July 22, 2008
A MONEY-MAKING PROPOSITION (via Glenn Dryfoos):
Cost of Loan Bailout, if Needed, Could Be $25 Billion (DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, 7/23/08, NY Times)
The proposed government rescue of the nation’s two mortgage finance giants will appear on the federal budget as a $25 billion cost to taxpayers, the independent Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday even though officials conceded that there was no way of really knowing what, if anything, a bailout would cost.The budget office said there was a better than even chance that the rescue package would not be needed before the end of 2009 and would not cost taxpayers any money. [...]
Under generally accepted accounting principles, Mr. Orszag said that the net worth of the mortgage giants at the end of the first quarter of 2008 was about $55 billion. He also said that the companies held more than $80 billion in capital at the end of March and for regulatory purposes were considered to be "adequately capitalized" by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
But on a fair value basis, the value of the mortgage companies’ assets exceeded their liabilities at the end of March by just $7 billion, a thin cushion considering liabilities at the time of $1.6 trillion, and an indication of why there have been numerous calls for the companies to raise additional capital.
All this fuss over such chump change? $25 billion hardly qualifies as a serious bookkeeping error in a $3 trillion budget.
Posted by Orrin Judd at July 22, 2008 4:05 PM
Bruno:
Do you know what the US GDP was in 1979, when we started down your bailout road? Know what it is today? On empirical evidence alone you'd have to say it works. Of course, you're talking about ideology, not reality.
Posted by: oj at July 22, 2008 5:13 PMOJ,
You make a fair point, but we cannot measure what the GDP would be if we had let Chrysler die. The carcass may have provided plants and labor that could have built the "Lexus" here, or given Delorean a shot that didn't require doing a coke deal.
We cannot measure how much healthier all the airlines would be if United had been forced into bankruptcy instead of their management taking bonuses for sloughing billions off on the taxpayer for union agreements they knew they couldn't keep.
We cannot measure how many banks across the US would have healthier real estate portfolios if they didn't have to march to Fannie and Freddie's underwriting tune.
You are correct that it is ideology to a degree. There is something unseemly about bailing out rich investors and CEOs, just as there something horribly wrong with Federal legislation negating millions of mortgage contracts.
...and we haven't even yet gotten to the "moral hazard" created by all this corruption and "rent-seeking."
You keep on thinking it will all be OK, and I'll continue to fret about things. Vive le difference
Posted by: Bruno at July 22, 2008 5:27 PMOJ, correlation ain't causation.
Posted by: PapayaSF at July 22, 2008 6:16 PMMurtha, Byrd, have at least earmarked (pocketed0 that much over the years.
Posted by: ic at July 22, 2008 6:26 PMCorrelation can be causation. It can't be prevention.
Posted by: oj at July 22, 2008 8:00 PMJapanese car manufacturers moved here.
Posted by: oj at July 22, 2008 8:04 PMBruno and OJ,
Who benefited more from the biggest "ownership society" fostering act of them all: the average citizen (and not-yet-legal immigrant family), or Union Pacific Railroad and other similar corporations? After all, you can't get more "moral hazard" than the United States' "police action" of killing and exiling Native Americans. Even though Union Pacific/Great Northern/et al got the best land within 2 miles either side of their lines, they didn't pay direct costs for this police force.
Furthermore, if you were to find a way to total up all the costs that land speculators paid for abandoned 160 acre plots, and adjusted the cost to today's dollars, you'd probably find out that farming/ranching in the entire states of North and South Dakota was a net money-loser. Yes, even though the land was yours, free-of-charge, if you "proved up" the homestead for 5 years, most poor immigrants ran from those plots after experiencing the first brutal Dakota winter.
Posted by: Brad S at July 22, 2008 8:30 PM2? Try 20 or more in some areas. (True, it was a checkerboard that had weirdness like BN owning St.Helens' summit when it erupted, but even there they got a bailout in the form of the landswap that established the Nat'l Monument in the devastation zone.)
And don't forget that most of those western ski towns (Aspen, Telluride, Sun Valley, etc.) were established on mining claims that were eventually "improved" to the point where the miners could take title and then later sell them to developers. (Even as late as the '80s "improvement" meant doing about $50 worth of work on your claim every year. A great way to get a vacation campsite for almost free.)
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at July 22, 2008 9:43 PMWe killed them and took the land for free and it worked out well here in NH.
Posted by: oj at July 22, 2008 11:17 PM
On top of this, FreddieMac has been making noises about NOT wanting to be "bailed out." Something about not wanting the additional regulations that would come with such a "bailout."
If this whole episode doesn't convince Congress that Credit Default Swaps (the reason behind this whole "bailout" talk in the first place) need to be brought under tight SEC and Fed regulation, then Congress is truly impotent.
Posted by: Brad S at July 22, 2008 4:27 PM