THE BLIND MAN'S STILL BLUFFING:

Resurgent Russia? A Still-Faltering Military: Reports of its return have been greatly exaggerated (Zoltan Barany, February/March 2008, Policy Review)

In the past few years Moscow’s increasingly assertive foreign policy posture has been underscored by signs of improvement in the military realm. Several pundits have argued that the Russian army is “back,” that it is once again an effective force, having endured humiliating conditions through much of the post-Soviet period. Some recent developments have undoubtedly supported this contention. After all, in 2007 alone Russia resumed regular long-range bomber missions after a 16-year hiatus, conducted a military exercise with the People’s Republic of China and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (a.k.a. “The Dictators’ Club”) that included 6,500 troops and over 100 aircraft, increased defense spending by more than 30 percent, announced a new rearmament program, and began planning the reclamation of the old Soviet naval base at Tartus, Syria in order to reestablish a Mediterranean naval presence.

These events are in concert with the longstanding Soviet-Russian tradition of emphasizing the armed forces as the state ’s most important foreign policy instrument while designating lesser roles to diplomatic, economic, and other means. Still, those familiar with the magnitude of the Russian defense establishment ’s post-Cold War privations cannot but wonder whether it could have recovered quite so quickly. To be sure, the military ’s situation has improved in some respects in the past several years. At the same time, reversing the army ’s decline and regaining its former might will take many years, and the Russian armed forces will not be able to challenge America ’s military supremacy for decades. Indeed, my main argument here is that reports of the Russian army ’s imminent resurgence, like those of Mark Twain’s death nearly a century ago, have been greatly exaggerated.

The hysteria over Russia's "resurgence" is like worrying that Saddam is reconstituting his nuclear warheads. The threat was never real.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 1, 2008 1:51 PM