Latin America

hISTORY eNDS EVERYWHERE:

Under Pressure from Trump, Cuban Leader Calls for ‘Urgent’ Economic Change ( Luis Ferré-Sadurní and David C. Adams, March 2, 2026, NY Times)

Mr. Díaz-Canel spoke of the need to give municipalities and the Cuban private sector more autonomy, urged more foreign investment in the energy sector and called for a “resizing of the state apparatus,” according to state media.

“We must focus immediately on implementing the most urgent and necessary transformations to the economic and social model,” Mr. Díaz-Canel said in a speech to the Council of Ministers, the highest body of the government, according to state media.

Mr. Díaz-Canel’s calls for change, which were vague and light in details, appeared to be a direct response to the United States’ increased pressure on the Communist regime and a stark acknowledgment of the toll the U.S. oil blockade has inflicted on Cuba, which is facing one of its most severe economic and humanitarian crisis in decades.

Help them do so.

WHEN YOU FINALLY HAVE A FUTURE:

Milei Hunts for Over $250 Billion That Argentines Have Hidden in Secret Stashes (Samantha Pearson and Silvina Frydlewsky, Feb. 3, 2026, WSJ)

Along the leafy boulevards of Buenos Aires, optimism is rising as the government softens financial controls, encouraging Argentines to plow previously undeclared cash into everything from cars to real estate.

“Customers are getting bolder, there is less need to hide things,” said Fabian Luciani, a car salesman in the city for the past 25 years. More than half of his clients pay in cash, he said, sometimes with dollars that families say have been buried in their backyards for years.

The color of the notes is usually a dead giveaway.

“They’ve got yellowish, brownish stains—you know, from humidity,” Luciani said, musing about how many dollars now sitting in the U.S. Treasury bear the stains of Argentine soil.

NEVER RETURN TO HISTORY:

Three Lessons from Venezuela’s Economic Collapse: Policy choices turned an oil-rich democracy into a petrostate, then into an authoritarian economy where repression followed redistribution. (Matthew D. Mitchell, January 23, 2026, Daily Economy)

Oil was not the only explanation for Venezuela’s 1970s prosperity. The government spent and taxed modestly. It left most industry in private hands. Inflation was low. And international trade was almost entirely free of tariffs and regulatory barriers to trade.

In 1970, Venezuela scored a little less than 7 on the Fraser Institute’s 10-point Economic Freedom of the World index, making it the 13th most economically free country in the world, just ahead of Japan.

But as the rest of the world liberalized in the 1980s and 1990s, Venezuela went in the opposite direction.

AIN’T GONNA WORK MADURO’S FARM NO MORE:

Anatomy of an economic suicide: Venezuela under Maduro (Amirreza Etasi, January 4, 2026, asia Times)


This report is not a political manifesto; it is an economic autopsy. It’s about the arithmetic of ruin. Between 2013 and 2025, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela experienced the single largest economic contraction in modern history for a country not at war. According to data from the World Bank and the IMF, the economy evaporated approximately 80% of its GDP, a figure that dwarfs what happened to the United States in the Great Depression (29%) and to the Soviet Union during its collapse.

For the international observer, particularly in Asia, this collapse offers a critical case study in “fiscal dominance” and the destruction of the price mechanism. It was not merely the result of falling oil prices, or external sanctions, but the mathematical inevitability of specific technical decisions: the monetization of deficits, the expropriation of supply chains and the decapitalization of the state oil company (PDVSA).

A FASCIST INTERLUDE CAN SAVE YOU, BUT THEN YOU NEED TO LIBERALIZE FULLY:

Exploring The Chile Project (J.P. Bastos, 12/11/25, EconLib)

The government of Salvador Allende is also the subject of many misconceptions. Edwards recognizes that part of the confusion stems from the fact that Allende was from the Socialist (and not from the Communist) Party, which led authors to mistakenly portray him as a relatively moderate candidate even though, in Chile, the Socialists were much more to the left and had close ties with Cuba and North Korea.2

The book offers a detailed overview of Allende’s economic policies. For instance, Edwards reveals that the government’s grasp over the economy went significantly beyond the well-known nationalization of U.S.-owned copper mines. It also nationalized the banking sector and enforced its right to take control, for an undetermined period, of hundreds of factories producing goods “in short supply.” This short supply was often staged by unions stopping the factory floor and creating artificial shortages. He notes that every import required a license, with some tariffs reaching 250 percent. He also describes how perverse and arbitrary mechanisms were used to set price controls, which led to confiscation of goods, often imposed huge fines, and, sometimes, sent “speculators” to prison. […]

Recurring in Edwards’ narrative in the third and final part of the book is that, despite the breadth of the reforms implemented during the regime, much else was also done after the return to democracy to deepen and extend the reforms. This continuation was often undertaken by center-left politicians. This insight invites reflection on the role Chicago Boys. On the one hand, their ideas undoubtedly charted the path to greater economic freedom, much needed in Chile after Allende’s populist policies.

On the other hand, Chile’s experience highlights the limitations to economic growth and prosperity under a dictatorship. Recent empirical research has analyzed this issue in Pinochet’s Chile from two different sides. Escalante (2022) shows that the Chilean GDP per capita underperformed for at least the first 15 years following the coup. Arenas, Toni, and Paniagua (2024) also question the timing of the “Chilean miracle”, arguing that it only really developed following the return to democracy. Indeed, other Latin American development “miracles” (in Uruguay and Costa Rica) occurred without a similar story of a liberalizing autocrat.

THE CRYING ENDS:

Two Years of Milei: The Reform Agenda Moves Forward in Argentina (Marcos Falcone, 12/10/25, Cato at Liberrty)

As of September, the economy is growing at 5 percent on a yearly basis. Poverty, which exceeded 40 percent before Milei took office and peaked at 52.9 percent in the first half of 2024, is now down to 31.6 percent. Monthly inflation, which often surpassed 10 percent in the pre-Milei era and reached 25 percent in December 2023, now hovers around 2 percent. Both exports and imports are rising rapidly.

DEFLATION WORKS:

How Milei made austerity popular (Julieta Casas, 11/20/25, Englesberg Ideas)

How has Milei managed to maintain popular support? A comparison with the country’s past austerity administrations suggests two possible reasons. First, while the president’s ‘chainsaw’ economic policies have cut into the real incomes of broad segments of the population and led to a stagnation of economic growth, they did so early on in his administration. After a harsh initial shock, the mid-term elections coincided with a rebound of the economy, potentially aiding the president’s electoral support. What’s more, a drastic reduction of inflation has worked to his advantage.

hISTORY eNDS EVERYWHERE:

Argentina Is on a Path to Economic Success (Nouriel Roubini, 11/03/25, Project Syndicate)

Thus, heading into the recent legislative election, Argentina’s problem was about liquidity, not solvency. With electoral uncertainties weighing on growth this year – especially after the Peronist opposition performed better than expected in Buenos Aires’s provincial election in September – investors had grown nervous. Following a couple of corruption scandals and tactical mistakes on Milei’s part, the peso had weakened, despite interventions to keep the exchange rate within a set band. Domestic interest rates surged, Argentina’s sovereign spread widened significantly, and the stock market weakened. If the Peronists could take enough seats to wield an effective veto, Milei’s entire reform program could unravel.


But since Argentina’s problem was merely about liquidity, Milei sought and received a controversial $20 billion swap line from the US Treasury, whose support was conditional on him prevailing in the election. In the event, he and allied parties triumphed, picking up seats in both chambers. By fixating so much on electoral uncertainty, Milei’s political links to US President Donald Trump, and an overvalued exchange rate, the financial commentariat had ignored the promise of his radical fiscal and other reforms.

Now, for the first time in ages, Argentina may escape the policies that have repeatedly driven it into debt defaults and high inflation. After the most recent Peronist administration had pushed the country close to an inflation spiral and another default, Milei started cleaning up the mess with ruthless efficiency. While many have criticized his draconian approach, the results of the October election show that the Argentine people would prefer short-term economic pain over a return to Peronist policies.