September 19, 2005

ISN'T KOREA HIS PARTICULAR FIELD OF EXPERTISE? (via Kevin Whited):

Guerrilla Negotiating: The North Korea talks are in trouble—and this time we can't blame George Bush. (Fred Kaplan, Sept. 16, 2005, Slate)

The North Korean nuclear talks may be headed toward a collapse, and this time anyway, it isn't George W. Bush's fault.

What's the problem? And can anything be done to solve it? [...]

Clinton's emissaries had to sit through 50 negotiating sessions to hammer out the Agreed Framework. Bush's will have to endure the same, if not more. As the North Koreans realize, Bush has no good alternatives to talking. His advisers have long deemed a military attack as too risky. The U.N. Security Council is unlikely to approve sanctions, as certainly China and probably Russia would veto such a move.

The danger—not just for us but for the North Koreans as well—is that Kim and his emissaries will hold out for too long. "They're terrible judges of timing," Pritchard said.


Nearly as bas as Mr. Kaplan, though, in fairness, predicting the behavior of a psychotic isn't always easy.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 19, 2005 3:02 PM
Comments

Absolute rulers tend toward the psychotic.

"There is something exceedingly ridiculous in the composition of monarchy; it first excludes a man from the means of information, yet empowers him to act in cases where the highest judgment is required. The state of a king shuts him from the world, yet the business of a king requires him to know it thoroughly; wherefore the different parts, unnaturally opposing and destroying each other, prove the whole character to be absurd and useless."

Common Sense, Tom Paine

Posted by: Brandon at September 19, 2005 3:24 PM

Beautiful sense of timing that this comes out just as an agreement is announced.

Posted by: AWW at September 19, 2005 3:26 PM

AWW: you beat me to it.

Posted by: Mike Morley at September 19, 2005 3:35 PM

Whether there is an 'agreement' or not, Kaplan has finally noticed that NK is an intractable problem because of THEIR side, not ours. And that has taken, what - 13 years? Anyone who spent 30 minutes reviewing NK behavior since 1945 would have realized this in about 5 minutes.

But that is too much for the nuance-addled left.

Posted by: jim hamlen at September 19, 2005 3:41 PM

It's great how liberal foreign policy analysts have to read the newspapers to find out what's happening in their area of expertise. Brings to mind the Princeton's former Soviet expert, Stephen Cohen, who found out the Soviet Union collapsed when he saw it in his morning newspaper.

Posted by: erp at September 19, 2005 4:20 PM

Erp,
I know people from the original OSS, the brightest and the best from and of academia, and that was their primary job, clipping news reports for analysis. Still being done in the CIA last I heard. So much for intelligence.

Posted by: Genecis at September 20, 2005 9:17 AM
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