WELL, THAT’S BORING…:

One election victory does not make a new era in American politics − here’s what history shows (Philip Klinkner, November 14, 2024 , NH Bulletin)

Despite the lessons of this history, a new round of doomsayers are ready to write the Democrats’ obituary in 2024. According to one journalist, “Democrats are a lost party. Come January, they’ll have scant power in the federal government, and shriveling clout in the courts and states.”

The Washington Post reports, “More broadly, many Democrats view their defeat – with Trump making inroads with Latinos, first-time voters, and lower- and middle-income households, according to preliminary exit polls – not just as a series of tactical campaign blunders, but as evidence of a shattered party with a brand in shambles.”

I believe – as the author of a book about how political parties respond to election defeats, and as the example of 2004 shows – it’s easy to overstate the enduring impact of an election. Unforeseen events arise that alter the political landscape in unpredictable ways. The party in power often makes mistakes. New candidates emerge to energize and inspire the defeated party.

Zigging and zagging


The parties themselves are often incapable of figuring out the best way forward.

Following Mitt Romney’s loss in the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee commissioned what it called an “autopsy” to determine how the party should move forward. The report urged Republicans to become more inclusive to women, young people, Asians, Latinos, and gay Americans by softening their tone on immigration and social issues. The report was a thoughtful and thorough examination of the problems confronting the GOP.

Nonetheless, in 2016 Donald Trump took the party in exactly the opposite direction and ended up winning anyway.

I’d be the last person to try to predict the 2028 election, but there are a number of reasons to be skeptical of doom and gloom scenarios for the Democratic Party.

BUT HE WON’T:

President Trump Should Abandon Biden’s Misguided War on Big Business (Mark Jamison, 11/14/24, AEIdeas)

Yes, industry concentration has increased—but this trend reflects a more productive economy, not a broken one. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have a marginal impact on concentration, and rising concentration is largely a result of two factors: improving productivity and expanding regulation. Ironically, Biden’s regulatory efforts risk making concentration worse, not better. Large firms benefit from regulatory barriers to entry and economies of scale in compliance, leaving smaller competitors at a disadvantage.

Our study examined five potential drivers of industry concentration: productivity, regulation, M&A activity, imports, and information technology (IT). Although data limitations prevented us to showing causation, we did find that productivity is the primary consideration. Larger firms achieve economies of scale, allowing each worker to produce more and giving consumers more of what they want. In other words, concentration signals economic strength, not weakness.

Regulation, the second biggest factor, exacerbates concentration in multiple ways. Large firms can absorb the costs of compliance more easily than small ones, gaining a competitive edge. Regulatory barriers also reduce opportunities for “creative destruction,” a process where new firms can disrupt and replace established players. There are counter examples, such as the 1994 Riegle-Neal Act, an act of deregulation that encouraged industry concentration by allowing interstate banking and branching. But on net, more regulation means larger businesses.

Regulations kill.

STARSHIP PUPPIES:

Whose Future Is It Anyway?: Jess Maginity reviews Jordan S. Carroll’s “Speculative Whiteness: Science Fiction and the Alt-Right.” (Jess Maginity, November 12, 2024, LA Review of Books)

IN THE 1970s, a group of French right-wing intellectuals coalesced around the idea that cultural influence, not direct political action, determines the future. Led by Alain de Benoist, the Research and Study Group for European Civilization (GRECE) borrowed heavily from communist intellectual Antonio Gramsci to promote the ideas of what would become the French Nouvelle Droite (New Right). At the time Gramsci was writing, communist doctrine theorized culture as something emergent from the economy, and not something with a distinct impact on the organization of a given society. Gramsci disagreed. He argued that ideas, politics, and economics are each active forces in society and while they all impact each other, none of them simply emerges from another. The New Left embraced this paradigm through countercultural movements in the 1960s; what is often overlooked in history books is how a New Right was not far behind. The use of culture as a vehicle for politics (referred to as metapolitics) belongs to neither the Right nor the Left; a culture war needs two adversaries.

In the world of science fiction, this culture war has been evident in online forums, publications, and awards campaigning. The fight is for ownership of the genre. In the mid-2010s, the Hugo awards served as the primary battlefield for this front of the culture war. A group of right-wing science fiction fans and creators calling themselves the Sad Puppies formed a voting bloc to advocate the return to the genre’s supposed roots: pulpy outer-space hero stories. The Sad Puppies’ campaign was a populist one: they argued that elites, disparagingly referred to as “literati,” were pushing a political agenda and were silencing the true values of the people by presenting awards to more underrepresented authors whose stake in the genre was often, the Puppies insinuated, inauthentic. The Rabid Puppies emerged a few years into the Sad Puppies’ efforts. As their name suggests, the Rabid Puppies were unapologetic in their misogyny, homophobia, and racism. Whereas the Sad Puppies wanted the Hugos to celebrate the science fiction they were nostalgic for, the Rabid Puppies wanted to burn the Hugos to the ground. Why did a genre built around speculation and infinite possible futures spark such an impulse towards exclusivity? In his new book, Speculative Whiteness: Science Fiction and the Alt-Right, Jordan S. Carroll argues that the stakes of this cultural battlefield boil down to one question: who deserves to write the future? […]

In his introduction, Carroll discusses the close proximity of science fiction to radical right-wing politics since the early 20th century. To some extent, popular culture was always a tool used by the Far Right. Theorists of the French New Right described intentional ideological influence on popular culture aimed at a distant political victory as “metapolitics.” As Andrew Breitbart summarizes, “Politics is downstream from culture.” Carroll describes this tactic, alluding to his focus on speculative genres, as “fascist worldmaking.” The ideology that structures fascist worldmaking is speculative whiteness: “For the alt-right,” Carroll says, “whiteness represents a matrix of possibilities more important than any actual accomplishments the white race may have already achieved.” There are five “myths” that constitute speculative whiteness: first, white people are uniquely good at speculating about the future and innovating in the present; second, nonwhite people are incapable of imagining the future and making long-term plans for the future; third, the true grandeur of whiteness will only be apparent in a high-tech fascist utopia; fourth, science fiction is a genre only white authors are truly able to produce; and fifth, speculative genres have the metapolitical potential of allowing a brainwashed white population to see their racial potential.

Big Sister Is Watching You (Whittaker Chambers, December 28, 1957, National Review)

One Big Brother is, of course, a socializing elite (as we know, several cut-rate brands are on the shelves). Miss Rand, as the enemy of any socializing force, calls in a Big Brother of her own contriving to do battle with the other. In the name of free enterprise, therefore, she plumps for a technocratic elite (I find no more inclusive word than technocratic to bracket the industrial-financial-engineering caste she seems to have in mind). When she calls “productive achievement” man’s “noblest activity,” she means, almost exclusively, technological achievement, supervised by such a managerial political bureau. She might object that she means much, much more; and we can freely entertain her objections. But, in sum, that is just what she means. For that is what, in reality, it works out to. And in reality, too, by contrast with fiction, this can only head into a dictatorship, however benign, living and acting beyond good and evil, a law unto itself (as Miss Rand believes it should be), and feeling any restraint on itself as, in practice, criminal, and, in morals, vicious — as Miss Rand clearly feels it to be. Of course, Miss Rand nowhere calls for a dictatorship. I take her to be calling for an aristocracy of talents. We cannot labor here why, in the modern world, the pre-conditions for aristocracy, an organic growth, no longer exist, so that impulse toward aristocracy always emerges now in the form of dictatorship.

Nor has the author, apparently, brooded on the degree to which, in a wicked world, a materialism of the Right and a materialism of the Left first surprisingly resemble, then, in action, tend to blend each with each, because, while differing at the top in avowed purpose, and possibly in conflict there, at bottom they are much the same thing. The embarrassing similarities between Hitler‘s National Socialism and Stalin’s brand of Communism are familiar. For the world, as seen in materialist view from the Right, scarcely differs from the same world seen in materialist view from the Left. The question becomes chiefly: who is to run that world in whose interests, or perhaps, at best, who can run it more efficiently?

Something of this implication is fixed in the book’s dictatorial tone, which is much its most striking feature. Out of a lifetime of reading, I can recall no other book in which a tone of overriding arrogance was so implacably sustained. Its shrillness is without reprieve. Its dogmatism is without appeal. In addition, the mind which finds this tone natural to it shares other characteristics of its type. 1) It consistently mistakes raw force for strength, and the rawer the force, the more reverent the posture of the mind before it. 2) It supposes itself to be the bringer of a final revelation. Therefore, resistance to the Message cannot be tolerated because disagreement can never be merely honest, prudent, or just humanly fallible. Dissent from revelation so final (because, the author would say, so reasonable) can only be willfully wicked. There are ways of dealing with such wickedness, and, in fact, right reason itself enjoins them. From almost any page of Atlas Shrugged, a voice can be heard, from painful necessity, commanding: “To a gas chamber — go!” The same inflexibly self-righteous stance results, too (in the total absence of any saving humor), in odd extravagances of inflection and gesture — that Dollar Sign, for example. At first, we try to tell ourselves that these are just lapses, that this mind has, somehow, mislaid the discriminating knack that most of us pray will warn us in time of the difference between what is effective and firm, and what is wildly grotesque and excessive. Soon we suspect something worse. We suspect that this mind finds, precisely in extravagance, some exalting merit; feels a surging release of power and passion precisely in smashing up the house.

IT’S EARLY STAGE CAPITALISM IN AMERICA’S YOUTH:

How Nigh Is the End? Predictions for Geysers, Marriages, Poker Streaks and the Human Race (John Tierney, July 16, 2007, NY Times Tierney Lab)


Imagine you have just landed on another planet and entered Geyser Intergalactic Park. You know nothing about geysers except that they sometimes start shooting liquid and sometimes stop. You see two active geysers, each with a digital stopwatch next to it recording how long it’s been shooting. One geyser has been shooting for 100 million years. The other has been shooting for 10 seconds.

Can you predict which of these geysers will stop first?

You may think there’s an easy answer, but it’s not so clear to the philosophers and probability experts who have been debating the predictions of J. Richard Gott III, the Princeton physicist whom I discuss in my Findings column. He says you can make forecasts with 95-percent certainty about the likely longevity of the human race – or your marriage, or your winning streak at the poker table — simply by looking at how long it has existed. The longer something’s been around, the longer he expects it to last.

By that logic, you should expect the 10-second geyser to stop first, but it’s not so simple, as Bradley Monton and Brian Kierland explain in an excellent article in the Philosophical Quarterly. These philosophers – at the University of Colorado and the University of Missouri, respectively – took a long look at the debate over Dr. Gott’s forecasting method.

Dr. Gott’s Copernican Formula assumes that whatever you’re observing is unlikely to still be in the first one-fortieth of its lifespan, so if it’s already been around for x amount of time, it’s unlikely to last an additional 39x amount of time. Conversely, it’s probably not very close to its demise — – it’s probably still in the first 39/40 of its total lifespan, not in the final 1/40 — so you can predict that its remaining life is likely to be at least 1/39th of x.

Dr. Gott applied his formula to the plays and musicals that were open on Broadway the day his original paper was published in Nature in 1993. Of the 44 Broadway productions, 40 have closed within the forecast limits (including “Cats,” then being advertised as “now and forever.”) Depending on what happens with the remaining four – none is yet near its upper limit – Dr. Gott’s accuracy rate will be somewhere between 90 and 100 percent, which jibes nicely with the 95-percent accuracy rate that his formula is supposed to yield.

Human extinction could come within 5,100 years (Christopher Ingraham, October 16, 2017, Washington Post)


Every day, it seems, brings with it fresh new horrors. Mass murder. Catastrophic climate change. Nuclear annihilation. It’s all enough to make a reasonable person ask: How much longer can things go on this way? A Princeton University astrophysicist named J. Richard Gott has a surprisingly precise answer to that question.

Assuming that you and I are not so special as to be born at either the dawn of a very long-lasting human civilization or the twilight years of a short-lived one, we can apply Gott’s 95 percent confidence formula to arrive at an estimate of when the human race will go extinct: between 5,100 and 7.8 million years from now.