November 1, 2002

THE DEVIL YOU KNOW?:

Poll holds a warning for Davis (Margaret Talev, 11/01/02, Sacramento Bee)
An unusually high share of still-undecided voters in a Field Poll released Thursday suggests Davis' seven-point margin (41 percent to 34 percent), unchanged since July despite his $67 million war chest, could be undercut. [...]

Simon's campaign announced that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., popular with independent voters, will campaign on his behalf this weekend to try to win over some undecided voters.

"If (the poll) was at 41 percent to 20 percent, I'd still be encouraged at this time," said Simon strategist Ed Rollins. "At the end of the day, people don't want Gray Davis. They have several choices, but their only serious choice is Bill Simon, and I think that's why we're going to win this thing."


Here's the reason that incumbents at 40% are normally doomed: What are well over one-third of those Undecideds going to find out about Gray Davis this weekend that will make them commit to him when they haven't been able to for the past four years? If it were a real state and local tv would cover the campaign this would be a race that McCain could win for Simon just by giving him a stamp of approval. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2002 7:25 PM
Comments

this could be the biggest all-time upset in the history of politics, and some pols are predicting this as a potential upset.



Ok, I don't see it, but if we do not gain control of the Senate if we did get this seat I would sleep Tuesday night with a smile.



Tuesday, get here already!

Posted by: neil at November 1, 2002 9:56 PM

I've said all along Simon can't win, but incumbents at 40% are, by definition, endangered.

Posted by: oj at November 1, 2002 10:27 PM

This was one of the points I made some time ago, when you said Simon was fated to lose this heavily Democratic state. No poll I have seen in over a year given Davis above a 45% approval rating - and most of the time it is 40%. His disapproval rating is at least 40%. No aspect of his record as governor is successful.



A better campaigner than Simon might have sewn this up by now. The fact is, though, that Davis has run 25000 ads to Simon's 5000, and the race, and he hasn't sewn it up, either.

Posted by: Kevin Colwell at November 1, 2002 10:55 PM

The latest polls show his disapproval way higher than that even.



But it's still CA. Simon's campaign has been no better nor worse than most, but it's a 42% Republican state.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2002 4:51 AM
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