THERE IS NO LEBANON:

High abstentions among Sunnis - as well as a fragmentation of the Sunni vote as a result of Hariri turning his back on politics - could play into the hands of Hezbollah and its allies, who collectively won 71 of 128 seats when Lebanon last voted in 2018, according to some political experts.

"Because of what Saad Hariri did, Hezbollah now has two-thirds of the parliament within its sights," said Ibrahim al-Jawhari, a political analyst who served as an adviser to former prime minister Hariri, referring to the threshold that would shield the group and its allies from vetoes.

Hezbollah gains would reverberate far beyond this small country of about 7 million people. Israel, Lebanon's neighbour to the south, sees the group as a national security threat and has waged war against it in the past. Washington, London and much of Europe have classified it as a terrorist organization.

Such a political shift in the movement's favour would affirm Lebanon's position within the regional sphere of influence of Iran, which is waging a proxy battle with Sunni arch-rival Saudi Arabia across the Middle East and is at loggerheads with the United States. read more

Hezbollah is an organisation that occupies a unique place in Lebanese society. It commands a paramilitary wing that some experts estimate has a more potent arsenal than the national army, while also running hospitals and schools - earning it the frequent description of a "state within a state".

The group itself has said it expects the make-up of the new parliament to differ little from the outgoing one and that it neither wants nor expects a two-thirds majority. Its main Christian ally, for one, is widely expected to lose seats.

Yet any expanded grip on parliament could give Hezbollah more sway over presidential elections later this year and over economic reform bills required by the International Monetary Fund, and even allow for amendments to the constitution.

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