought the UK would rank as the seventh-richest state if it joined the USA.1 In reality, we would rank fifty-first, with a lower GDP per capita than any of the fifty states. London is competitive with New York, but the North East is not competitive with the American South.

But Britain is in denial: a few years ago, even the FT claimed the US was a poor country with some rich people, but as Noah Smith pointed out, “the median American earns more income than the median resident of almost any other country on the planet.” He went on to explain that Americans considered to be poor would be doing relatively well by British standards.

…someone at around the 18th percentile of income in America in 2019 — a working-class person on the edge of being considered poor — lived in a household making $21,400 a year. That’s about the same as the median income of households in Japan, and about 84% of the median income of households in the UK.

In other words, a working-class American on the edge of poverty makes as much as a middle-class person in some rich countries.

US gas prices might be over $4 a gallon at the national average this spring thanks to the war in Iran, but that is still half of what petrol costs in England thanks to high taxes. The British government is going to ban traditional dryers, which people hardly use because British electricity prices are among the highest in Europe, while Americans have relatively low-cost energy and run their dryers all the time. In London, it is normal to live with wet laundry in the house. The British who are sceptical of America like to ask, why do I need a bigger fridge? without having lived with the joy of a fridge that can actually hold enough food for a hungry family.

The standard of living in Britain has hardly improved since the financial crisis. In 1990, the GDP per capita of the USA was $44,379 and in the UK it was $32,993. By 2024 the numbers were $75,489 and $52,621. (Expressed in international dollars at 2021 prices.) The UK, in other words, is about as rich as the USA was in 1998. And the gap is widening. US GDP is 15% higher than the pre-pandemic level. UK GDP is 6% higher. The IMF predicts GDP growth of over 2% for the USA and of less than 1% for the UK. At the same time, the UK public debt is equivalent to 93.8% of GDP, and the deficit is 4% of GDP. Productivity growth stalled during the financial crisis and never recovered, averaging about 0.6% a year now, compared to 2% in the USA.

The failure to use restored self-determination as an opportunity to open borders and deregulate was catastrophic.