2024

AS ENERGY COSTS TREND TOWARDS ZERO…:

Some Signs of Renewed American Techno-Optimism (James Pethokoukis, 9/03/24, AEIdeas)

A Pew Research poll last month found 56 percent of us favor more nuclear power plants to generate electricity, up from 43 percent in 2020. The National Nuclear Energy Public Opinion Survey, conducted in May, found that 77 percent favored using nuclear energy for electricity in the USA, a record high.

Given public opinion, maybe it’s not surprising that nuclear energy may benefit no matter who wins the presidential election in November.[…]

Kamala Harris hasn’t been so definite, but analysts think she would also be supportive by continuing the pro-nuclear policies contained in the Inflation Reduction Act, including various production and investment tax credits. In “Nuclear revival’ priced into a potential Harris administration,” the Financial Times points out that if Harris wins, a likely Republican-controlled Senate would block major climate legislation. Moreover, recent Supreme Court rulings have limited the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority on climate regulations, making agency-led climate action more difficult. This shifts the focus to Congress, “and that means Harris will need to find climate policies that have bipartisan support—like nuclear power,” one investment analyst told the Financial Times.

This is all very encouraging, especially when you add in the declining political support for severe limitations on AI due to fear of science-fictional threats. The combination of more energy and more intelligence is what made the modern world and will help make a better world tomorrow.

THAT WAS EASY:

After Immunity: How Judge Chutkan Should Apply Trump v. U.S.—and When (Norman L. Eisen, Matthew A. Seligman, E. Danya Perry and Joshua Kolb, September 2, 2024, Just Security)

In our view, it is appropriate to proceed first with briefing on whether the superseding indictment and other evidence to be presented at trial meet the tests of Trump, as suggested by the special counsel in the joint status report. Immunity issues are typically treated as a threshold matter, Hunter, 502 U.S. at 227 (1991) (the Supreme Court has “repeatedly … stressed the importance of resolving immunity questions at the earliest possible stage in litigation”), and doing so is consistent with the Court’s opinion in Trump, including the rationale for interlocutory appeal to protect the interests of the presidency.

As we have explained, Smith has neatly teed up the critical questions for the trial court judge with his streamlined pleading, stripping out material that clearly implicates immunity and adding modifying language to clarify allegations that the government believes relate to unofficial conduct. All of that has made the complex task of applying the Trump test easier for the judge and the parties, and we believe the D.C. Circuit and the Supreme Court will ultimately uphold the superseding indictment.

The most hotly contested issue is likely to be whether the allegations about the vice president concern his official executive branch role, his legislative role as the president of the Senate, or his private one as running mate and whether they are or are not immune. A full analysis of this point is beyond the scope of this article and will be the subject of a future one, but we believe the special counsel has the better of the argument here. See Trump, 144 S. Ct. at 2337 (“Despite the Vice President’s expansive role of advising and assisting the President within the Executive Branch, the Vice President’s Article I responsibility of ‘presiding over the Senate’ is ‘not an “executive branch” function.’ With respect to the certification proceeding in particular, Congress has legislated extensively to define the Vice President’s role in the counting of the electoral votes, see, e.g., 3 U.S.C. § 15, and the President plays no direct constitutional or statutory role in that process”) (quoting Memorandum from L. Silberman, Deputy Atty. Gen., to R. Burress, Office of the President, Re: Conflict of Interest Problems Arising Out of the President’s Nomination of Nelson A. Rockefeller To Be Vice President Under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the Constitution 2 (Aug. 28, 1974)).

Depending on whether and how Trump challenges these and other allegations in the indictment, briefs alone may not be sufficient to resolve the dispute or to rebut any presumption of official conduct, and an evidentiary hearing or “mini-trial” may be required, such as with respect to the question of the capacities in which Pence was acting at particular crucial moments. It may well be that the dispositive evidence as to such questions is his own testimony.

LIBERALISM JUST KEEPS FAILING UPWARDS:

The great wealth wave: The tide has turned – evidence shows ordinary citizens in the Western world are now richer and more equal than ever before (Daniel Waldenström, 9/01/24, Aeon)

New research studies, and more careful inspection of the previous historical data, paint a picture where the main catalysts for wealth equalisation are neither the devastations of war nor progressive tax regimes. War and progressive taxation have had influence, but they cannot count as the main forces that led to wealth inequality falling dramatically over the past century. The real influences are instead the expansion from below of asset ownership among everyday citizens, constituted by the rise of homeownership and pension savings. This popular ownership movement was made possible by institutional changes, most important democracy, and followed suit by educational reforms and labour laws, and the technological advancements lifting everyone’s income. As a result, workers became more productive and better paid, which allowed them to get mortgages to purchase their own homes; homeownership rates soared in the West from the middle of the century. As standards of living improved, life spans increased so that people started saving for retirement, accumulating another important popular asset.

Today, the populations of Europe and the United States are substantially richer in terms of real purchasing-power wealth than ever before. We define wealth as the value of all assets, such as homes, bank deposits, stocks and pension funds, less all debts, mainly mortgages. When counting wealth among all adults, data show that its value has increased more than threefold since 1980, and nearly 10 times over the past century. Since much of this wealth growth has occurred in the types of assets that ordinary people hold – homes and pension savings – wealth has also become more equally distributed over time. Wealth inequality has decreased dramatically over the past century and, despite the recent years’ emergence of super-rich entrepreneurs, wealth concentration has remained at its historically low levels in Europe and has increased mainly in the US.

Among scholars in economics and economic history, a new narrative is just beginning to emerge, one that accentuates this massive rise of middle-class ownership and its implications for society’s total capital stock and its distribution. Capitalism, it seems, did not result in boundless inequality, even after the liberalisations of the 1980s and corporate growth in the globalised era. The key to progress, measured as a combination of wealth growth and falling or sustained inequality, has been political and institutional change that enabled citizens to become educated, better paid, and to amass wealth through housing and pension savings.

GOING WITH THE GRAIN:

The Theology of Fantasy (Timothy Lawrence, 9/01/24, Voegelin View)

Theology and fantasy are akin in that they are both imaginative projects. Theology concerns itself with a reality that is beyond the direct experience of our senses and thus must necessarily be known by the imagination – the same faculty that underwrites fantasy. The book centers around this trifecta: because theology and fantasy have imagination in common, they not only become relevant to each other, they can talk to one another, and the conversation can go both ways: theology can inform fantasy, and fantasy can inform theology. Fantasy can both “implicitly articulate what we believe” and “help us imagine a world that is still enchanted.”


Drawing from C.S. Lewis’ famous statement that the fantasy of George MacDonald “baptized” his imagination, a crucial step in his conversation to Christianity, Thrasher and Freeman suggest that the “baptism of the imagination” shapes what it is plausible or even possible to believe: “fantasy functions as a tool to shape the conditions for belief.” At the same time, fantasy is unavoidably shaped by the beliefs of those who make it. Each essay in the book concerns itself in some way with this back-and-forth dialogue between theology and fantasy, and in so doing demonstrates fantasy’s potential as a tool for serious theological work, rather than just a frivolous, escapist hobby.


Early on, the text sets forth a Christian understanding of fantasy, drawing largely from the work of J.R.R. Tolkien (who in turn drew from George MacDonald and Samuel Taylor Coleridge). According to the Christian mythopoetic theory of Tolkien, arguably the greatest Christian fantasist, fantasy has its roots in the theological and anthropological claim that humans are made in the image of God. As such, human fantasy is an echo of God’s own creative work. The human makers of fantasy are, in Tolkien’s terminology, “subcreators” whose make-believe worlds reflect the real world created by God. As Tolkien writes in On Fairy-Stories, “[W]e make in our measure and in our derivative mode, because we are made: and not only made, but made in the image and likeness of a Maker.”

NEOLIBERALISM OR BUST…LITERALLY:

Jamaica’s IMF Success Story (Catherine Osborn, Aug. 30th, 2024, Foreign Policy)

For the IMF, Jamaica is a success story—a country that carried out strict pro-market reforms and saw key social indicators improve along the way.

The IMF programs that led to Jamaica’s turnaround date back to 2013; continued buy-in from successive governments helped make them effective. Clarke has been the IMF’s main counterpart in Jamaica since 2016. He “stewarded his country’s economy to a stronger and more sustainable position,” Georgieva said on Monday.

Jamaica’s openness to reform came after a moment that Clarke has described as “rock bottom.” In 2012, the country’s national debt was ballooning as the government struggled to get a bailout. Jamaican economists and officials wracked their brains for possible ways to turn the country around.

They even called in Donald Harris, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’s Jamaican father, an economics professor emeritus of Stanford University, for policy planning help. He recommended steps that included instituting a corporate land registry and reducing taxes on certain businesses, according to the Washington Post. […]

Jamaica agreed to strict targets to reduce its deficit—and it stuck with them. In an unusual step, the country established a committee to monitor and report regularly on its economic performance that included representatives from private businesses and civil society.

That committee “reports publicly to the people, literally on the street corner, [at] the rum shop, on a quarterly basis; also on social media,” economist Marla Dukharan told The LatinNews Podcast. “Nobody else in the Caribbean holds itself to account publicly for what it says it’s going to do.”

In addition to reducing its national debt, Jamaica also gave its central bank more independence, overhauled its pension system, and privatized several government agencies, among other changes.

IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERSTATE DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES:

How to Best Prepare for the AI Jobs Apocalypse: Companies are turning to AI to boost profits – and it’s working (Luke Lango, 8/28/InvestorPlace)

This quarter, on average, companies across the S&P 500 reported nearly 10% earnings growth.

That is one of the best earnings growth rates the S&P 500 has reported since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in 2020.

At the same time, unemployment rates are rising sharply. Indeed, earlier this year, the national unemployment rate stood at 3.7%. Since then, it has spiked to 4.3%. Most folks expect it to keep rising.

In other words, right now… unemployment is rising… while corporate profits are also soaring.

That’s unusual. And it tells us that companies are using AI to replace human labor and productivity – and boost profits.

THE FIRST RULE OF TEXTUAL CONSTRUCTION:

Direct Taxes and the Founders’ Originalism (Robert G. Natelson, 8/29/24, Law & Liberty)

The Founding-era interpretive rule most relevant to the Constitution is this: When construing a document, the primary goal is to discern the intent of the makers. This rule applied to nearly all documents—real estate conveyances largely excepted. Of course, the identity of the “makers” varied according to the nature of the document. Of a will, the maker was the testator; of a contract, the contracting parties; of a statute, the legislators; and of a constitution, the ratifiers. As James Madison wrote, the sense of the legitimate Constitution is “the sense in which the Constitution was accepted and ratified by the nation.” One whose only role is as a drafter—whether the scrivener of a will, a lawyer in the legislative counsel’s office, or a constitutional framer—did not qualify as a maker.

Construing a document by discerning the intent of the makers is a very old practice. This antiquity may come as a surprise to those who think originalism has just “been around for several decades” or that it is merely a white supremacist scam. But it is incontrovertible.

it’s why the amendments can not be absolute: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

NEVERMIND HOW LITTLE WE SPEND AS A PERCENTAGE OF WAGES:

Food Profit Margins Shrink, But Harris Blames Them for Rising Grocery Bills (Joel Griffith, August 29, 2024, AIER )

What about industry-wide? Profit margins are shrinking as food manufacturing costs rose 28.4 percent since January 2020, exceeding the 26.3 percent retail price hikes on food items. Grocery store profit margins sank to 1.6 percent in 2023, the third consecutive year of decline after peaking at 3.0 percent in 2020.

In other words, grocer profit on $100 of sales is just $1.60. Profit margins contracted as overall food inflation totaled 20.6 percent in those three years. The biggest grocers have experienced this margin crunch. The Kroger Co. — the nation’s largest traditional supermarket — eked out an operating margin of 1.93 percent this past year, a margin lower now than it was pre-pandemic. These trends are the opposite of gouging.

History provides endless proof that prices set by governments under the market price results in shortages. Demand expands as supply shrinks. What good is a lower price if the shelves become empty?

CHASING FADS:

The Case for Hypochondria (Anna Altman, August 21, 2024, New Republic)

“Hypochondria has been called ‘the ancient malady,’” writes Caroline Crampton in her lyrical new book, A Body Made of Glass: A Cultural History of Hypochondria. “For as long as humans have had an understanding of health, there has been anxiety about it”—especially when that understanding is subject to superstition and misconception.

What happens with that worry—what behaviors develop, how much it hampers or deforms us, how it relates to our symptoms and our interpretation of them—is where things get tricky. If doctors tell us there is nothing wrong with us, but we persist in our anxiety, are we acting pathologically? Or are we experiencing something as yet unknown, at the edge of medical knowledge? Is hypochondria a somatic condition—a form of mental illness, an experience of the mind expressed in the body—or is it rooted in physical experience? Is it a diffuse anxiety about health, fear of contracting communicable disease, or the conviction that an illness is already present? Is it a form of obsessive compulsion? What is hypochondria’s relationship to diagnosed illness, anyway? Is it always an unhinged departure from what’s happening in the body, or is it sometimes a reasonable response to the uncertainty of corporeal experience?

It was bad enough when hypochondria was just a form of keeping up with the Joneses, but now that so many “conditions” have been valorized it’s also a way of making yourself seem special, without any risk of being judged weak.

THE CONTINENT VS THE ANGLOSPHERE:

When Keynes Killed Laissez-Faire (Samuel Gregg, 8/26/24, Law & Liberty)

As if, however, he recognizes the inescapability of some type of intellectual framework to order our decision-making about what governments should and should not do, Keynes distinguishes between “those services which are technically social from those which are technically individual.”

The “technically social,” Keynes says, are those “decisions which are made by no one if the State does not make them.” While that sounds like a public goods argument, Keynes’s “technically social” turns out to involve not only an incipit embrace of state macro-management of the economy but also full-blown corporatism.

Keynes the Corporatist

One of market liberalism’s failures, Keynes claimed in his lecture, was its inability to address problems generated by the prevalence of “risk, uncertainty, and ignorance” in the economy. These, he stated, produced “great inequalities of wealth” and “are also the cause of the unemployment of labour, or the disappointment of reasonable business expectations, and of the impairment of efficiency and production.”

Keynes deemed it possible to minimize these difficulties through “deliberate control of the currency and of credit by a central institution.” Another of Keynes’s “technically social” policies involved state agencies collecting and disseminating “on a great scale” all “data relating to the business situation, including the full publicity, by law if necessary, of all business facts which it is useful to know.”

How we distinguish useful from non-useful facts is not specified. But such information, Keynes insists, must be collated so that “society” can exercise “directive intelligence through some appropriate organ of action over many of the inner intricacies of private business.”

This, Keynes hastens to add, “would leave private initiative and enterprise unhindered.” Keynes, however, does not elucidate why this is the case—perhaps because he cannot. Indeed, one reason why Keynes underscores the need for a government agency to assemble business facts is his belief that:

some coordinated act of intelligent judgement is required as to the scale on which it is desirable that the community as a whole should save, the scale on which these savings should go abroad in the form of foreign investments, and whether the present organization of the investment market distributes savings along the most nationally productive channels. I do not think that these matters should be left entirely to the chances of private judgement and private profits, as they are at present.

In other words, Keynes does want to hinder the workings of private initiative and enterprise by means of “the community as a whole” making decisions about the aggregate distribution of savings between domestic and foreign investments.

Things get even more complicated once we discern what Keynes means by “society” and “the community.” In some cases, this functions as Keynesian shorthand for direct state intervention. In other instances, Keynes holds that “many big undertakings, particularly public utility enterprises and other business requiring a large fixed capital … need to be semi-socialized.”

By “semi-socialism,” Keynes has in mind something akin to “medieval conceptions of separate autonomies.” In general, he comments, we should “prefer semi-autonomous corporations to organs of the central government for which ministers of State are directly responsible.” As examples, Keynes suggests institutions like universities, the Bank of England, and railway companies, all of which operated at one or more removes from the state but whose legal status was not that of a strictly private association. “In Germany,” Keynes observes in a casual aside, “there are doubtless analogous instances.”

That reference indicates Keynes’s awareness of corporatism’s influence throughout the early-twentieth-century German-speaking world. Nor should we forget that corporatism had become official government policy in Italy following Mussolini’s seizure of power just two years before Keynes’s laissez-faire lecture. In short, corporatist ideas that posited the corralling of individuals into state-supervised groups and promoted the public-private amalgams envisaged by Keynes were “in the air”—and the Cambridge don had breathed deeply.

The Left is the Right.