RHETORIC CREATES REALITY:

Iraq on the Road to Democracy (Amir Taheri, 2/19/05, Arab News)

An election that was not supposed to happen because terrorists and insurgents in Iraq, and their sympathizers in the West, did not want it has produced results that the doomsters that fought to prevent it did not expect.

First, the massive boycott of the polls, predicted by Saddam nostalgics and other members of the Hate-America coalition, did not take place. Last month almost two-thirds of Iraqi voters went to the polls in the first free election in their history.

Now, the final results, announced Sunday, show that the doomsters were wrong a second time.

Lots of things that the opponents of the liberation of Iraq had prayed for did not happen.

There was no green tidal wave of radical Shiism that was supposed to transform Iraq into a carbon copy of the Kohmeinist republic in Iran. The United Iraqi Alliance, a list endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Muhammad Sistani, the primus inter pares of the Shiite clerics, did win 48 percent of the votes. But this is far short of the two-third majority that the Shiites could have won had they all voted for the list. In any case, the UIA list was not presented as a confessional ticket and included Arab Sunnis, Kurds, and Christians. It was an alliance of half a dozen parties and groups, including radical secularists.

The supposed total exclusion of the Arab Sunnis from the transitional National Assembly did not happen either. Arab Sunnis account for some 15 percent of the Iraqi population and are a majority in four out of 18 provinces. In three of those provinces the voter turnout was below 30 percent, and in one, Anbar, dropped to two percent. But only half of the Arab Sunnis live in those provinces. The other half, in Baghdad and other major cities, voted in larger numbers.

Based on their demographic strength, the Arab Sunnis should have 42 seats in the 275-seat transitional National Assembly. The final results show that the new assembly will, in fact, include 49 Arab Sunnis. Of these 40 were elected on the Shiite-led and the Kurdish lists plus the list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, himself a Shiite. Five were elected on a list led by interim President Ghazi Al-Yawar, an Arab Sunni, while four more won within smaller alliances. If we add up the Kurds, who are also Sunni Muslims, at least 110 members of the newly elected assembly are Sunnis. [...]

With the Iraqi election as a model, it would not be easy for Syria to orchestrate another fake election in Lebanon in May. The Khomeinists in Iran would find it hard to present another pre-arranged election in June as a genuine reflection of the popular will. The Egyptians would have a hard time producing another 99.99 percent majority in yet another single-candidate election next year. In Libya Col. Qaddafi might find it harder to appoint his son as prime minister with a mere acclamation from his henchmen.

The momentum for representative government continues to quicken, Lebanese Opposition Declares 'Uprising for Independence' (VOA News, 18 February 2005)

Lebanon's opposition has called for an "uprising for independence" and demanded the country's pro-Syrian government step down.

Opposition leader Walid Jumblatt told al-Jazeera television that pro-Syrian officials should leave Lebanon and the country should become independent and democratic.

The bold words from opposition officials follow increasing calls from abroad for Syria to end its long military and political involvement in Lebanon.

Friday in Beirut, Lebanon's tourism minister quit, complaining that the pro-Syrian government could not resolve the country's "dangerous situation."

Togo's Opposition Demands President Step Down (Nico Colombant, 19 February 2005, VOA News)

More than 20,000 protesters have taken to the streets in Togo demanding the military-installed president Faure Gnassingbe step down. The son of the country's late long-ruling leader says he will be a candidate in elections to be held within 60 days. [...]

Opposition leaders who organized Saturday's protest say Togo should not be a dynasty. Mr. Gnassingbe replaced his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema, who died earlier this month after 38 years in power.

Another protest took place at the presidential palace, where several thousand government supporters heard a speech in which Mr. Gnassingbe said he would be a candidate and ensure stability in the run-up to the vote.

One of his supporters said he was relieved to hear this and he hoped the international community would help Togolese in this transition period.

Parliament had changed the constitution, allowing Mr. Gnassingbe to finish out his father's term until 2008, but his son has now bowed to domestic and outside pressure to allow quick elections as stipulated previously.

Mr. Gnassingbe made the concession to hold a presidential election within 60 days in a speech late Friday. He also said legislative elections would be held soon.

-Burma Opens Constitutional Conference Despite Opposition Boycott (Scott Bobb, 17 February 2005, VOA News)

Burma's military government has reopened a national convention to draft a new constitution. The military leadership says its wants to bring democracy to Burma, but critics say some important opposition groups have been excluded from the process.

A senior member of the Burmese military junta, General Thein Sein, Thursday reopened the national constitutional convention. He says his government wants an orderly transition to democracy.

General Thein Sein says the government wants to establish a durable, disciplined democracy that is free from terrorism and anarchy, which he says afflict some democratic countries.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 19, 2005 4:58 PM