Orrin Judd

hISTORY eNDS EVERYWHERE:

The Billion-Dollar Question: When Will China’s Local Debt Explode?: Unless the CCP embraces capitalist innovation and public accountability, which is unlikely, China’s local debt could cause the central bank to collapse by 2030. (Jennifer Zeng, 12/13/23, Japan Now)

The only feasible solution to China’s financial trouble seems to be the central bank’s printing money. Suppose China’s central bank prints ¥10 trillion CNY ($1.41 trillion USD) of base money annually to assist local governments with debt repayment. With only a 4× money multiplier, this would result in over ¥40 trillion CNY ($5.63 trillion USD) of circulating money.

As of the end of September 2023, China’s total money supply, M2, stood at only ¥290 trillion CNY ($40.75 trillion USD). Injecting more than ¥40 trillion CNY into this money pool within a year would have big consequences. Within less than two years, the renminbi could face destruction by the central bank itself due to rampant inflation caused by reckless money-printing.

Through meticulous calculations by Lao Man, the conclusion is that without urban investment bonds, China might struggle through the next three years. It would be a bare survival level, though, with China limping along on money printed from thin air. This situation could potentially last until 2030, which is viewed as the ultimate deadline for collapse.

‘No Hope of Rescue’ However, the dilemma posed by urban investment bonds is like a noose around the Chinese economy’s neck, capable of asphyxiating the system at any moment. No matter what the central bank does, 2024 looms as the most probable year for collapse.

Lao Man suggests some solutions.

Elevating private enterprises to the same status as state-owned enterprises is one. He also suggests empowering the public to participate in and oversee government actions. But neither of these scenarios is likely to occur. If the Chinese Communist Party were to open the door to either capitalist innovation or public accountability, its very reason for existence would evaporate. All that remains, it would seem, therefore, is to quietly await the inevitable.

Lao Man’s final conclusion was stark: “Fortunately, the wait won’t be long. Local government debt will definitely explode within the next year, with no hope of rescue.”

IT’S NOT ETHNIC CLEANSING WHEN WE DO IT:

Israel’s “Humanitarian” Expulsion: The Israeli right is capitalizing on the aftermath of October 7th to build support for a permanent transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza. (Jonathan Shamir, December 12, 2023, Jewish Currents)

The op-ed testifies to the growing prominence of what was once an extremist position within Israel: the call to push the remaining Palestinians out of historic Palestine. In the 1980s and ’90s, the idea of total Palestinian expulsion—prohibited under international law—was the sole bailiwick of extremist politicians such as Rehavam Ze’evi and Rabbi Meir Kahane. The proposal was largely absent from mainstream Israeli public discourse in the subsequent decades, but has experienced a quiet resurgence that has paralleled the recent political ascendance of the Israeli far right. In 2016, a Pew survey found that almost half of Israeli Jews supported the idea that Arabs should be “expelled or transferred from Israel.” According to Jewish studies scholar Shaul Magid, the far right’s success in the November 2022 election further “revived the idea of transfer.” As Israelis “increasingly feel that it’s either us or them” in the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7th attacks, Magid said, forced transfer out of Gaza, in particular, has become a live political option.

Once discussed plainly as a demographic and security strategy, the idea of expulsion is now being presented as a humanitarian response to the devastation in Gaza. Danon and Ben-Barak’s Wall Street Journal op-ed, which was accompanied with a publicity tour of TV studios in Israel and abroad, has been a prominent staging ground for this reframe. So far, the lawmakers’ call for a “moral” expulsion has met with minimal pushback. Indeed, Danon’s claim in an MSNBC interview that the proposal would “help many families in Gaza” went completely unchallenged. Ben-Barak found similar success on Israel’s Channel 12—the country’s most watched TV station—where journalist Ohad Hamo responded to his proposal by saying that “it is the dream of every young Gazan to emigrate.” According to Magid, this repackaging of expulsion as humanitarianism has allowed the idea to take root among mainstream Israelis. Oren Persico, a journalist at the independent Israeli media watchdog The Seventh Eye, told Jewish Currents that “transfer is a prelude for the repopulation of Gaza by Jews,” and the popularity of both ideas is rising simultaneously: According to a recent Channel 12 poll, 44% of Israelis are now supportive of reestablishing Jewish settlements in Gaza. “While Kahane is still a persona non-grata,” Magid told Jewish Currents, his “ideas have become normalized, even taking on a semblance of liberalism. This allows people to feel a sense of moral comfort with the destruction [of Gaza].”

Met one Nationalist you’ve met them all.

OUR NEXT PRESIDENT:

N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu plans to endorse Nikki Haley for president (Maegan Vazquez, Hannah Knowles and Dylan Wells, December 12, 2023, Washington Post)


New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) plans to endorse Nikki Haley for president, according to two people familiar with the decision, providing a potential boost to the former U.N. ambassador as she seeks to solidify her standing as the leading alternative to former president Donald Trump in the first GOP primary state.

The big thing for NH is that Nikki would win Kelly Ayotte the gubernatorial seat, whereas Donald cost her the Senate seat.

DEVOLVE INDIA INTO ITS CONSTITUENT PARTS:

WHY A VOTE ON ESTABLISHING AN INDEPENDENT SIKH STATE IN PUNJAB IS COMING TO CALIFORNIA (JOE MATHEWS, DECEMBER 12, 2023, Zocalo Public Square)

On January 28, Californians will finally get to cast ballots in a historic vote on whether to create a new independent country.

Why is this the first you’re hearing of this election? Because the only Californians who can vote in the election are Sikhs. The proposed independent country would be in Punjab, a state in northern India.

But that’s no reason to overlook what might be the most important election in the Golden State next year.

Indeed, the Khalistan referendum, as this ballot measure is known, is worthy of your attention for two reasons.

LIBERTARIANISM FOR THE PRETENTIOUS:

Robert Sapolsky is Determined to be Wrong (Richard Cocks, 12/12/23, Voegelin View)

In episode 693 of the podcast Modern Wisdom, Sapolsky, brought up an Orthodox Jew, reveals that at the age of fourteen he realized categorically that determinism is true, there is no purpose, and that there is no God. This bleak conclusion has never left him. This is the kind of age where one might consider the possibility that one’s parents and other people are actually robots and that solipsistically, one could be the only conscious actual human; whether other people are really seeing the same colors as you, and so on. Such puerile speculations normally recede into oblivion. Not for Sapolsky.

It’s like letting that teen reading of Atlas Shrugged determine your adulthood.

FOSSILS REPRESENT THE EXTINCT:

Solar costs are now nearly 30 per cent lower than cheapest fossil fuel option, EY says (Joshua S Hill, 12 December 2023, Renew Economy)


A new report from consulting giant EY says solar PV technology remains the cheapest source of new-build electricity in most parts of the world, with a global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCoE) that is 29% lower than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative.

In a new report analysing changes to the global energy system, EY found that in 2022, around 86%, or 187GW, of newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable power generation produced electricity at a lower cost than the average cost of fossil fuel generation.

FITN:

New Hampshire’s Lesson for America (William Ruger & Jason Sorens, December 11, 2023, AIER)

So what has New Hampshire been doing right?

First, the state has gradually and responsibly cut growth-impeding taxes, such as business taxes and the interest and dividends tax, which is being phased out. Since these tax cuts began in 2015, New Hampshire’s economic growth rate has powered ahead of its closely connected neighbor, Massachusetts.

Second, the state has mostly kept school funding local, which tends to make educational decisions more fiscally responsible. Property owners have more direct leverage and choice over their local property taxes than they do state taxes.

Third, the state is trying to solve its housing shortage, which it shares with most other Northeastern states. Local zoning has strangled housing construction, and the state has stepped in with a law requiring towns to allow “accessory dwelling units” (in-law apartments), expedited local permitting, and a housing appeals board to provide quick resolution of zoning disputes.

Fourth, the legislature has expanded personal freedom for its citizens, most notably with Education Freedom Accounts. The state’s per-student adequacy grant to local districts is now available for parents to cover educational expenses outside the public school system.

Finally, the state has been getting rid of cronyist regulations in order to increase competition and opportunities in the marketplace. Some small barriers to starting businesses have been repealed, and the governor signed universal licensing reciprocity this year.

IMPORTING DISCIPLINE:

Lessons from Argentina’s Dollarization Debate: The Challenge of the Commitment Device (Nicolás Cachanosky, December 11, 2023, AIER)

Unlike a fixed peg or a currency board, a government cannot easily abandon dollarization.

Argentina has frequently abandoned fixed pegs. It has also voided peso convertibility to the US dollar. These options are unavailable under dollarization. De-dollarizing would require the government to introduce an entirely new currency that the public does not want. Consider the challenge of currency in circulation. Would the government go into individual houses and compel owners to exchange their US dollars for a new currency they reject? A dictatorship might pull off such a move. But in a democracy such a move would likely see incumbents ousted.

The experience of Ecuador illustrates the point. Rafael Correa, who was president from 2007 – 2017, was an outspoken opponent of dollarization. But he never openly announced plans to de-dollarize Ecuador. His attempt to introduce the dinero electrónico was a total failure. As popular as Correa was, he couldn’t surpass the popularity of the US dollar.

As a monetary regime, dollarization is an institution independent of local politics. That would make a big difference in Argentina, where the average terms of the Ministry of Economics and the Central Bank president are only 1.4 and 1.5 years, respectively. Argentina cannot offer a predictable fiscal and monetary policy with key officials turning over so frequently. Since dollarization is difficult and politically costly to reverse, it establishes credibility in countries where other options are not viable.

IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERSTATE DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES:

Quantum: Computing’s Next Wave (Shane Tews, 12/11/23, AEIdeas)

Below are the highlights from my conversation with Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave, a commercial quantum company.

You mentioned autonomous vehicles and scheduling. Is that supply chain management scheduling that you’re talking about?

We have a customer that provides software to shipping ports to manage how cranes move cargo containers across the port from the ships onto the port, and then ultimately, on to the trucks. Our customer quantum-enabled their software to help compute the optimal movement of the cranes moving containers throughout the port. They found that using the schedules generated by the quantum computer, each crane could move up to 60 percent more containers in a day than the schedules the classical computers were developing. This has allowed them to increase the throughput through the port by about 12 percent. So this is a very concrete example, in the supply chain logistics arena of how quantum computers today can add value.

We keep hearing that quantum isn’t here yet, but you already have customers.

Yes, we have over 60 customers that we are working with to leverage our quantum computer today across a variety of different industries and use cases. For example, we’re working with MasterCard on improving customer loyalty rewards—basically optimizing which programs get offered to which card holders and on fraud detection. We’re working with Davidson technology, as a government contractor, on missile targeting as well as radar assignment. We’re working with grocery chain Patterson food group on employee scheduling, e-commerce, and grocery delivery.

KNOWINGNESS:


Rick Rubin on taking communion with Johnny Cash and why goals can hurt creativity (Rachel Martin, 12/10/23, NPR: Enlighten Me with Rachel Martin)

Martin: Do you believe in God?

Rubin: Yes.

Martin: You do?

Rubin: Yes, yes, yes. Yes. I have a knowingness that there is a power greater than us that seems to animate everything. That’s how I would describe it. However this system works, this world that we’re in, this universe that we’re in, however it works, I don’t think it’s accidental.

I feel like there’s some creative energy behind it. We have help. When we’re making something beautiful, we have help. We’re not working alone.

Martin: I read that when you were producing Johnny Cash, near the end of his life, with his last albums, that you took communion with him. That was something that was important to him and you were enthusiastic about it.

Rubin: From the time he got sick, we did it every day. I said, “I’ve never done communion.” And he’s like, “Oh, it’s a beautiful practice. Let’s do it together.” And then we did it together in person the first time. And then I said, “Well, while you’re sick, should we just continue doing it every day?” And he’s like, “Great, let’s do it.”

So we started doing it every day. And then when we weren’t together, I would call him every day and he would say the words, and I would close my eyes. I didn’t have the wafer physically with me, but I visualized the whole thing. I listened to the words and I experienced it with him every day. And then, when he passed, I could still hear him doing it. And I continued doing it for another six months.

Martin: Wow. I think that would change a person. To do that. Because it’s not like saying a prayer with someone. I mean, it is a highly mystical Christian ritual whereby you imagine the wafer you’re eating is actually the body of Jesus Christ and the grape juice or the wine is the blood.

Rubin: Yes.

Martin: You’re not a Christian.

Rubin: No.

Matin: What effect did that have on you, sharing that with him?

Rubin: I’m a believer. And I got to share it with him, and he was a believer. And this was his way of believing. So I got to experience his way of believing with him. And it was beautiful and I truly believe it enriched my life. It’s not calculable how powerful it felt.