GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT AMERICAN VOTING PATTERNS...:

Believer in Chief: Faith and the presidency from JFK to George W. Bush:Randall Balmer's God in the White House: How Faith Shaped the Presidency from John F. Kennedy to George W. Bush a review of (Gary Scott Smith, July/August 2008, Books & Culture)

Intrigued and inspired by Carter's claim that he was a "born again" Christian, many evangelicals voted for Carter in 1976. Despite Carter's genuine piety and pursuit of numerous policies that reflected biblical priorities, most evangelicals deserted him in 1980. Initially galvanized by their desire to defend "the integrity of evangelical institutions against governmental interference," Balmer argues—rather than by opposition to abortion—evangelicals, who had generally been politically disengaged, created the Moral Majority and similar organizations in the late 1970s to support candidates and policies consistent with their values. Upset by Carter's refusal to try to outlaw abortion and his promotion of politically liberal policies, the Religious Right played an active role in helping elect Ronald Reagan, a divorced and remarried man who "had the weakest claim to evangelical faith" of the three major candidates. Preoccupied with the economy and the Soviets, Reagan neglected many key aspects of the Religious Right's agenda. Nevertheless, most evangelicals loyally supported Reagan in the 1984 election and throughout the turmoil and scandals of his second term.

In 1988, evangelicals helped Episcopalian George H. W. Bush defeat Michael Dukakis, "the first truly secular major-party candidate for president," but they embraced him less enthusiastically than Reagan. Although Bill Clinton professed to be a Christian, attended church regularly, and used evangelical rhetoric, his personal traits—especially his sexual infidelity—and liberal political policies irritated and offended many members of the Religious Right.

Evangelicals were attracted to George W. Bush's Christian testimony, "compassionate conservativism," and pledge to "restore decency and honor to the White House." The 2000 election demonstrated that candidates' faith had become important to many Americans, but voters were more concerned with the candidates' sincerity than with the particularities of their religious commitments. Aided by John Kerry's refusal to openly discuss his faith and his own frank professions of faith, Bush captured a large percentage of the votes of regular church attenders, enabling him to narrowly win reelection in 2004.

...the notion that JFK won despite rather than because people thought he'd follow Christian moral teachings appears unsustainable.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 8, 2008 7:42 PM