November 12, 2021

WHOEVER RUNS IS GOING TO GET TO SERVE...:

In Senate Race, NHGOP Needs 'Outrun the Bear' Strategy (Michael Graham, 11/11/21, NH Journal)

The 2022 midterms were always going to be tough for Democrats. But unless there's some fundamental shift in American politics, the right track/wrong track and "generic ballot" numbers today are worse than they were for the "shellacking" of 2010.

Republicans didn't win 63 House seats that year because they had 63 Chris Sununus running flawless campaigns. They won because voters went to the polls and voted against every name with a "D" next to it they could find.

Once again, the disclaimer: A lot can happen in a year. There could be another COVID-level event. But assuming that what usually happens is what usually happens -- in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, and today -- Hassan's race is over now. She's already lost. She'll get the "Generic Democrat" level of votes which, in a Red Wave, won't be enough to win.

All Republicans have to do is nominate a competent candidate who's acceptable to the "I'm not voting Democrat in 2022" majority. They don't need a "Superstar" Sununu or "Rock Star" Reagan. This is a year when "Generic Republican" beats "Generic Democrat" every time.

So, who is that "Generic Republican?" There are plenty of them. One obvious choice is state Sen. Chuck Morse (R-Salem). If Hollywood made a movie called "Generic Republican," his face could be on the poster.

Then again, the "monied class" candidates like Rich Ashoo and Phil Taub are fairly typical Republicans, too.

Former U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta has some baggage, as does former U.S. Senate candidate Bill Binnie. But can they re-hab their images? It's definitely doable.

Matt Mowers could abandon his frontrunner status in the CD1 race, and he could probably be "GR" enough to win.

Two interesting names are the North Country's Jeff Cozzens and Londonderry's Kevin Smith. Fresh faces with compelling stories that starkly contrast with Hassan's D. C. hackery. (That's not a partisan comment. Right now, everyone in D.C. looks like a hack. That's part of Hassan's problem.)


...so pick a Republican, not a Trumpist.


Posted by at November 12, 2021 6:05 AM

  

« GOING TO RETALIATE BY BRINGING DAVID DUKE AND DONALD?: | Main | ROLL THE TUMBRILS...: »