MAKE AMERICA VOTE DEMOCRAT AGAIN:

Let's start at the beginning. In 2016, 23 Republican House candidates won in districts that Trump lost. These Republicans didn't just barely outrun Trump; most of them out-performed their 2016 nominee by double digits -- by a 20 point margin, on average.   [...]

 In 2018, Democrats flipped all but two of those 23 Clinton/Republican districts. 

By 2020, these "swing districts" once again voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Biden won 21 of the 23 districts Clinton had carried in 2016, and House Democrats carried 15 of the 23. 

In 2020, Republicans found success with candidates who were female and/or people of color. These candidates didn't look, sound or act like Donald Trump or the stereotype of the GOP. Even so, almost all of the gains Republicans made that year were in districts that Trump had also carried. Only five challengers -- David Valadao (CA-21), Young Kim (CA-39), Michelle Steel (CA-48), Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27) and Beth Van Duyne (TX-24) -- won in CDs carried by Biden. Another four incumbents -- Mike Garcia (CA-25), Don Bacon (NE-02), John Katko (NY-24), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) -- won re-election in Biden-won districts. 

In 2022, Republicans narrowly won control of the House thanks to the fact that 18 Republicans won in districts Biden had carried in 2020. However, Republicans' failure to flip other high-profile seats that Biden narrowly carried two years earlier (like MI-08, MI-07, PA-07, CO-08, NM-02 and OH-13) cost them a more robust majority. 

To hold the House in 2024, Republicans first have to limit their losses in Biden-held districts. The most vulnerable Republicans are the five freshmen who outperformed Trump's 2020 showing in their districts by double digits: John Duarte (CA-13), George Santos (NY-03), Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04), Mike Lawler (NY-17) and Lori Chavez DeRemer (OR-05). For example, Biden won the Central Valley-based 13th District by 11 points. Freshman Rep. John Duarte carried it by just under one point. 

The next tier of vulnerable incumbents are the four freshman Republicans who outperformed Trump by five to nine points: Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07), Marc Molinaro (NY-19), Brandon Williams (NY-22) and Jen Kiggans (VA-02). 

Why did I single out the freshmen members? They are the least established, and as such are likely going to have the hardest time overcoming the pull of the national environment. 

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