DO YOU SUPPOSE REALISTS EVER READ THE NEWSPAPER? (via Luciferous):

A sorry foreign policy own goal (Zbigniew Brzezinski, 14oct05, The Australian)

ABOUT 60 years ago Arnold Toynbee concluded, in his monumental Study of History, that the ultimate cause of imperial collapse was "suicidal statecraft". Sadly for President George W. Bush's place in history and, much more important, ominously for America's future, that adroit phrase increasingly seems applicable to the policies pursued by the US since the cataclysm of September 11.

Though there have been some hints that the Bush administration may be beginning to reassess the goals, so far defined largely by slogans, of its unsuccessful military intervention in Iraq, Bush's recent speeches have been a throwback to the demagogic formulations he employed during the 2004 presidential campaign to justify a war that he started.

That war, advocated by a narrow circle of decision-makers for motives still not fully exposed, propagated publicly by rhetoric reliant on false assertions, has turned out to be much more costly in blood and money than anticipated. It has precipitated worldwide criticism. In the Middle East it has stamped the US as the imperialistic successor to Britain and as a partner of Israel in the military repression of the Arabs. Fair or not, that perception has become widespread throughout the world of Islam.

Now, however, more than a reformulation of US goals in Iraq is needed. The persistent reluctance of the administration to confront the political background of the terrorist menace has reinforced sympathy among Muslims for the terrorists.

'Chilling' Al Qaeda Memo Obtained (CBS News, Oct. 6, 2005)

The U.S. has obtained a 13-page letter written by Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, to Abu Musab al Zarqawi in Iraq, outlining with what one senior official calls "chilling clarity" al Qaeda's stretagy for Iraq and beyond, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin. [...]

In the letter, Zawahari complains to Zarqawi that some of his violent tactics are hurting public support for al Qaeda's cause, particularly the videotaped beheadings of hostages.

"We don't need this," the letter says. "Use a bullet instead."

Zawahiri also complains about Zarqawi's all-out war against the Shiites of Iraq, saying the Arab man in the street doesn't understand why suicide bombings are killing so many fellow Muslims.

The letter also indicates Zawahiri's life in hiding has left him cut off from news and financial support. He asks Zarqawi to provide him more information about operations in Iraq, saying he should know at least as much as the enemy knows, and he even asks Zarqawi to send money.

Support for Bin Laden, Violence Down Among Muslims, Poll Says (Robin Wright, 7/15/05, Washington Post)

Osama bin Laden's standing has dropped significantly in some pivotal Muslim countries, while support for suicide bombings and other acts of violence has "declined dramatically," according to a new survey released yesterday.

Predominantly Muslim populations in a sampling of six North African, Middle Eastern and Asian countries share to a "considerable degree" Western concerns about Islamic extremism, according to the poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, conducted by the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan and nonprofit organization.

"Most Muslim publics are expressing less support for terrorism than in the past. Confidence in Osama bin Laden has declined markedly in some countries, and fewer believe suicide bombings that target civilians are justified in the defense of Islam," the poll concluded.

Bali mob want Amrozi dead (Cameron Stewart and Sian Powell, October 13, 2005, The Australian)

A violent mob of 2000 angry protesters stormed Bali's Kerobokan jail, breaking down a wall outside the prison and demanding the execution of three of the Bali bombers.

Chanting "Kill Amrozi, kill Amrozi", the crowd removed part of the jail's main steel door before riot police stopped them from entering the prison where some of the Bali bombers are held. [...]

The protesters who tried to storm Kerobokan jail yesterday were seeking the three death-row ringleaders of the 2002 bombings - Amrozi bin Nurhasyin, his elder brother Mukhlas and Imam Samudra. But the three were moved for security reasons to Batu prison on Nusakambangan, an island south of Java, before yesterday's third anniversary of the attacks.

Iraqi Forces Show Signs Of Progress In Offensive (Jonathan Finer, September 22, 2005, Washington Post)

TALL AFAR, Iraq -- The Iraqi soldiers had already searched the house, according to a sticker plastered across its front gate.

But when their commanding general and a U.S. colonel arrived one afternoon last week to praise their performance and observe them in action, the troops wanted to give a demonstration. With theatrical intensity, they charged the two-story structure on the nearly deserted block, rifles at the ready, while other soldiers and two reporters watched from the street.

A fiery explosion -- some soldiers said they saw a man throw a grenade, others said the door was rigged to blow -- erupted from inside, followed by bursts of gunfire. The shouting soldiers stumbled out through a cloud of smoke, covered in blood. The rest of the platoon, which had lost a lieutenant in a grenade attack the day before, appeared dejected, some huddling around the wounded, others sitting with their heads in their hands.

What happened next, commanders here said, suggested significant progress toward the goal of shifting security functions to Iraqi forces so that the United States can begin withdrawing troops from Iraq. When the clashes grew intense, the Iraqi soldiers did not shrink, American officers said.

Jordan's king reaches out to Jews, hits radical Islam (Julia Duin, September 22, 2005, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)

Jordan's King Abdullah II told a gathering of American rabbis yesterday that Jews and Muslims are irrevocably "tied together by culture and history" and that he is willing to take radical measures to combat Muslim extremists.

"We face a common threat: extremist distortions of religion and the wanton acts of violence that derive therefrom," the king said. "Such abominations have already divided us from without for far too long."

Criticizing al Qaeda terrorists Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab Zarqawi for "abuses of our faith," the king, speaking at a heavily guarded lunch meeting at the Ritz-Carlton in Northwest, made clear he wishes to establish himself as the voice of moderate Islam.

Saudi king tiptoes toward more openness: Women line up for their first shot at elected post: chamber of commerce (Faiza Saleh Ambah, 10/06/05, The Christian Science Monitor)

Since the monarch succeeded his brother King Fahd, who passed away Aug. 1, he has issued a series of edicts that have made the popular king even more well-liked. He pardoned three democracy activists who were sentenced last year to prison terms of up to nine years. He raised government employee salaries by 15 percent for the first time in over 20 years, and earmarked more than $20 billion for housing loans, education, and welfare.

He also banned the kissing of his hand and the hands of other royals. It was a common practice for citizens to kiss their hands as a sign of respect and loyalty. But in his edict, Abdullah said that should be reserved only for one's parents.

The king established a reputation as a reformer shortly after taking over the country's day-to-day affairs when Fahd became ill in 1995. Abdullah became the first official to highlight the existence of poverty in the kingdom when he visited a poor neighborhood in the capital Riyadh several years ago, taking public a problem that had previously been taboo.

He was also the first member of the royal family to meet in front of television cameras with leaders of the persecuted Shiite and Sufi minorities. This was during the first part of a series of intra-Saudi dialogues he set up several years ago, despite the fact that the official Wahhabi ideology dominant in Saudi Arabia reviles those Muslim sects as quasi-heretic.

As a result of his reputation as a reformer, Abdullah has received a deluge of petitions in the past couple of months. A leading Islamic cleric, Salman al-Odah, wrote an open letter asking for more government accountability and public participation in the decision-making process. A woman posted a letter to the king entitled "I want to drive" on a popular website.

Delegates from the Shiite minority in the east and the marginalized Ismaili minority met with the king and asked for more representation in government and the country's consultative Shura council. (The Shura was formed in 1993. It now has 150 members appointed by the king every four years. It debates government, social, and economic policy, and advises the king, but has no legislative authority.)

Abdullah also met with two groups of women, including female activists.

Opposition to Iraqi constitution weakening (Nancy A. Youssef, Sep. 28, 2005, Knight Ridder Newspapers)

The two strongest opponents of Iraq's proposed new constitution said this week that they wouldn't campaign against it aggressively, making it likely that voters will approve the constitution in an Oct. 15 referendum. [...]

Rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's representatives said that while he's not thrilled about the constitution, he likely wouldn't encourage his followers to oppose it. [...]

The largest Sunni political group, the Iraqi Islamic Party, said that although it has encouraged its supporters to vote down the document, its efforts are focused on the December election for a new National Assembly.

"There are powers that will make sure this bad constitution passes," said Ala'a al-Maki, a party spokesman. "We are focusing more on ensuring the Sunnis participate in the next election."

Hamas chief hints at compromise (BEN LYNFIELD, 9/22/05, The Scotsman)

THE militant Islamic group Hamas could one day accept the existence of the state of Israel and negotiate, one of its political leaders said yesterday in an unprecedented sign of compromise.

For years, Hamas has criticised the ruling Fatah movement of the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, for allegedly selling out claims to all of historic Palestine by recognising Israel and confining the Palestinian struggle to the West Bank and Gaza Strip areas occupied in the 1967 Middle East war.

But Mohammed Ghazal, a respected figure within the movement from the West Bank city of Nablus, said yesterday: "The [Hamas] charter is not the Koran.

"Historically, we believe all of Palestine belongs to the Palestinians, but we're talking now about reality, about political solutions. The realities are different."

Afghans go to polls in historic vote (Farah Stockman, September 18, 2005, Boston Globe)

As polls opened today, an unprecedented election season drew to an end in Afghanistan. Millions were expected to vote for the lower house of the National Assembly, a 249-seat body roughly equivalent to the US House of Representatives, and a host of provincial councils.

The election brings much to celebrate less than four years after US forces and their allies launched a war that drove the fundamentalist Taliban regime from power and routed Al Qaeda from its terror training camps in the Afghan countryside. Sixty-eight seats are reserved for women and 10 for the nomadic Kuchi tribe, groups long denied a say here; and the assembly will provide a democratic check on the authority of President Hamid Karzai.

The vote is a logistical triumph, with specialized pictorial ballots for the largely illiterate population delivered by helicopter and donkey to the most remote areas.

Good news from Iraq (Brian P. Golden, September 16, 2005, Boston Globe)

Can constitutional democracy work here? Bernard Lewis, a premier historian of the Middle East, identifies the West as originator of harsh authoritarianism here, from Napoleon's dictatorship in Egypt in the 19th century, to the arrival of European-style fascism in the 20th century. Lewis insists that prior to European approaches the region produced far less menacing leaders. Lewis sees hope in history because these earlier leaders -- while not democrats -- governed through consultation and consensus among the major stakeholders in society. Looking at the political posters throughout Baghdad left over from the January election, I realize there may be a historical and cultural foundation that accepts democracy.

And look at what's happened in practice. January's election turnout was astounding; it will certainly be surpassed this fall. A recent poll in the Arabic newspaper Al Hayat reports that 88 percent of Iraqis plan to vote in the October referendum. The Kurds and Shi'ites, comprising 80 percent of the population, embrace the draft constitution. Even disgruntled Sunni Arab leaders are redoubling their efforts to register voters. Many Sunnis will vote in opposition, but opposition in a democracy isn't a bad thing; it's a victory.

And what does this mean for the insurgency? It's a disaster. The insurgency is despised because Iraqi civilians suffer most at their hands. Recently, even the spiritual leader of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the terrorist leader, demanded that attacks on civilians cease. And in the spring, Leslie Gelb of the nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations took a tour of Iraq and met with local leaders. He observed that while Iraqis are often frustrated with the Americans, they absolutely hate the insurgency and its murderous destruction. Despite threats, Iraqis will continue to defy the insurgency by voting.

Capable people comprise the constructive forces in Iraq. While Saddam Hussein's policies devastated education in the 1990s, older Iraqis grew up in one of the most literate countries in the Middle East. They can produce goods and services and run businesses.

Since the prewar period, there has been a 250 percent growth in the use of telephones. Electric power generation has grown above prewar levels, even in the midst of insurgent attacks, and after 40 years of complete neglect by Saddam. Every day schools are renovated (3,100 in the past year), and greater numbers of Iraqis receive medical treatment (healthcare spending is 30 times higher than in the prewar period).

The minister of defense is a former general who was once sentenced to death by Saddam. With a PhD in psychology, he now oversees an Iraqi Army of 88,000 soldiers. It is a brand new entity with flaws. But some units are assuming significant responsibilities, with the special forces regarded as exceedingly well-trained and capable. In the next six months, the Iraqi Army should be conducting a majority of the operations in Iraq. As the Iraqi Army matures, greater numbers of US soldiers will come home.

The future is uncertain, but there is concrete evidence of progress.

Voters reverse Islamists' rise in Pakistani politics (Ashraf Khan, 9/06/05, The Christian Science Monitor)

Voters in Pakistan have dealt a surprising blow to religious extremists, bucking the rise in recent years of radical Islam in politics here.

Countrywide elections for local governments, which were held on August 18 and 25 in over 100 districts, reversed the gains made by radical Islamists who came to power in two out of the country's four provinces in 2002. They had played a strong opposition role in the federal parliament and posed a formidable challenge to President Pervez Musharraf's vow to bring "enlightened moderation" to Pakistani society.

The absence of full elections at the federal level has enhanced the importance of Pakistan's local and city government as a political bellwether. Observers here point to a number of reasons for the poor showing for the religious parties, including internal divisions; changes to the ballot; as well as a cooling off of tensions caused by the government's reorientation following Sept. 11, 2001.

"It apparently seems that the establishment has laid their hands off the Islamists and radicals' influence has faded all over the country," says Jaffer Ahmed, chairman of the Pakistan Study Centre at the University of Karachi.

Pakistan and Israel deal Iran a blow (Safa Haeri , 9/03/05, Asia Times)

The meeting between Silvan Shalom of Israel and Khurseed Mahmoud Kasuri of Pakistan, described by many observers as historic, was the fruit of secret efforts by the pro-Islamic Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help diffuse Middle East tensions.

The three countries involved in the meeting are Washington's close strategic allies, while Turkey has deep military and security cooperation with Israel.

"It is no coincidence that this meeting took place here in Turkey, this great Muslim democracy, and Israel's long-standing friend," Shalom observed, adding, "Israel's relations with Turkey are proof that Israel can enjoy good and mutually beneficial relations with our Muslim neighbors."

"The meeting between Pakistan and Israel is a great blow to the policies of the Islamic republic based on an unabated antagonism with Israel and the 'Palestiniation' of its diplomacy which, in the past two decades, were the cause of many crises in Iran's foreign relations and increases in tensions with the United States, resulting in huge damage to our national interests," commented Iran Emrooz, a Persian-language Internet news website based in Germany.

So far, there has been no comment from Tehran, but a source close to the new government of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said, "They are shocked to the point of being choked off," referring to the Iranian leaders. [...]

The sole Muslim regime to have openly made the destruction of the Jewish state a pillar principle of its foreign policy, Iran is now more isolated than ever before in the region, in the Muslim community and in the world, as Israel has diplomatic relations with most Muslim nations in Central Asia. It is also recognized at different levels by most of the Persian Gulf sheikdoms and has a presence in Afghanistan and also in Iraq, thanks to the traditional ties it enjoys with the Kurds.

Senior clerics denounce faxed Zarqawi 'death list' (Mohammed Zaatari, July 28, 2005, Daily Star)

Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani and Higher Shiite Council Vice-President Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan spoke out in denunciation of a recent communique claiming Al-Qaeda is targeting prominent Lebanese Muslims. Qabbani and Qabalan said that the communique aimed to stir sectarian strife among Muslims in Lebanon by attacking religious figures known for their piety and care for Islamic and national interests.

The threats were made in a communique signed by "Qaidat al-Jihad Fi Bilad al-Sham" and faxed Tuesday to the Shiite community's religious center, known as Dar al-Ifta, in the port city of Tyre.

Qabbani's and Qabalan's word came in reply to the letter's announcement that Al-Qaeda's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi of Iraq has established a cell in Lebanon that is planning to assassinate nine Shiite leaders, including Speaker Nabih Berri and high-ranking Hizbullah leaders.

In Egypt, Many Question Whether Their Own Culture Is to Blame for Terror Attacks (Nadia Abou El-Magd, 7/27/05, Associated Press)

At one mosque in Cairo, some worshippers objected to prayers for the dead and missing after Saturday's bombings in Sharm el-Sheik because some victims were likely non-Muslims, said the editor of the government weekly Al-Musawwar.

Another columnist pointed to a weekly column in the government Al-Ahram daily by a religious scholar, Zaghloul al-Naggar, who explains science by using the Quran. After December's tsunami in the Indian Ocean, he went on Arab television and called the devastation God's revenge on Westerners engaged in vice.

The debate since Sharm has been a deepening of the soul-searching that has gone on across the Arab world in recent years over whether religious interpretations need reform in the face of terror attacks by Muslim radicals.

The debate began, hesitantly, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. And the voices have grown with each act of terrorism - particularly ones in the Middle East. A series of attacks in Saudi Arabia in 2003 forced that country to begin taking action against extremist thought.

The 2004 Madrid bombings increased calls for change among Muslims in Europe and the Mideast. After the July 7 suicide bombings in London, Britain's largest Sunni group issued a binding religious edict, known as a fatwa, condemning the attack.

Egypt has been hit this month by a double blow: the kidnapping and slaying of its top envoy in Iraq by Islamic militants and the bomb blasts that ripped through Sharm, killing as many as 88 people - the vast majority of them Egyptians.

What was unusual about the self-criticism after Sharm was that it came from government media - and even from within the Islamic clerical hierarchy picked by the government.

"There is no use denying. ... We incited the crime of Sharm el-Sheik," ran a bold red headline of a lead editorial Wednesday by Al-Musawwar's editor in chief, Abdel-Qader Shohaib.

The bombers "didn't just conjure up in our midst suddenly, they are a product of a society that produces extremist fossilized minds that are easy to be controlled," Shohaib wrote.

"They became extremists through continuous incitement for extremism which we have allowed to exist in our societies. Regrettably, the incitement is coming from mosque pulpits, newspapers, and TV screens, and radio microphones," which are all state-run, Shohaib said.

In Al-Ahram, columnist Ahmed Abdel Moeti Hegazi wrote: "This is not just deviation, it is a culture,"

Hegazi said he went to one mosque after the July 7 London bombings and the slaying of the Egyptian diplomat but the preacher made no mention of either attack. Instead, he denounced women wearing bathing suits.

Abdel Moeti Bayoumi, a theology professor at Al-Azhar University and a member of Al-Azhar's Center of Islamic Research, said change is needed. Al-Azhar, in Cairo, is one of the leading Sunni Muslim institutions in the world.

"Islamic preaching institutions are in a very acute need for shake-up," Bayoumi told The Associated Press. "Issuing statements and holding conferences to condemn terrorism is not what is needed. They are more like a cover-up of unresolved problems."

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 13, 2005 4:53 PM