One election victory does not make a new era in American politics − here’s what history shows (Philip Klinkner, November 14, 2024 , NH Bulletin)
Despite the lessons of this history, a new round of doomsayers are ready to write the Democrats’ obituary in 2024. According to one journalist, “Democrats are a lost party. Come January, they’ll have scant power in the federal government, and shriveling clout in the courts and states.”
The Washington Post reports, “More broadly, many Democrats view their defeat – with Trump making inroads with Latinos, first-time voters, and lower- and middle-income households, according to preliminary exit polls – not just as a series of tactical campaign blunders, but as evidence of a shattered party with a brand in shambles.”
I believe – as the author of a book about how political parties respond to election defeats, and as the example of 2004 shows – it’s easy to overstate the enduring impact of an election. Unforeseen events arise that alter the political landscape in unpredictable ways. The party in power often makes mistakes. New candidates emerge to energize and inspire the defeated party.
Zigging and zagging
The parties themselves are often incapable of figuring out the best way forward.Following Mitt Romney’s loss in the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee commissioned what it called an “autopsy” to determine how the party should move forward. The report urged Republicans to become more inclusive to women, young people, Asians, Latinos, and gay Americans by softening their tone on immigration and social issues. The report was a thoughtful and thorough examination of the problems confronting the GOP.
Nonetheless, in 2016 Donald Trump took the party in exactly the opposite direction and ended up winning anyway.
I’d be the last person to try to predict the 2028 election, but there are a number of reasons to be skeptical of doom and gloom scenarios for the Democratic Party.