January 3, 2008

RUNNING THE TABLE:

As Campaign Season Begins, Only One Presidential Candidate is Viewed Favorably by Majority of Voters (Rasmussen Reports, January 02, 2008

After a year of campaigning with no votes actually being cast, only one candidate in either party is now viewed favorably by more than half the nation’s voters. Stunningly, especially given the status of his campaign six months ago, that candidate is John McCain. This is one reason why a recent article noted it is a good time to be John McCain.

The Arizona Senator is now viewed favorably by 53% of all voters (a total boosted by the fact that 56% of those not affiliated with the major parties have a positive opinion of him. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide have an unfavorable opinion of him.


If, as seems increasingly likely, Maverick has sewn things up by SC, without having to really tack politically or attack anyone, and the Democrats are undecided into the Spring, he could well be headed for 50-0.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 3, 2008 1:54 PM
Comments

what, another "50-0"? Why not bring in "60-40" while you are at it?

Posted by: sam at January 3, 2008 2:58 PM

Sam,

Though McCain hasn't won yet, reminding OJ of "60-40" on the eve of his likely being correct about McCain all along is beneath you.

Start prepping for the NYT/CBS October surprise stories now.

Posted by: Bruno at January 3, 2008 3:31 PM

Note McCain's numbers are due to high favorability with independents - i.e. those who don't play a big role in party specific voting.
The GOP voters are concerned that McCain is being heavily endorsed by lefty newspapers and is essentially bankrupt and won't be able to match Hillary's or Obama's war chest.

"Without having to tack politically or attack anyone" - you really aren't paying attention, are you?

Posted by: AWW at January 3, 2008 4:02 PM

AWW,

Ever hear of 527 Groups? You don't think McCain has enough connections with those who are willing to start one to go to bat for him (and against Hillary)?

OJ,

One of the things that the Intellectual Right has a major issue with right now is the obvious fact that the Republican Party, for better or worse, is George W Bush's party. Even today, you see folks willing to go to bat for the guy, and it shows when Bush wins on things like the Iraq surge.

Could the big reason for McCain's advance is the fact that he is the candidate most likely to mirror Dubya? Unlike, say, Huckabee or Romney, he hasn't tried to throw Bush under the bus this campaign season.

Posted by: Brad S at January 3, 2008 4:19 PM

Huckabee is the most "W"esque of them all...

Posted by: Benny at January 3, 2008 4:24 PM

indeed, they could get to 60 in the house, though the rotation mitigates against 60 in the senate this time. '04 was the year for that, but for staying in iraq.

Posted by: oj at January 3, 2008 5:37 PM

sam,

"60-40" and "50-0" were classic oldies. We should have a pool for what date Orrin breaks out the "Senators with long voting records can't win" motif when things turn sour for McCain.

Posted by: Matt Cohen at January 3, 2008 7:28 PM

oh, COME on. when's condelezza taking over?
Bro, your man-crush on the Maverick is worrisome......

Posted by: neil at January 3, 2008 8:44 PM

I'm liking this new neil guy.

Posted by: Benny at January 3, 2008 9:43 PM

Brad - yes I have heard of 527 groups but the Dems are much better at them than the GOP. And won't it look great for Mr campaign finance reform to be relying on groups he has denounced in the past?

I don't think McCain's "comeback" is tied to Bush. McCain has been strong on the war but has continued to poke conservatives in the eyes over immigration, taxes, and so forth. I still think McCain is benefitting from positive MSM coverage that will evaporate if he gets the GOP nod, leaving him portrayed as a cranky old man like Bob Dole for the general election.

And yes, OJ's man crush on McCain is startling.

Posted by: AWW at January 3, 2008 10:16 PM

He'll be the nominee this time because he was W's main rival in '00--it's his turn.

Posted by: oj at January 3, 2008 10:28 PM

Maverick wouldn't necessarily beat a governor--he'll be running against another senator.

Posted by: oj at January 3, 2008 10:30 PM

AWW,

McCain is a better campaigner asleep than Dole was wide awake. Further, running against the best natural campaigner since Reagan didn't help Dole any.

Also, The Media's hold is much weaker than it was in 1996, and it is only going to get weaker.

Everything that makes any of us worry about McCain is exactly what makes him the heavy favorite in the general. Now all we have to do is hope that he'll be more Fred Thompson than George W. Bush (on whom OJ has an even bigger man-crush) when in office.

There is no way Hillary beats McCain, and Obama would need to draw a royal flush to win.

In the wild card department - Bloomberg creates and easy win for the Republicans, and Lou Dobbs (don't laugh, he's thinking about it) wins it for the Dems. Both enter, and any bets are foolhardy.

Posted by: Bruno at January 4, 2008 11:04 AM
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