March 22, 2022

RECOGNIZE CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE, ARM THE INSURGENTS, CALL FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS:

Chechnya's losses in Ukraine may be leader Ramzan Kadyrov's undoing (Emma Graham-Harrison in Kyiv and Vera Miranova in Lviv, 22 Mar 2022, The Guardian)

Ukrainian intelligence services say the video was likely false bravado, filmed at home in Chechnya. Intelligence from phones and internet suggested he never crossed into Ukraine, and even Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to endorse the video, saying the Kremlin had "no data" on a possible trip into Ukraine.

But regardless of veracity, the footage was useful propaganda, signalling how closely and enthusiastically Kadyrov has associated himself with this war.

He appears to see the invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to boost both his power and his profile. Sending his men is a way for Kadyrov to prove his loyalty to the Russian leader whose patronage is the basis of his authority.

"There are many thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Chechens who hate him, who resent him and many families who are in a state of latent blood feud against him and his family, so Kadyrov understands if he wants to to survive he needs Russia and Vladimir Putin's backing," said Emil Solomon Aslan from the Institute of Political Studies at Charles University in Prague.

"That's why he wants to display absolute loyalty, show he is useful, can come and do very grandiose stuff." [...]

Many Chechens felt they were sent as cannon fodder to a badly planned war in the early days, when their heavy losses included a senior commander. Now they seem more focused on a media war, aimed at driving recruits and bolstering their leader.

At home, Kadyrov has been pushing hard for "volunteers", who are offered a sign-on bonus of about $2,300 (£1,750) and pay of $1,000 a month, with extra for successful operations, one recruiter said in text messages to a prospective young fighter.

They have approached groups including martial arts coaches asking young men to sign up, but Chechens are apparently mostly unmoved, aware how lethal the war has become.

"The footage and metadata show most [Chechen] forces are at least 20km [12 miles] away from the frontline, the only things they do is record videos to motivate people inside Chechnya and promote the warrior image of Kadyrov and his forces," Kvakhadze said.

"They are putting in a lot of effort to mobilise 'volunteers', offered very generous financial reward for participating, but Telegram and leaks suggest it is not successful."

Kadyrov also has one other reason to fight. Lined up with the Ukrainian forces are at least two brigades that include members of the Chechen diaspora who loathe him, and would like to see him overthrown. He needs to show enemies at home and abroad his strength, but he needs to keep his forces intact to prop up his brutal rule.

"Kadyrov seems to have been shocked by the scope of Ukrainian resistance, and it seems that dozens if not hundreds of his people have been killed. He has a lot of people, around 12,000, but to stay in power he needs those fighters," Aslan said.

"If they suffer too much serious damage in Ukraine, this could backfire for Kadyrov. This might explain some of the rumours he rolled back some of his forces.

Posted by at March 22, 2022 12:00 AM

  

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