THE UNABOMBER WAS MORE REALISTIC:

In Al Qaeda letter, a strategic blueprint: The long missive to Iraq's top insurgent outlines the group's political goals, though some experts doubt its authenticity. (Peter Grier, 10/17/05, The Christian Science Monitor)

The word that best describes the mood of the letter's writer might be "beleaguered." He laments the recent loss of a wife, son, and daughter, for one thing. He hints at money problems and asks for cash, for another. He complains that not all of his recent works have been published, and that he's lost the manuscript of his last book. He notes, parenthetically, that American Intelligence has apparently acquired his computer.

Some experts suspect that the letter is a fake, and that the CIA - not Al Qaeda bigwig Ayman al-Zawahiri - may be its true author. It was US Intelligence that made public the 13-page missive, after all.

Others call it a fascinating document, and say much of it rings true. Take the letter's description of Al Qaeda's ultimate victory, in which the US is expelled from Iraq, Israel is conquered, and all Muslims - including Shiites - are converted to an extremist version of Sunni Puritianism. That's long been the terror group's bleak vision for the future. [...]

Mr. Zawahiri...outlines what he calls Al Qaeda's incremental goals for the future. First, expel the Americans from Iraq. Second, establish an Islamic authority, or emirate, over as much Iraqi territory as possible - "i.e. in Sunni areas" - to fill the vacuum left by the departing US power.

The third stage involves extending this wave of jihad to the "secular countries neighboring Iraq." Then, according to the letter, comes a final confrontation with Israel, "because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity," and establishment of a regional caliphate in which other sects of Islam convert to Al Qaeda principles.

Zarqawi and his jihadist forces need to be ready to implement this strategy because "things may develop faster than we imagine," says Zawahiri in the letter, citing the US experience in Vietnam.

Then the admonitions begin. Beheadings of hostages, and suicide attacks against ordinary Shiites, are not helping the movement, Zawahiri warns. The Muslim masses are put off by such slaughter. Even the elite of the mujahadeen may question the correctness of picking a fight with the Shiites "at this time."

The bottom line is that popular support may be the difference between victory or defeat. "We are in a battle, and ... more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media," says the letter.

Forget the impossibility of their ideology ever becoming popular even within Sunni Islam, note that the earlier stages of their victory require both the Shi'ites, the Israelis, and the Americans to all site back and watch. Our biggest advantage is that they are, quite simply, lunatics.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 16, 2005 7:17 PM