August 23, 2005

THERE'LL BE PLENTY OF ROOM INSIDE THE CUBE:

Japan's population may shrink faster than expected (Reuters, 8/23/05)

Deaths exceeded births in Japan by 31,034 in the first half of the year, the Health Ministry said on Tuesday, raising the possibility that the population will start to shrink in 2005, two years earlier than previously forecast.

Japan's falling birth rate and ageing population have fuelled concerns about future growth in the world's second-largest economy, and experts have previously said the population was likely to start shrinking in 2007. [...]

The ageing population has raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's pension system, which the government is trying to reform by cutting benefits and raising the contribution rate for individuals.

Japan's fertility rate -- the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime -- hit a postwar low of 1.288 in 2004. Demographers generally consider a level of 2.1 as the "replacement rate" needed to keep a population from declining.


Their population actually declined last year, though it's something of a technicality--they count students studying overseas and folks working abroad in the decrease.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 23, 2005 3:42 PM
Comments

Utah has the same problem - apparently the US Census Bureau doesn't count the thousands of young men and women serving religious missions outside of Utah as being "residents" of Utah, despite the fact that they left from Utah, and their families expect them to return.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 23, 2005 3:52 PM

The results of a new study on fertility rates of the major economies was in the WSJ today. USA is atop the list at 2.0, France is close behind at 1.9. I wouldn't trumpet US superiority too much, 2.0 is below replacement.

India is at 3.0, though that is coming down. Eastern Asia has the lowest rates, Korea and Japan are below China.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at August 23, 2005 4:18 PM

The French will get over replacement rate soon, they've got enough Muslims to make up for the natives.

Posted by: oj at August 23, 2005 5:25 PM

What? Have they stopped eating beef?

Posted by: David Cohen at August 23, 2005 11:15 PM
« MAKE JOHN GALT A FANTASY PICK AND HE'D WIN: | Main | DOES ANYONE EDIT THE TIMES?: »