February 2, 2016

AND SO WE'RE DOWN TO JEB OR JEB JUNIOR:

The Establishment Wins With Rubio (DANIEL MCCARTHY, February 2, 2016, American Conservative)

Politics is more about organization than raw enthusiasm. Donald Trump was beaten last night by Ted Cruz's organization in Iowa--and more significantly, they will both be beaten by Marco Rubio's organization nationally. That's because Rubio's organization is not only his campaign but the Republican establishment and conservative movement as well. He can even count on the organized power of the mainstream media aiding him, for while the old media may dislike Republicans in general, they particularly loathe right-wing populist Republicans like Cruz and Trump.

A divided right is the classic set-up for an establishment Republican's nomination. Cruz and Trump draw upon the same base of voters. Rubio, it's true, has establishment rivals to finish off in New Hampshire--Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich. But Rubio has been within a few points of Bush and Kasich in recent New Hampshire polls, and after Iowa it's not hard to imagine him gaining three or four points, probably more, over the next week.

Given a similar choice in 2000, the GOP went with the guy who had actually governed--W--instead of the sexy pick--Maverick.  In 2008, Democrats went with sexy over experienced. The results in terms of the respective presidencies were pretty predictable.  W was up and running immediately with the best cabinet since Washington's--heavy on governors and former chiefs of staff.  The UR stocked up on unthreatening lightweights and didn't hit his governing stride for 6 years.


Republicans being the grown-up party, history suggests Jeb over his inexperienced protege.





Posted by at February 2, 2016 12:59 PM

  

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