July 22, 2008
THE DYING BLUES AND THE THRIVING REDS:
Demographic Trends Could Make It Harder for Obama and Democrats (Michael Barone, 7/22/08, US News)
[U]nder the new electoral vote distribution, Bush's 286-to-252 electoral vote margin in 2004 becomes 294-to-244. Bush would have lost in 2004 if Ohio had not gone his way; under the projected post-2010 apportionment, Bush would have won 276-to-262 if Ohio had not gone his way. The demographic trends reflected in these projections would not prevent Barack Obama from being elected this year and re-elected in 2012, but they would make it marginally more difficult. Demography, modestly, favors the Republicans, and more than modestly over the long haul; see my May 2007 article in the Wall Street Journal.
Thus the permanent conservative majority. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 22, 2008 4:31 PM
It ain't the Blue states whose population is falling, its the heart of Red State America - states like Nebraska.
Posted by: andyet at July 23, 2008 5:08 PMMA is the only state to lose population recently.
Posted by: oj at July 23, 2008 7:22 PM
My thought was the Dems can hold onto the continually growing megacities/superregions (vegas/phx/la/sd), which will give them Congressional majorities forever and the Republicans will be sidelined as the minority, just trying to get pork for their rail depots, military bases, or power plants in timbuktu, nowhere.
Posted by: KRS at July 22, 2008 7:33 PM