THEY CALL THE WIND DUBYA (via Leigh Cartwright):

Was Bush right after all?: As Syria pulls out of Lebanon, and the winds of change blow through the Middle East, this is the difficult question that opponents of the Iraq war are having to face (Rupert Cornwell, 08 March 2005, Independent uk)

It is barely six weeks since the US President delivered his second inaugural address, a paean to liberty and democracy that espoused the goal of "ending tyranny in our world". Reactions around the world ranged from alarm to amused scorn, from fears of a new round of "regime changes" imposed by an all-powerful American military, to suspicions in the salons of Europe that this time Mr Bush, never celebrated for his grasp of world affairs, had finally lost it. No one imagined that events would so soon cause the President's opponents around the world to question whether he had got it right. [...]

The winds of change

Libya

No sign yet of democracy arriving in the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamiriyah. Although once regarded by the West as a pariah state, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's decision to take responsibility for the Lockerbie bombings and renounce WMD brought it back into the fold. However it remains a dictatorship.

Palestinian Authority

The post-Arafat era has begun. Palestinians voted for a new president in January's free elections and a parliamentary poll is set for July. New leader Mahmoud Abbas is raising hopes of peace but it is still unclear whether he will be able to exert control over militant groups and negotiate a territorial deal with Israel.

Lebanon

Assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri acted as a catalyst for change. Syria today begins withdrawing its forces to the eastern Bekaa Valley. Free elections may take place in May after protests brought Black down the pro-Syrian Sea government. Not known when a final pull-out of Syrian forces will take place.

Syria

Washington and Damascus are locked in a dialogue of the deaf. President Bashar Assad refuses to relinquish his trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinians) as long as conflict with Israel over Golan Heights continues. Blamed for the murder of Rafik Hariri, Assad has reluctantly ordered his forces in Lebanon to pull back.

Iraq

Bush and his allies believe democracy is finally flowering in Iraq. Eight million voted to elect government in January. A constitution enshrining personal, political and religious freedoms is to be drawn up by October. But a bloody insurgency continues to mar progress. The under-representation of Sunnis in the new government will be a problem.

Egypt

President Hosni Mubarak -- unopposed in power since 1981 -- surprised the West in February announcing multi-candidate presidential elections for September. Health troubles have sparked succession worries though Mubarak has denied a plan for dynastic succession by his son Gamal. A close US ally, Egypt receives $3bn a year in tied aid.

Saudi Arabia

Fearful of change, accustomed to a system in which it holds enormous power and privileges, the Saudi royal family views serious reform as a risk not worth taking, although the greatest risk to its survival comes from doing nothing at all. Elections for local councils were recently held for the first time, but women were barred from voting.

Yemen

Yemen is a fragile not a failed state. A nascent democracy with the most open political system in the Arabian Peninsula, its government has shown a general commitment to developing the instruments of a modern state and has cooperated with international efforts to uproot the al-Qa'ida network. Presidential elections planned for this year.

Kuwait

Kuwait's parliament has agreed to speed up moves towards a law to grant women the same political rights as men. The decision came amid noisy street rallies by women activists. The country's ruler, Sheikh Jabir al-Ahmad al-Sabah, is moving slowly towards giving women the vote. But political parties remain outlawed.

Bahrain

Voted in 2001 to become a constitutional monarchy with elected parliament and independent judiciary.

Qatar

Greater political openness since current head of state came to power in 1995. Democratic elections were held in 1999.