February 2, 2016

HE'S NOT A REPUBLICAN:

Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan (NATE SILVER, 2/02/16, 538)


[T]he manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns out that few late-deciding voters went for him. According to entrance polls in Iowa, Trump won 39 percent of the vote among Iowans who decided on their candidate more than a month ago. But he took just 13 percent of voters who had decided in the last few days, with Rubio instead winning the plurality of those voters. [...]

Could it have been his lack of a ground game in Iowa? That's possible, too. If so, it has interesting implications for the rest of Trump's campaign. On the one hand, it's hard to build a field operation on short notice, so if Trump had a poor one in Iowa he may face similar challenges in the remaining 49 states. On the other hand, a field operation potentially matters less in primary states than in caucus states like Iowa.

But there's good reason to think that the ground game wasn't the only reason for Trump's defeat. Republican turnout in Iowa was extremely high by historical standards and beat most projections. Furthermore, Trump won the plurality of first-time caucus-goers.

There may have been a more basic reason for Trump's loss: The dude just ain't all that popular. Even among Republicans.

The final Des Moines Register poll before Monday's vote showed Trump with a favorability rating of only 50 percent favorable against an unfavorable rating of 47 percent among Republican voters. (By contrast, Cruz had a favorable rating of 65 percent, and Rubio was at 70 percent.) It's almost unprecedented for a candidate to win a caucus or a primary when he has break-even favorables within his own party.




MORE:

Trump Slams The Voters (Eric Kleefeld, February 2, 2016, National Memo)

I don't believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!

-- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 2, 2016



Posted by at February 2, 2016 12:44 PM

  

« KIND OF UNFAIR TO IL DUCE: | Main | AND SO WE'RE DOWN TO JEB OR JEB JUNIOR: »