July 28, 2022

NOT YOUR FATHER'S TALIBAN:

Is the ice beginning to thaw between US and Taliban? (Adam Weinstein, 7/27/22, Responsible Statecraft)

[A]n aid-dependent Afghanistan is not sustainable indefinitely and therefore steps must be taken to normalize the economy. On several occasions U.S. special representative for Afghanistan Thomas West has expressed an ultimate desire to return Afghanistan's frozen foreign exchange reserves to the country's central bank and rejected rumors that the funds would be used for aid. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has also issued seven general licenses which act as exemptions to U.S. sanctions on the Taliban. However, the chilling effect of these sanctions remains. The Taliban have also failed to take basic actions that would reassure the international community such as providing clear policies against terrorist financing and money laundering or removing sanctioned individuals from leadership positions at the central bank.

It is also necessary to understand that Afghanistan's economy would remain in dire straits even if sanctions were lifted tomorrow and the frozen foreign exchange reserves returned in full. This is because Afghanistan is a landlocked country with a majority rural population in which dried fruit, coal, and rugs make up the majority of exports. An artificial economy ballooned for two decades as a result of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan which fostered war-related industries such as bulk fuel transport and led to a parallel aid economy. Afghanistan's future growth is likely to remain slow at best as it now faces the constraints of its geography, infrastructure, and Taliban governance. 

Security also remains a significant concern for the United States and region. ISKP -- an offshoot of the Islamic State --continues to target Afghanistan's minorities, particularly the Hazara community. It also carries out targeted attacks on Taliban checkpoints. 

Posted by at July 28, 2022 5:56 AM

  

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