May 6, 2008

BONSAI!!!!!!!:

A pivotal day for the Democrats?: As Indiana and North Carolina head to the polls, a couple of predictions: The delegate endgame will change -- and nobody can be sure what's next. (Walter Shapiro, May. 06, 2008, Salon)

Another factor that the hit-the-road-Hillary fanciers forget is that the magic number of 2,025 delegates for a majority was not handed down on stone tablets to the Democratic National Committee. That number was derived after eliminating the 366 delegates from Michigan and Florida because those states held January primaries in defiance of DNC rules on scheduling. But there is an appeal pending before the DNC's Rules and Bylaw Committee to restore the 51 superdelegates from Michigan and Florida. If that is approved -- even if there is no other resolution to the Michigan and Florida fracas -- the number for nomination would jump to 2,051.

The point here is neither to reward Michigan and Florida for jumping the queue by holding outlaw primaries nor to accept the Clinton campaign's absurd claims that the results from these two states should be ratified without question. But it defies reason (of course, we are talking about the Democrats) that there will not be some negotiated settlement to the Florida and Michigan mess, which would raise the number of delegates required for a majority. So here is a surefire prediction: The number flashing on the TV screens when the nominee goes over the top at the Denver convention will not be 2,025.

But there is a larger question: Would the Democratic Party nominate Barack Obama if most delegates to the convention concluded that he would be a significantly weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton in the general election? While Clinton partisans may parse poll data to reach that conclusion, there is no current evidence that would convince a neutral Democrat that Obama is a synonym for Mondale. But what if Clinton roared through the remaining dribs-and-drabs on the primary calendar? What if the conviction began to set in among Democrats that Obama cannot win in November, even as he was on the verge of wrapping up the nomination based mostly on delegates that he acquired in January and February?

The answer to these what-if questions may well be "Obama forever -- and damn the consequences."


Maverick has survived flaming carrier decks before.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 6, 2008 8:59 AM
Comments

Why are you yelling, "A JAPANESE POTTED PLANT!, DWARFED AND TRAINED BY PRUNING TO AN ARTISTIC SHAPE!!!!!!" ?

Posted by: Andrew X at May 6, 2008 10:23 AM

Editorial comment on the (political) stature of the Democratic contendors by OJ. Funny one too...

Posted by: TimF at May 6, 2008 11:16 AM

"A JAPANESE POTTED PLANT!" sounds the same in English as "Live 10 thousand years", a salutation to the Son of Heaven, i.e. the Emperor. But I should say in this case, it is more appropriate to mean a plant "DWARFED AND TRAINED BY PRUNING TO AN ARTISTIC SHAPE!!!!!!".

"Michigan and Florida for jumping the queue by holding outlaw primaries..."

Translation: Michigan and Florida peasants did not defer to their betters, thus are punished by disenfranchisement. In the old days, the betters would send in an army and hack some heads off. We have come a long way.

Posted by: ic at May 6, 2008 12:33 PM

And as Americans we have no 'betters', yet still these people keep coming up in boots and spurs insisting that we put these saddles on...

Posted by: Mikey at May 6, 2008 5:09 PM
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