THANKS, VLAD!:

Putin's war has shaken a fundamental assumption of Vietnam's defense posture: that Russia would remain a reliable supplier of weapons systems it needs to deter Chinese aggression. It has done grave damage to what was a mutually convenient Russian relationship with Vietnam.

That is a tie that dates from Soviet-era aid to the Hanoi communist regime when it fought to secure Vietnam's independence and then to unify the country under Communist rule. Russia is still honored in Hanoi as the orchestrator of generous economic aid during the postwar decade when Vietnam struggled to build a Soviet-style command economy. Now fast forward a few decades: after successfully rebranding Vietnam's economy as "market-Socialist" but wary of Chinese ambitions, the nation's leaders chose to rely on Moscow for relatively inexpensive high-tech weapons systems, including frigates, fighter-bombers, attack submarines, and coastal defense missiles.

Xi Jinping's "China dream" has been Vietnam's nightmare, a threat that Hanoi has managed by building deterrent capability, practicing deference, and emphasizing mutual economic interest. It's an ancient strategy that has proven effective when China acts grandiose, and a set of policies that has enabled modern Vietnam to sustain a modestly constructive relationship with its giant neighbor.

Now, however, Hanoi's no longer assured of having in hand a suite of weapons systems built in Russia. For the foreseeable future, it will be almost impossible for Vietnam to buy arms from Moscow without triggering so-called 'secondary sanctions.' Hanoi seems to have figured that out. Chính reportedly agreed on April 30 with Fumio Kishida, Japan's new prime minister, that "in any region, changing the status quo by means of force is quite intolerable."

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