November 1, 2002
D + 1:
(Larry J. Sabato's "Crystal Ball")
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2002 8:32 PM
I visit Mr. Sabato's site and like his analysis, but he's liberal and he seems to go with his heart in close cases. I think it will either be even, R+1, or R+2. I think he's wrong about Minnesota and New Hampshire at least.
That's what our hearts say, but our heads have to take note of history. Losing just one Senate seat and only a seat or two in the House would be a "victory" of historic proportions.
among alot of dissapointments Sununu will stand out if he loses, as it should have never been.
He's been outspent by her big time and the Dems have outspent the GOP by a wide margin. They thought once Sununu beat Smith he was home free.
You'll be able to see my own final predictions late Monday or early Tuesday at my site, along with links to many other predictions.
excuse my ignorance, but which is your site, I'll go right to it. Thanks.
I don't know how the GOP could have thought Sununu would have an easy race against a female Dem who had twice won statewide in NH. But if you tell me it's so . . .
Orrin, see Jacob Levy's blog
for an argument that since W didn't bring in any Republican freshman in 2000, there won't be any mid-term reaction in 2002. I don't know who has the better argument here but I don't think the history is absolutely compelling.
One would also assume that all the truly weak characters who were swept in by the '94 tide are now gone.
At the bottom of Mr. Miller's post is a "homepage" link. This goes to his site. You can get to mine by clicking on the "homepage" link in this comment.
Bush was in New Hampshire the other day to help out Sununu (seems they've realized their error in thinking Shaheen was a pushover), and according to the Corner, that might have been enough to put him over the top. That and I'm still not convinced that Mondale will hold. (Lileks fisked him pretty good and got mentioned for it on FoxNews) and if those two go the other way, that's a GOP Senate win. More likely though the Dems will hold their stolen Senate.
More interesting is that if Ventura makes good on his threat to appoint a non-Democrat an an Interim Senator and Talent beats Carnahan (he gets to take the seat immediately) then the GOP get the Current Senate back until the new one is seated (even if Chaffee pulls a Benedict Arnold/Jim Jeffords) That might be enough to get the Tax cut made permanent (and maybe add some new ones) get some much needed appropriations bills passed, and some much needed judges appointed. The Dems will cry foul, but they've done far worse to keep things this close.
I believe that Senate rules may require the Democrats to vote to reorganize the Senate before the GOP could take over. So what we're likely to get is a period of shutdown.