November 8, 2005

THE CAPTAIN BOARDS A SINKING SHIP:

White House Gambles That Boosting Kilgore Will Pay Off for Bush (Peter Baker, November 8, 2005, Washington Post)

In jumping into the Virginia governor's race just 10 hours before polling booths open, President Bush put his credibility on the line last night and ensured that the results will be interpreted as a referendum on his troubled presidency. But the White House is gambling that after weeks of political tribulations, Bush has little more to lose.

Bush's election-eve foray to Richmond to rally behind Republican Jerry W. Kilgore inserted him into the hottest election of the off-year cycle and will test his ability to energize his party's base voters, according to strategists from both parties. Even in a traditionally Republican-leaning state such as Virginia, polls register disenchantment with Bush's leadership, and Kilgore has had trouble running against national headwinds.


Mr. Bush has made building the Party's majority his chief goal all along and has not been the least bit risk-averse in the effort, as recall the 2002 mid-term. Accordingly, this seems more likely a case of Mr. Kilgore being desparate enough to invite the President in. That only makes it all the more selfless.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 8, 2005 7:03 PM
Comments

Some have opined that Bush's polls must show Kilgore leading for him to jump into this situation. The MSM have already termed these elections as a referendum on Bush (but of course if the GOP does well it will have nothing to do with Bush). I don't think Bush is as desperate as the MSM portrays but a few GOP wins tonight wouldn't hurt.

Posted by: AWW at November 8, 2005 9:12 PM

Didn't help.

Posted by: Sandy P at November 8, 2005 9:39 PM

Mr. Kilgore has indeed lost to the Democrat. But as of 10:20pm EST, the GOP had won the Lt. Governorship and the Republican was eeking out a victory in the attorney general race. That one may involve a recount. So the GOP maintains its majorities in the legislature and takes 2/3 statewide offices.

As a side note. While the president's approval numbers nationally have been low, his approval ratings in virginia are still in the mid to upper 50s.

Posted by: mc at November 8, 2005 10:26 PM

Although the last Democrat to carry Virginia was LBJ, five of the last seven Virginia governors (Kaine included) have been Democrats. Virginia tends to elect a governor opposite of the party that holds the White House.

Posted by: George B at November 9, 2005 9:42 AM

The take on it from the Republican side it that Kaine rode the coattails of a popular incumbent governor into office, despite being more liberal than Warner. That's probably true in part, but you also have to factor in both Kilgore's failure to really present an active vision for what he wanted to do as governor (he seemed to be running a campaign mainly designed not to offend the swing counties of suburban Washington which also served to not get anyone really excited about his effort), and Bush's problems over the past few months, though gas prices back below the $2 mark would probably have eliminated that factor.

Since Virginia governors are only one-term candidates, if I were the GOP I'd be a little nervous, but not in panic mode over this. If Kaine turns out to be everything his critics say he is, the backlash will start well before next year's midterm election (that also goes for Corzine in New Jersey, and whomever he nominates to replace him for Senate in the 2006 race there).

Posted by: John at November 9, 2005 1:30 PM

All I know about either and the race was a story on NPR last week about how Kaine plays up his religion in every speech and Kilgore rarely talks about his. They interviewed both and not only did Mr. Kaine sound serious and soulful but Mr. Kilgore sounded, not to put it too finely, effeminate.

Posted by: oj at November 9, 2005 1:43 PM
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