2024

BUT THEN, YOU KNEW THAT ALREADY…:

Even solar energy’s biggest fans are underestimating it: Solar’s extraordinary forecast-defying growth, explained. (Umair Irfan, Sep 20, 2024, Vox

“Solar does continue to surprise us,” said Gregory Nemet, who wrote How Solar Energy Became Cheap, in an email. “It seems like it shouldn’t at this point. It’s been roughly 30 percent growth each year for 30 years. And costs continue to fall so new users — and new uses — continue to emerge.”

In the past year, solar power has experienced Brobdingnagian growth, even by solar standards. According to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank, the world is on track to install 29 percent more solar energy capacity this year — a total of 593 gigawatts — compared to last year, which was already a record year. This is more than one-quarter of the electricity produced by every operating coal plant in the world combined. In 2020, the whole world had installed just 760 GW of solar in total.

TRANSITORY IS AS TRANSITORY DOES:

Bye bye inflation. We hardly knew you… (Zachary Karabell, Sep 20, 2024, The Edgy Optimist)


With the Federal Reserve at last reversing course and lowering short-term interest rates by 50bps this week, we can officially say that a chapter of US economic history has ended. Inflation – the economic monster-under-the-bed, the Sauron of macro, the bogeyman of governments everywhere since the early 20th century, and the purported source of all woes since the orgy of federal pandemic spending in 2020 and 2021 – has receded close to its startlingly low levels of the 2010s. In short, inflation is over.

IT’S A DEFLATIONARY EPOCH:

Electricity That Costs Nothing—or Even Less? It’s Happening More and More (Matthew Dalton, Sept. 22, 2024, WSJ)


Wholesale prices swing wildly each hour of the day, and even more so as a larger share of electricity flows from wind and solar installations. Because the generation costs of wind or solar farms are negligible, market prices will be near zero when there is enough renewable power to cover most of a region’s electricity demand.

Electricity market dynamics get weirder when renewable-energy producers don’t have an incentive to stop feeding power into the grid, usually because of government subsidies. Then grids can be flooded with excess power, pushing prices into negative territory.

Van Diesen said he’s made 30 euros, equivalent to around $34, over the past five months charging his car, enough to cover the service fee from his power supplier, a Norwegian company called Tibber.

“I’m charging the car for free,” said van Diesen, who is part of a group of clean-energy enthusiasts in the Netherlands who call themselves green nerds. “To me it’s also like a hobby and a game—how far can I go?”

Doing laundry in the evening? The electricity could be free a few hours later when demand dies down and the wind picks up. Likewise, in regions with lots of solar power, charging an electric vehicle in the morning is usually far more expensive than powering up under the midday sun—or whenever the price is right.

In the U.S., most states don’t currently allow such real-time pricing, but many think that will change. Already, in some of the world’s biggest economies from Western Europe to California, the occurrence of zero and negative wholesale power prices is growing fast.

SEND MORE BUSES:

Refugees in New Hampshire turn to farming for income and a taste of home (Associated Press, 9/22/24)

Most workers at this Dunbarton farm are refugees who have escaped harrowing wars and persecution. They come from the African nations of Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia and Congo, and they now run their own small businesses, selling their crops to local markets as well as to friends and connections in their ethnic communities. Farming provides them with both an income and a taste of home.

“I like it in the USA. I have my own job,” says Somali refugee and farmer Khadija Aliow as she hams it up by sashaying past a reporter, using one hand to steady the crate of crops on her head and the other to give a thumbs-up. “Happy. I’m so happy.”

GO THE FULL YIMBY:

Foundations: Why Britain has stagnated (Ben Southwood, Samuel Hughes, Sam Bowman)

Between 1980 and 2008 Britain returned to its position as one of Europe’s most successful large economies. For the most part, Tony Blair’s governments were able to sustain these advances. In 2005 Britain’s GDP per capita was just 2.8 percent behind Germany’s, in purchasing power parity terms, and fully 20 percent higher in US dollar terms, according to the World Bank. Penn World Tables, the other major source, have the UK overtaking Germany on GDP per capita in the mid-2000s.

Britain’s relative success during this period is clearest when compared to other major economies. The chart below shows GDP per capita in France, Germany, Italy and the UK as a percentage of US GDP per capita. It shows Britain, after decades of relative stagnation, beginning to converge on the United States and overtake the other European countries from the early 1980s. Britain’s change of fortunes under Thatcher, and continued improvement under Blair, is clear.

But crucial parts of the economy were still left unfixed – notably land-use planning policy, which Thatcher’s Environment Secretary Nicholas Ridley had tried and failed to reform, and which Tony Blair’s government was unable to make a dent in either.

This left Britain with latent weaknesses that have become hugely problematic over the last quarter of a century. Since the 1990s, Britain has experienced rapid population growth, after decades of demographic stability, and big shifts in prosperity from some parts of the country to others. The decision to transition away from fossil fuels has created the need for huge quantities of new energy infrastructure, recently exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, but by no means beginning then. Across the developed world, great metropolitan agglomerations have become even more economically important. London has been among the biggest winners from this trend, in spite of the obstacles in its way.

What Britain needed in the last 25 years above all was a huge amount of building – of homes, energy supply, and transport infrastructure. Without it, Britain has fallen behind, weighed down by a development system that worked badly even in the 1950s and 60s, and that is positively disastrous today.

MAGA IS SO EUROPEAN:

The forging of countries: Two distinct and conflicting forms of nationalism – civic and ethnic – helped create the nation-states of Europe (Luka Ivan Jukićis, 9/20/24, Aeon)

Only in the decades after 1871 did this idea that civic borders should conform to ‘objective’ national ones based on ethnic criteria come to prominence. Importantly, it arose with the maturity of nationalist movements, not at their birth. […]

Today, it feels vaguely accurate to say that countries like the US, the UK or France base their national identity on the ‘civic’ nationhood of common citizenship. Poland, Hungary, Czechia or even Russia, on the other hand, appear wedded to a more ethnic idea of nationhood rooted in a common language, traditions and myths of origin.

The ethno-state is just Darwinist.

THUS, THE lONG wAR:

The soul of Strauss: On Leo Strauss & the crisis of modern liberalism. (Glenn Ellmers, June 2024, New Criterion)

It was Rousseau, Strauss explains, who fundamentally transformed the meaning and relationship of nature, freedom, and the self. For Rousseau, “freedom is identical with goodness; to be free, or to be one’s self, is to be good.” In this new understanding, “it is not virtue which makes man free but freedom which makes man virtuous.” Here we find the source of today’s celebration of the uninhibited self, the notion of the “ultimate sanctity of the individual as individual, unredeemed and unjustified,” bound to nothing higher than the self-conscious conception of his freedom.

In a coruscating passage from an essay titled “Perspectives on the Good Society,” Strauss takes aim at the impotent rage that is the inevitable consequence of this flight from all authority. The self, Strauss explains, “is obviously a descendant of the soul”—meaning “it is not the soul.” The soul “is a part of an order which does not originate in the soul.” Those who believe in the self, however, see it as sovereign. It “does not defer to anything higher than itself; yet it is no longer exhilarated by the sense of its sovereignty, but rather oppressed by it.” Finding no purpose within or without, the self becomes “nothing but the accusation or the scream.” Strauss certainly seems to anticipate the oppressive negativity of today’s ideologues of systemic racism, who “constitute themselves by this condemnation; they are nothing but this condemnation or rejection.”

Rather than leave the matter there, Strauss connects the psychological to the political (and the philosophic). Those who can only scream about cosmic injustice behave as if they are in hell, and for them, Strauss notes, hell is “life in the United States.” They act as if they are rebelling against “a holy law; but of this they appeared to be wholly unconscious.”

Strauss’s reference here to law, and especially holy law, is critical. Human beings, when not deranged by ideology, do in fact find their purpose in and through a community that sees itself as holy. Every premodern society was grounded in a sacred law that insisted, as Strauss explains, that “not everything is permitted.” (This sacred community could well be, by the way, a polity deriving its authority from “the laws of nature and nature’s god.”) It is the confrontation with these divine codes, which define all premodern regimes, that first made political philosophy possible. Strauss famously referred to this as “the theological-political problem.”

MAGA is nowhere more connected with the Left than in its belief that America is Hell.

SUBLIME:

Problem-solving matter: Life is starting to look a lot less like an outcome of chemistry and physics, and more like a computational process (David C Krakaueris & Chris Kempes, 9/18/24, Aeon)

Today, ‘adaptive function’ is the primary criterion for identifying the right kinds of biotic chemistry that give rise to life, as the theoretical biologist Michael Lachmann (our colleague at the Santa Fe Institute) likes to point out. In the sciences, adaptive function refers to an organism’s capacity to biologically change, evolve or, put another way, solve problems. ‘Problem-solving’ may seem more closely related to the domains of society, culture and technology than to the domain of biology. We might think of the problem of migrating to new islands, which was solved when humans learned to navigate ocean currents, or the problem of plotting trajectories, which our species solved by learning to calculate angles, or even the problem of shelter, which we solved by building homes. But genetic evolution also involves problem-solving. Insect wings solve the ‘problem’ of flight. Optical lenses that focus light solve the ‘problem’ of vision. And the kidneys solve the ‘problem’ of filtering blood. This kind of biological problem-solving – an outcome of natural selection and genetic drift – is conventionally called ‘adaptation’. Though it is crucial to the evolution of life, new research suggests it may also be crucial to the origins of life.

This problem-solving perspective is radically altering our knowledge of the Universe. Life is starting to look a lot less like an outcome of chemistry and physics, and more like a computational process.

WE ARE ALL DESIGNISTS:

Richard Dawkins on reverse engineering evolution’s optimal beauty (Richard Dawkins, 9/17/24, Big Think)

Reverse engineering assumes that the object facing us had a purpose in the mind of a competent designer, a purpose that can be guessed. The reverse engineer sets up a hypothesis as to what a sensible designer might have had in mind, then checks the mechanism to see if it fits the hypothesis. Reverse engineering works well for animal bodies as well as for man-made machines. The fact that the latter were deliberately designed by conscious engineers while the former were designed by unconscious natural selection makes surprisingly little difference…

Sublime. Dawkins has always been a self-parody.

THE BEST ADVICE AT ALL TIMES IS TO BE SQUARE:


When Heroin Hit Jazz: Fascination with a deadly drug ravaged a generation of great American musicians (Stephen Eide, City Journal)

Addiction, in any era, is attributed to many risk factors, one of which is having not much else going on in your life. “You become a narcotics addict because you do not have strong motivations in any other direction,” William S. Burroughs writes in Junkie (1953). That may describe the lives of many addicts in the contemporary American landscape. It did not characterize someone like Miles Davis in the late 1940s, who, before he got deeply into heroin, was in the artistic vanguard and knew it. Miles and his colleagues always had something to recover for. Weren’t they devoted to their art? Why did they jeopardize it?

The drug’s appeal came down to status. Using heroin was a way to prove that you belonged to an edgy set. The beboppers felt that desire especially keenly. Bebop (originally “modern jazz” ) is the jazz form most closely associated with heroin. Bebop combined both technical virtuosity and authenticity, qualities that stemmed from the late-night jam-session culture from which it arose. Bebop represented jazz’s high-modernist period, marking a great leap forward, eventually leading to the postmodernist abstractions of free jazz but without going all the way into tedium. Bebop did more than the swing and Dixieland sounds that it supplanted to give jazz its reputation as high culture. As appealing as big-band swing was (and still is), had jazz’s development stopped there, it is doubtful that its reputation as “America’s classical music” would be as secure as it is now.

That was all in the future, though. In their day, the members of the bebop generation liked to be regarded as outsiders. “Bebop was invented by the cats who did get out of the army,” says the protagonist of the film Round Midnight (1986), played by Dexter Gordon and based on Bud Powell and Lester Young. Beboppers drew a sharper distinction between the modes of entertainer and artist than did predecessors like Duke Ellington and Louis Armstrong.

Bebop musicians played at a fast tempo, often with wit and whimsy, but not much sentimentality. One appeal of bebop lies in its emotional restraint, which sets it against the romantic strains of certain varieties of nineteenth-century classical music and, certainly, saccharine pop songs. (The heroin addict nodding off, too, displays a limited emotional range.) But the main connection between playing bebop and taking heroin was that both were seen as the mark of an unconventional spirit. In critic Nat Hentoff’s view, “Heroin, in short, became the ‘in’ drug more because it was so defiantly anti-square than because of any relationship between the music as such and the effects of the drug.”

Jazz was city music, and all the cities associated with its rise—Kansas City, New Orleans, Chicago—had a reputation for being “wide open.” A working jazz musician maintained nighttime hours, traveled a lot, and was sporadically employed—all qualities associated with looser living. Long before heroin arrived on the jazz scene, alcoholism was rife and sent several jazz greats to an early grave. But boozing had far less status appeal than heroin.

One senses that white musicians experienced status concerns with particular acuteness. Insecurity seems evident on Evans’s face in almost every photograph of him. The Winick study reported that two-thirds of musicians who were “occasional or regular” heroin consumers were white. It was a white trumpeter, Red Rodney, who made the definitive statement about the drug’s status allure: “[Heroin] was our badge. It was the thing that made us different from the rest of the world. It was the thing that said, ‘We know, you don’t know.’ It was the thing that gave us membership in a unique club, and for this membership, we gave up everything else in the world. Every ambition. Every desire. Everything.”

One peer-pressure effect that crossed racial boundaries was the influence of alto saxophonist Charlie “Yardbird” or “Bird” Parker. Bird’s life offers strong evidence that such a thing as an “addictive personality” exists. Single-minded in his devotion to satisfying his various appetites, he was found to be psychopathic by at least one psychiatrist. What Bird’s family and colleagues saw as callous disregard for their well-being has been spun by some later commentators as reaction to racism’s trauma. Many also excused Parker because of his artistic abilities, the reputation of which has only grown over time. The combination in one man of Carnegie Hall and skid row created a potent attraction. The conventional wisdom, as quoted in Ross Russell’s biography Bird Lives! (1973), was: “To play like Bird, you have to do like Bird!”