May 6, 2008


Popular Mechanics (RHODES COOK, 5/05/08, NY Times)

[T]he total turnout for the seven remaining Democratic primary states could well approach five million. That means that Mrs. Clinton would need to win the overall vote by a margin of at least 10 percentage points to overcome Mr. Obama’s lead.

To do that, Mrs. Clinton needs to fulfill her second requirement for victory by running up her winning margins in Kentucky and West Virginia. Both have large numbers of the rural and blue-collar voters that she tapped in primaries in nearby Ohio and Pennsylvania. Kentucky has a pair of sizable cities (Louisville and Lexington) that should yield votes for Mr. Obama. Still, a 65 percent victory statewide in Kentucky for Mrs. Clinton would not be surprising, which might trim close to 200,000 votes from Mr. Obama’s lead.

Her advantage in West Virginia could be even bigger. The state gave Bill Clinton a higher share of the Democratic primary vote (74 percent) than any other state when he ran for president in 1992. By matching his share, she could post a net gain in excess of 200,000 votes.

The other realistic place for her to play offense is Indiana. In every Democratic presidential primary since 1972, the candidate that won Ohio has also won Indiana. Another 10 point victory in this corner of the Midwest would net her 100,000 votes or so.

The vote margins in these three states could narrowly give Mrs. Clinton the lead in the popular vote. But that would be just half the battle.

Closing the deal means she has to pull off her third requirement for victory by playing tough defense in the four other states.

North Carolina and the three remaining primaries west of the Mississippi (Montana, Oregon and South Dakota) all lie in territory that has favored Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton’s ability to run about even in these states, or possibly score an upset or two, depends on a succession of strong finishes like the ones she pulled off in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The great thing is that Ms Clinton can't win but she, the Right and the media have a shared interest in pretending she can. It makes for the oddest bedfellows since Ishmael shacked up with Queequeg.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 6, 2008 8:50 AM

Or since Rowdy Roddy Piper fought aliens with Keith David.
Sorry, I was watching "They Live" last night and now I've got it on the brain.

Posted by: Bryan at May 6, 2008 9:32 AM
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