November 1, 2002
AND MEN LOVED THE DARKNESS:
Smith write-in candidacy could cost Sununu Senate seat (HARRY R. WEBER, 11/01/02, Associated Press)In a University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV of 680 likely voters, Shaheen had 46 percent, Sununu 42 percent, Blevens 2 percent, 2 percent favored some other candidate and 7 percent were undecided. [...]The UNH poll was conducted Oct. 23 through Tuesday. It analyzed the Smith factor, concluding the write-in effort "continues to be a thorn in the side of the Sununu campaign." The poll found that 14 percent of Republicans who voted for Smith in the primary said they plan to vote for Shaheen in the general election. An earlier UNH poll had 26 percent of Smith primary voters supporting Shaheen.
"Another way Smith voters can hurt Sununu is by simply not voting in the Senate race," UNH pollster Andrew Smith said. "Three percent of Republicans who voted for Smith in the primary say they will skip the Senate election but vote in other races."
The UNH poll also found 2 percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for a candidate not listed on the ballot, which would include Sen. Smith.
"The impact of Smith's failure to support Sununu is at least 3 percent, almost the margin between the two candidates," the pollster said.
I like Bob Smith. I voted for him in the primary. Politics has very few truly honest moments, but he provided one of the best in recent years when he plunged a pair of scissors into the back of a doll's head on the Senate floor to demonstrate precisely how a partial-birth abortion is performed. It was one of those tableaux that drove the truth home so forcefully that people were genuinely horrified. Support for abortion after all depends on the fictions that it is used only by poor (preferably blacks) to kill a little cellular blob who would have a crappy life otherwise. Seeing a white, baby-looking thing mutilated was just too much for our societal hypocrisy to withstand.
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2002 8:05 PM
Although I'd like to see Shaheen elected, I don't believe the poll. People often respond to polls by saying what they'd like to do, not what they'll eventually end up doing at crunch time. Ms Shaheen's victory depends on miffed voters staying home, rather than on garnering votes from conservatives.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 1, 2002 7:37 PMEven more than that, it requires about 10% of the electorate to vote for Craig Benson (R) to replace her and then turn around and vote for her. That's hard to see happening, particularly since Republicans are going to sweep everything down ticket.
Posted by: oj at November 1, 2002 8:01 PMYes, thank you. Good observation -- let's hope Smith has an Alec Guiness moment a la Bridge Over the River Kwai.
Posted by: Blithering Idiot at November 1, 2002 9:55 PMSo OJ, have you called or e-mailed the good Senator Smith? I think it's going to take a fair number of NH republicans to make the point you made, up front and in person with him. He needs to come out Sunday or Monday in a televised press conference and say, "Please, people, if you care about me and all the things I've stood for, vote for Mr. Sununu."
Senator Smith needs a Dutch uncle right now.
He's in hiding. Even Karl Rove and W couldn't get him to come to the rally today. Seems safe to rule out that ambassadorship he wanted.
Posted by: oj at November 1, 2002 10:25 PM