December 11, 2007
Santana talks moving along (Buster Olney, December 11, 2007, ESPN)
Wrote here last Friday that the folks in position to have insight into the Johan Santana talks strongly believe that the Twins and Red Sox will eventually work out a deal, and as Joe Christensen writes this morning, the two sides continue to talk. The Twins seem to prefer a package built around center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, rather than Jon Lester.
It goes without saying that the Red Sox rotation could be extraordinary this year, with this alignment:
RHP Josh Beckett
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Curt Schilling
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka
RHP Tim Wakefield/Clay Buchholz
Boston would be an easy pick to repeat as AL East champion (and being an easy pick never guarantees actual success).
Lester would win the #5 job, which is why they should send Buchholz instead of Ellsbury.
Posted by Orrin Judd at December 11, 2007 5:55 PM
The Twins are fools if they essentially trade Santana for Ellsbury.
The Sawx are very smart though for including Ellsbury on the no-go list with Laptop. That, combined with a September where he far outperformed his minor league numbers, has vaulted him into top prospect status in the minds of some.
This is clearly a "don't throw me into the briar patch" type move by the Sawx though.
Frankly, the Sawx would be best served by trading Ellsbury now, when his value is higher than it will ever be. Chances are slim he turns into a better player than Coco Chanel, which says a lot about the hype around him.
Of course, they'll have to explain to Sawx nation why they kept the black guy and traded the great white hope. Riots in the Fens, crosses burning everywhere.
It's the difference between Theo and Cashman. Theo knows that simply by virtue of the fan base and media saturation the prospects get hyped beyond their ability. Cashman believes the hype.
No, not quite.
The equivalent would be the Yankees hyping Gardner, who's basically Ellsbury with slightly less power. Hasn't happened. (Mostly b/c they don't need to b/c in Ajax they have a cf prospect who's young for his level and can actually slug over .400, well over.)
The prospects they have hyped, Phil, Joba, etc., have put up ridiculous numbers, not a.740 ops in AAA as a 23 year old, or Lester's 1.4 whip, or whatever it was, during his minor league career, and his 1.6 whip in the majors.
The Sawx basically have one prospect, Laptop, who's in the league of Joba/Hughes, and even he is the product of one breakout season.
And notice the Yanks are willing to part with Kennedy, who's a much better prospect than Lester, though the Sawx hype Lester like he's the second coming of Steve Carlton.
The Yanks have been fairly realistic about their boys this go around. Don't get me wrong, I applaud the Sawx for the amount of hype they've generated about a fairly weak group of prospects. It worked for the Yanks in the past, in the days of Clausen et al. I hope though that their smart enough to know that the likes of Ellsbury and Lester aren't going ever going to be winning world championships for them.
Ellsbury and Melky are the comparables. As are Kennedy and Masterson and Joba and Manny. Hughes is better than Buchholz. Lester is the best of the lot.