THE SOVIET ECONOMY WILL PASS OURS IN 1985... (via Patrick H):

Rising powers have the US in their sights (Dilip Hiro, Asia Times)

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States stood tall - militarily invincible, economically unrivaled, diplomatically uncontestable. and the dominating force on information channels worldwide. The next century was to be the true "American century", with the rest of the world molding itself in the image of the sole superpower.

Yet with not even a decade of this century behind us, we are already witnessing the rise of a multipolar world in which new powers are challenging different aspects of US supremacy - Russia and China in the forefront, with regional powers Venezuela and Iran forming the second rank. These emergent powers are primed to erode US hegemony, not confront it, singly or jointly.

Iran has a fertility rate of 1.7%, net migration of -4.29/1000, male life expectancy of 69.12 years, per capita GDP of $8,700 and several thriving separatist movements, not least among the 7% of the population who are Kurds.

Venezuela has just 26 million people, a net migration rate of -1.28/1,000, and a per capita GDP of $7,2000.

China has a net migration rate of -0.39/1,000, fertility rate of 1.75, 30 million excess males, a GDP per capita of $7,700, and several regions it has no prayer of holding onto including Tibet, Uighurstan, Hong Kong, etc..

Russia has a negative population growth rate at -0.484%, net migration at .28/1,000, fertility rate of 1.39, male life expectancy of 59.12 years, per capita GDP of $12,200, and various separatist movements, like the Chechens.

America has net migration of 3.05/1000, fertility rate of 2.09, life expectancy of 78, and a GDP per capita of $44,000.

It was always an asinine notion that the Nazis or the Communists posed a serious threat to the United States--to posit that this motley crew of dying nations are emerging challengers is hysterical.

It's the darndest thing--when we cook up a threat from some enemy we want to dispose of--be it Imperial Japan or Baathist Iraq--the regimes days are numbered. And when folks like the CIA or Mr. Hiro misjudge a threat--be it from the Soviets or Hugo--they don't last much longer. At some point you have to conclude that not only do we not have any peers but that there's nothing worse for a dictator's future than to be mistakenly perceived as one.

MORE:
In Iran, living in the moment: Vacationing families put a dent in their gas rations, raising fears of chaos when the initial six-month allotments are depleted (Kim Murphy, 8/23/07, Los Angeles Times)

Since June, Iran has rationed gasoline to about 26 gallons a month for most private cars, leaving many families doubtful about their summer vacation plans and raising fears of pandemonium when school resumes in September and burned-through ration allocations run dry.

The rationing program is designed to stem the nation's crippling reliance on imported gasoline, in a country that has one of the world's largest proven oil reserves. The dependence on foreign gasoline, a result of the country's shortage in refinery capacity, is costing Iran more than $5 billion a year and rendering the nation vulnerable to the possibility of a new round of international sanctions that could cut off the fuel shipments.

The rationing has become the eventual focus of most conversations in Tehran, and the catalyst for a robust black market in fuel as holiday-makers seek ways to get to the shops and the seashores.

Although bookings have been down 25% to 30% here in the popular Caspian beach resorts since the rationing took effect, the crowd for the three-day holiday weekend this month was as big as ever. Hotels were turning away disappointed carloads of beachgoers well into the night. In restaurants offering plates of grilled sturgeon, Caspian trout heaped with coriander and saffron-sprinkled rice, diners were elbow-to-elbow.

Morteza Zarif Ali Hosseini, a printmaker, was camping in a dome tent along the beach with his wife, child and brother's family (they had crammed into one car for the 3 1/2 -hour journey from Tehran). He said he saved up his gas allocations for the long-planned trip.

"Praise God, once a week we use the car now," he said.

Iranian officials announced that average gasoline consumption had declined by more than 20% shortly after it began the rationing in late June. The rationing program is an effort to reduce the country's vulnerability in the event the United Nations elects to target gasoline exports to Iran when it reviews the nation's nuclear program.

"It's not just a matter of U.N. sanctions. Just to give you an idea, since 10 years ago, we have tripled the amount of gasoline we import. And if we don't stop it, we have no idea what this will lead to," said Mohammed Sadegh Jenan Sefat, an economics writer for the Tehran-based publication Kargozaran, which is allied with the party of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

What has many economists and officials worried, though, is that the "smart cards" issued in June with six months' worth of gasoline allocations may already be running close to empty for many families.

Considering that the debut of rationing sparked riots at a dozen gas stations, banks and department stores, officials here are worried -- so much so that parliament is seriously considering upping the allocations.

"To imagine what would happen if the government says, 'OK, this is the ration -- no more allocations.' We cannot imagine this scenario," Sefat said.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 23, 2007 12:00 AM