July 7, 2025

ALWAYS STRUCK BY HOW MUCH HARDER IT IS TO BE A CRIMINAL THAN JUST BEING HONEST:

The real Salt Path: how a blockbuster book and film were spun from lies, deceit and desperation (Chloe Hadjimatheou, 7/05/25, The Observer)


When I first call Ros Hemmings, I expect her to be surprised. A widow in her 60s living in rural North Wales, she has never received a call from an investigative journalist in London. But instead she tells me: “Oh no, I have a very good idea why you are ringing.” She has been waiting for this call for years.

Hemmings rightly suspected that I wanted to ask her about a woman she knows as Sally Walker. Millions of people around the world know Sally by a different name: Raynor Winn. She is the author and protagonist of one of the most successful British non-fiction books in recent years. The Salt Path traces Raynor and her husband Moth’s 630-mile journey along the sea-swept South West Coast Path.

A heartbreaking “true” story of two people in their early 50s forced out of their rural home in Wales and weighed down by a sudden diagnosis of Moth’s terminal illness, The Salt Path went straight to the top of the bestseller charts, selling more than 2m copies worldwide since its publication in 2018.

Winn has since written two sequels and has a lucrative publishing deal with Penguin to produce at least one more. Five weeks ago The Salt Path reached new audiences when it was released in the UK as a film, starring Gillian Anderson and Jason Isaacs, and Winn is a co-producer.

Standing proudly on the red carpet outside the Lighthouse Cinema in Newquay, Raynor, 60, told TV cameras at the film’s UK premiere that the experience was “almost unbelievable”. In that moment, she and Moth seemed like the ultimate examples of British grit and perseverance.

Back in Wales, Hemmings saw a very different picture. Because she knew something about Winn that almost everyone – her publishers, her agents, the film producers – had missed. She knew that Raynor Winn wasn’t her real name and that several aspects of her story were untrue. She also believed she was a thief.

COVID WAS THE BEST BOOST SINCE Y2K:

The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth (Timothy Taylor, July 3, 2025, Conversable Economist)

Economists have come up with four potential explanations. Three of those suggest this surge in productivity growth probably won’t continue.

The first explanation is that this is mostly just a reflection of the rise of work from home. … [I]f an increase in work from home drove the extra boost to productivity, that would be a one-time boost to the level of productivity, not a change to the overall growth rate going forward.

The second explanation is what economists call “labor reallocation and increased match quality.” Which kind of tells you why you should never ask for messaging advice from people with PhDs in economics. But this is just the idea that before Covid people were stuck in jobs they didn’t love and then the Great Resignation essentially let people rematch to do things that they are more motivated or better suited to do, and productivity went up. Even if you buy that as a driver, quit rates and other measures of job turnover are back to their pre-Covid levels, so the lovefest is probably done. This one, too, would be a one-time increase to the level of productivity, not a longer-lived change to the growth rate.

The third explanation is entrepreneurial dynamism: The number of startups each year was steady or falling for a long time, and it jumped at the start of Covid to a higher level and it hasn’t gone back down. But again, if new firms have higher productivity, this jump will show up as a one-time increase, not a sustained increase in the growth rate.

The fourth and final explanation is that this boom in productivity has been tech and AI driven. I realize that might have been where many of you first started, but note that economists are still skeptical—mainly because there hasn’t been enough adoption yet to explain why the economy-wide productivity growth rate would’ve increased this much.