ONE OF THESE THINGS IS NOT LIKE THE OTHERS:

THE FRESHMAN FIFTEEN: Which House Members Will Carry their Weight in '08? (Isaac Wood and Larry J. Sabato, 6/07/07, U.Va. Center for Politics)

This month, the Crystal Ball has compiled an endangered species list of sorts: members of the House of Representatives who have their work cut out for them if they seek political survival beyond 2008. At this point, we can sort the vulnerable into two stacks: the "Freshman Fifteen" and the "Scandalous Six." We'll keep you in suspense by saving the latter for next week.

First up, we're taking a look at congressional newcomers (One Republican and 14 Democrats) who were freshly elected to the House last November and have yet to entrench themselves fully in Washington. Several of them--such as Jerry McNerney of California and Tim Mahoney of Florida--won in districts that would have easily stayed in GOP hands save for the fact that scandal-plagued incumbents mortally wounded themselves. Those unique circumstances won't be present in 2008, so these kinds of districts are natural pickup opportunities for the other side.

The strong anti-GOP waves we witnessed in 2006 may be somewhat tempered by the time of the next slate of elections. So it follows that several freshman Democrats in districts that are essentially toss-ups--or even normally favor Republicans--could be in grave danger if political winds shift. Still, keep this in mind: in 1976, just two of the 76 Democratic freshmen (3 percent) were defeated in the first election after the anti-Nixon Democratic wave in 1974. In 1996, two years after the Republican wave of 1994, 12 of the 73 Republican freshmen (16 percent) when down in defeat. In 2008, there will be a more modest number of Democratic freshmen standing for reelection (42 in total), but how many, if any, will they lose once the final votes are counted next November? Will it be one or two seats (á la 1976), six or seven seats (á la 1996) or some larger total unmatched in recent history?

Note what's distinctive about 1976 and 1996? Democrats nominated two evangelical white Southern governors. With either a woman, a black, or both at the top of the ticket, Democrats could easily get wiped out in such seats.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 9, 2007 8:09 AM