October 3, 2005
CLINTON'S KRISTOL BALL:
Finally, the Democrats have a plan (Jim Lobe, 10/04/05, Asia Times)
In an apparent bid to unify fractious Democrats behind a consensus plan on Iraq, a think tank with strong links to the administration of former president Bill Clinton has called for a two-year "strategic redeployment" of US forces that would ensure their almost total withdrawal by January 2008.The plan, released by the Center for American Progress (CAP), also calls for Washington to begin withdrawing troops in January 2006 and completely withdraw from Iraq's urban areas at the outset, leaving security in the hands of Iraqi police, troops and militias.
By the end of 2006, according to the plan, 80,000 of about 150,000 US troops currently deployed in Iraq would be withdrawn from the country, with all 46,000 National Guard and Reserve units demobilized and returned to the US.
The other 34,000 troops would be redeployed - 14,000 to Kuwait and in a Marine expeditionary force located off-shore in the Gulf, prepared to strike at specific terrorist targets; 18,000 to Afghanistan to fight a resurgent Taliban insurgency; and 1,000 each to the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia as part of the broader "war on terror", according to the 10-page document titled Strategic Redeployment: A Progressive Plan for Iraq and the Struggle Against Violent Extremists[, co-authored by CAP associates Lawrence Korb and Brian Katulis.]
Keep the troops there in significant numbers for three more years? Boost troop levels in Afghanistan? Establish permanent bases all over the region? These are the progressives? How do they differ from neocons? Posted by Orrin Judd at October 3, 2005 9:17 AM
The libs see the writing on the wall and want to get ahead of Bush pulling troops out before the election and claim credit. We'll have to see if that works.
Posted by: AWW at October 3, 2005 11:05 AMThe plan is nothing more or less than an outline of how things will shake out as Iraqi grunts come on line. Its promulgators have stolen a march by proposing a formula for long-term American presence.
I continue to be apalled by how little discussion I am seeing of the future shape of the allied total force structure in SW Asia. By not discussing the long run other than to engage in vague, "Vietnamization" platitudes anout Iraqis taking over, the administration is setting itself up for looking inept and planless.
The choice is not just that between status quo and bug-out. That there has been so little discussion of long-term plans is itself alaming. Inability to talk about serious business is a little too "compassionate": it is almost "kinder and gentler," and we know where that road leads.
Posted by: Lou Gots at October 3, 2005 12:22 PM"These are the progressives? How do they differ from neocons?"
Amen, and a point I'm always making: your bizarre yoking of the left/reform Dems with the Dem establishment reveals profound limitations in discernment on the right.
Posted by: Rick Perlstein at October 3, 2005 1:31 PM"The plan is nothing more or less than an outline of how things will shake out as Iraqi grunts come on line."
Oh, and by, the way, any adjustments in any of your Iraq War rationalizations given the new administration reports that the number of such grunts on line has shrunk from 3000 to 1000? At this rate, we leave in 2005+infinity.
Posted by: Rick Perlstein at October 3, 2005 1:34 PMI'm still waiting for US to leave Germany and SorK. Been there since before I was born.....
Posted by: Sandy P at October 3, 2005 1:47 PMRick:
We'll leave because it will help the situation, not because of any number of Iraqi troops.
Posted by: oj at October 3, 2005 1:52 PMJust that he was married to one.
Posted by: David Cohen at October 3, 2005 2:08 PMAnd after HillaryCare blew up in her face he swung way Right.
Posted by: oj at October 3, 2005 2:13 PMFor the Dems and Rick to be happy, the "Grunts" coming online have to be trained to US standards. That is not going to happen because it isn't necessary or even possible in the time frame that exists. The Iraqi forces will not have to operate under our constraints or fight to our level of skill. They will be able to take the fight to the terrorists and Bathists with a legitimacy and vehemence that we cannot. As one of the generals recently stated, it isn't necessary that their soldiers be as good as ours, only that they be better than the ones they will be fighting. I don't think that will be a problem.
Posted by: Patrick H at October 3, 2005 4:10 PMIf "U.S. standard" means "without being babysat by U.S. soldiers," well, yes: that's a reasonable standard, and the one the admin now admits only one battalion fits.
If you think we'll leave in 2006 I have a ARVN rifle to sell you. Never fired, and only dropped once.
Posted by: Rick Perlstein at October 3, 2005 4:59 PMThe South fought rather well until Kennedy and the rest of your guys pulled the rug out from under them.
Posted by: oj at October 3, 2005 5:06 PMPlus ça change ...
Posted by: David Cohen at October 3, 2005 5:11 PMDid the Hillbilly mention his plan for extricating our troops from Bosnia, perchance?
Posted by: obc at October 3, 2005 5:12 PMLet me see if I have this straight, Rick. In one breath you're complaining that we can't tell the difference between, say, Howard Dean and Martin Sheen; in the next, you're boasting that you can't tell the difference between an Iraqi soldier and an ARVN. And you're exactly right: you do all look alike to us. You certainly all sound alike. As for the status of the Iraqi Army, here's LTG Petraeus's take. Note the distinction between Level 1 and Level 2 readiness includes things like battalion-level planning, which is typically done by officers and NCOs with 12-15 years' experience. It's likely that the three battalions that were Level 1-ready have given up some people to other units to bring them up to Level 2. We do the same with our own units.
Posted by: joe shropshire at October 3, 2005 7:50 PM... I have a ARVN rifle to sell you. Never fired, and only dropped once."
Those things happen when the people who were your allies have a change of govenment and they switch sides to support your enemy instead. You end up getting shot in the back faster than Ted Kennedy can swim for help.
Raoul: Yeah, good clean fun is one thing, but the fact that Rick supported John "the Communists will only kill a few thousand after we turn tail and run" Kerry for the presidency does put a different spin on his contempt for ARVN.
Posted by: David Cohen at October 3, 2005 10:13 PM