Is the Slippery Slope ‘Fallacy’ Really a Fallacy? (CHRISTOPHER COYNE, 6/01/24, FEE)
[S]lippery slope arguments are not fallacious if you can show the initial step can improve the likelihood that the claimed effects will come about. The fallacy occurs when you claim there’s a slippery slope but then have no good reasons to expect the first step to increase the likelihood of the effects.
How much does the initial step need to increase the likelihood of claimed effects for the argument to not be fallacious? It’s unclear. Wikipedia argues the initial step should be “demonstrably likely” to result in the claimed effects, but I’d argue that if the claimed effects are bad enough, we can imagine even a slight increase in probability as being too slippery of a slope.