April 3, 2007
BY THAT DEFINITION OF NEAR NORMAL, HANNIBAL LECTER IS (via Bryan Francoeur):
'Very active' hurricane season predicted (AP, 4/03/07)
Forecaster William Gray said he expects a total of 17 named storms this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. [...]Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season.
None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast -- only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.
Posted by Orrin Judd at April 3, 2007 12:59 PM
A year ago these guys were "predicting" an absolute apocalpse for 2006. I don't think I'll panic just yet.
Posted by: curt at April 3, 2007 3:54 PMLast year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
In other words, Gray was wrong in his prediction for 2006.
Posted by: pchuck at April 3, 2007 4:36 PM"In other words, Gray was wrong in his prediction for 2006."
This makes him so reliable to repeat his warnings from last year. (sarcasm!)
Posted by: obc at April 3, 2007 7:47 PMHe wasn't just wrong, it was one of the mildest hurricane seasons since serious record keeping began.
In order to get to ten "storms' they counted at least two that would not have been noted before the 1990's.
Posted by: Earl Sutherland at April 3, 2007 7:50 PMDon't forget, though, Gray is a skeptic of global-warming.
Posted by: jgm at April 3, 2007 10:06 PM